The roster is set… for now. 

While the regular season is about to begin, it still feels like there is quite a bit to sort through in Toronto, but in the meantime, we have our first look at the new faces arriving and some minor moves to contemplate.

The Leafs‘ initial roster has been set, but given that Jacob Quillan is on it for now, it is sure to change. Quillan clearly won’t be on the team to start this season and needs more AHL time to develop his game. PuckPedia quickly outlined the likely next steps for the Leafs:

We’ll see how the Leafs handle Easton Cowan, but it’s really the last piece to sort through at this point. After appearing to be a lock to start the season on a line with Steven Lorentz and Scott Laughton, Cowan watched Laughton fall injured and Nick Robertson play really well, and suddenly, his spot is in question. In the first practice post-training camp, Cowan was not in the top 12.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve been vocal about my belief that Cowan should start in the AHL, see a pile of ice time, play in every situation, and develop away from the Toronto limelight. Part of my reasoning is that I don’t believe he has leapt off the page in preseason. He has been solid to the point where fans should be optimistic about his future, to be sure, but he’s not been exceptional to the point where he should bypass the AHL altogether. 

Cowan ultimately finished the preseason with just two assists in five games, and he didn’t exactly have a ton of chances to score, although he created some good looks. He wasn’t dangerous shift to shift, or period to period, and most of the compliments lobbed his way by the coaching staff referenced playing safe/smart hockey. It’s fine that the Leafs want to play that way, but is this the ideal development path to send their best prospect down? It’s not as though Cowan has ever played a pro hockey game and established his ability to score above the OHL level.

William Nylander, by comparison, came up after he torched the AHL with 45 points in 38 games. Even new teammate Matias Maccelli made the jump after he produced 57 points in 47 AHL games. These are quality offensive wingers (to varying degrees) who established themselves in the AHL first. 

To play devil’s advocate, last week, in an interview with Darren Dreger, Craig Berube name-dropped two players he coached, Sean Couturier and Robert Thomas, as good young prospects who jumped right into the NHL. 

First off, Couturier was once a consensus top-six pick who fell to eighth overall – still significantly higher than Cowan — and immediately made the NHL while playing 14 minutes per night as a rookie. Due to the abbreviated lockout season the following year, Couturier ended up in the AHL for half a season anyway.

Robert Thomas is potentially a better comparable, although he was a year younger than Cowan is now and produced four points in six preseason games when he made the Blues. Thomas’ first month in St. Louis was tough; he played just six of 10 games and averaged 9:07 per night. However, he played 64 games, produced 32 points, and averaged 13:27 per game the rest of the way. 

Both Couturier and Thomas played proper top-nine minutes and worked their way up from there. They generally weren’t stuck on the fourth line. 

If we add Matthew Knies’ name to this mix, he averaged 13:41 as a rookie and was on the top line roughly halfway through the season. He received plenty of ice time and offensive opportunity, and he grew into an impact role in the NHL from there. 

So far, Cowan appears slated for more fourth-line usage, no power-play time, and is on a veteran team where he generally won’t see the ice in key situations. Of course, this could change; Thomas ended up winning the Cup as a rookie while playing 13 minutes a night in the spring. But for a 20-year-old who will inevitably make rookie mistakes, this is a much tougher market than St. Louis or Philly, and a Leafs team that’s trying to win it all right now.

It also should be noted that the Leafs’ current lineup alternatives include a player the team can generally bank on to score 15 goals (Robertson) and a 700+ NHL game veteran who won’t make rookie mistakes even if he won’t produce a ton (Calle Jarnkrok).

For me, a lot of this debate comes down to this question: Could the Leafs find roughly 13 minutes per night for Cowan in the NHL?

It appears cooler heads have prevailed with the opening lineup so far, but we’ll see how Cowan is handled early on. We’ve discussed this subject extensively for a reason: it’s crucial that the organization gets the most out of Cowan. They’ve traded away three consecutive first-round picks, and Cowan is their most promising prospect. They are by no means flush with prospects with his kind of upside.

We’ve seen with Matthew Knies recently how significant it can be to hit on a pick and add to the core. Cowan should be next in line in some capacity, but Leafs brass have to do right by him.

Programming Note: Keep an eye out for my Notes, Quotes, Tweets of the Week, and ‘Five Things I think I’d Do’ later today as we prepare for puck drop on opening night of the 2025-26 season.

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