There are a few different ways to look at this 2-1 overtime win for the Maple Leafs in Columbus, and the correct take will be revealed in time.
One is that process-wise, this was closer to an illustration of Brad Treliving’s “even in games we’ve won, we haven’t won the game” expression than it was a complete performance by the Leafs. The high-danger chances were recorded at 9-8 Toronto, per Natural Stat Trick, but the Blue Jackets outshot the Leafs 36-24 and out-attempted them 53-37. In the run of play, you’d be hard-pressed to argue the Leafs won any of the periods or tilted the ice in their favour for notable stretches of time. Joseph Woll, who stopped 35 of 36 and saved nearly three goals above expected, was their best player.
The glass-half-full take is that the goaltending is (critically) turning a corner after the struggles in net earlier in the year, and with the team just a few minutes away from its first shutout loss of the season (just as it got its forward group fully healthy again!), they dug in and pulled it out of the fire with a huge Easton Cowan tying goal and William Nylander overtime winner. Maybe it can serve as a turning point of sorts, settling the team down/building some confidence to start this road trip as the Leafs try to now gel with a fully healthy forward group.
Only time will tell.
Post-Game Notes
– The only Leafs line that was tilting the ice in the right direction with some consistency in this game was the Easton Cowan – John Tavares – William Nylander trio, which was Toronto’s only to come out ahead on five-on-five shots, shot attempts, and scoring chances, and ultimately, they came up with a huge tying goal late in the third. It’s probably the best five-on-five possession trio the team has assembled this season, as the early numbers bear out. There is high collective hockey IQ on this line, two good puck transporters in Cowan and Nylander, and a great below-the-harshmarks player in Tavares. The goal was another case of Tavares just willing the team along with his effort/strength on the puck down low, and Nylander and Cowan (great finish) took it from there. It could be a big goal to look back on in the course of the Leafs’ season. Or not. We’ll soon find out.
– The first period officiating was a travesty. Oliver Ekman-Larsson picking up the extra roughing call instead of off-setting minors was dubious, but Dakota Mermis taking the lone penalty in his scrum against Zach Aston-Reese was full-on criminal. ZAR got his stick up high to initiate the tussle, tackled Mermis to the ice, took a shot at Mermis when Mermis was down, and then headlocked him until the refs jumped in. It should’ve been four minutes to ZAR and two to Mermis, or just two to ZAR, but certainly, there is no planet on which it should’ve been just two to Mermis.
Those three Leaf penalties made it difficult to fully assess the first period properly (it was probably the Leafs’ best, fwiw), other than to say the Leafs’ PK looks good right now, led by the duo of Scott Laughton and Steven Lorentz. The PK is 14 for its last 15 and is 8-for-8 in the last three games. It’s no coincidence Woll has been in net for this stretch of 90+% killing, but the PK is doing a good job in a lot of areas, starting with winning draws, led by Laughton’s 71% on the PK since his return. Laughton broke up two entries at the line on his own, and Lorentz has made a bunch of good shorthanded plays of late.
Matthews ended up with nearly two minutes of shorthanded ice time in the six minutes of kills, in large part because Nic Roy was in the box for one of the penalties, but they used Matthews-Knies as their third duo behind Lorentz-Laughton / Roy-Jarnkrok where they could, which is what they should be doing. Matthews’ role should be tertiary shorthanded as they try to get him rolling at five-on-five and the PP. Matthews played over 22 minutes before OT, and nearly 25 total, which is a lot in his return.
– To be fair, expectations needed to be kept in check in the first game in 15 days for Auston Matthews. He created a few moments where he threatened offensively — including when he connected on a few give-and-goes with Max Domi — he drew a penalty, and he put three shots on net, not including a goal post in the first period. After a rough start in the faceoff circle, he bounced back to win 60% on the night.
At the same time, shots were 11-2 Columbus in Matthews’ five-on-five minutes, and his primary matchup was the Charlie Coyle line (in the 3.5 five-on-five minutes with Matthews and Adam Fantilli on the ice, shot attempts were 11-0 Columbus). Certainly, the most dominant center in the game tonight was Fantilli. Despite those numbers, I thought it was a reasonable enough performance after a long layoff, but we’ll see how Matthews settles in from here. The Leafs need more than he’s given them this season from not just a production standpoint but also a play-driving perspective as they try to generate more offensive-zone time at five-on-five (not to mention what they need from him on the PP).
– Defensive play and checking continue to be mentioned the most by the coach, but the Leafs’ number one issue for me right now is their puck play on breakouts. They’re too often stalling out as they struggle to consistently make clean tape-to-tape plays out of their zone and through neutral ice that would allow them to build up the rink with speed and possession and play on offense. They end up looking slow and sloppy for too many spells within games, and they’re defending too much/defending without the chance to get into their structure, all stemming from the sloppy puck play. If you rewatch the sequence before the Roy penalty, where the Matthews line + Rielly-OEL bang their heads against the wall repeatedly, it’s really mystifying watching that much skill on the ice struggle so badly to move the puck up the ice cleanly. It’s all too common a sight from this team this season.
– Thought this was a pretty rough night for the bottom six overall at five-on-five, as by the eye test, they spent the majority of their shifts on their own half of the ice. By the numbers, the Leafs were out-attempted 21-7 at five-on-five with their bottom six on the ice (Robertson-Roy-McMann / Lorentz-Laughton-Jarnkrok).
With a healthy forward group, I think it’s now time to try to let some lines gel to some degree, but the bottom six made it tough to roll exactly the same lineup on Friday. At a minimum, I’d keep Knies-Matthews-Domi / Cowan-Tavares-Nylander / Lorentz-Laughton together. The other winger with Lorentz-Laughton, and Roy’s wingers, are definitely up in the air, with Maccelli and Joshua options to return from their scratches. With the numbers crunch now, the difficulty is who comes out?
Calle Jarnkrok is pointless in seven (minus-three), Bobby McMann is pointless in five (minus-four), and Nick Robertson is pointless in four (just two shots on goal and a minus-four). Robertson has earned more leeway than to scratch him already, but these calls are difficult now, and Berube has to find the right mix in his B6 with all of the cards now on the table. To be fair, Lorentz isn’t a lock, either, but he has been really solid on the first PK pair and has goals against St. Louis and Boston semi-recently.
Maybe, after seven losses in their previous eight, Berube just decides not to touch a lineup that actually won a game. We’ll see.
– Amid a decent game from Max Domi on the top line overall, he fanned on the pass to the point in the offensive zone prior to the 1-0 Columbus goal, but the Leafs shouldn’t have been in major danger there; you expect a save on the short-side shot by Zach Werenski. It feels wrong even pointing it out, given how good Joseph Woll was in this game overall. He’s given the Leafs .921 goaltending in five starts, and that understates the quality of his performances, considering he stood on his head vs. Montreal and left with an .840 after facing 21 shots in 33 minutes. Woll remains the biggest source of positivity for this Leafs team’s prospects of a turnaround. The save on the shorthanded 3-on-1 was massive with nine minutes left in the game, among a handful of other big ones.
– The latest wrinkle in the ongoing dysfunctional power play saga was a five-forward look. Interestingly, it’s got a brand new rookie in Easton Cowan on it when the Leafs have got OEL riding a seven-game point streak/10 points in his last 11. But the idea appears to be to let Matthews run it from the top, similar to Marner last season. It won’t last long if it gives up 3-on-1s and doesn’t create much of anything like tonight, but we’ll see where it goes from here.
On the first power play, Cowan cut into the middle for a shooting opportunity, hesitated with a lane open and Knies in a good position in front, and then put it into a shinpad. The power of his shot should/will need to improve over time (separate conversation), but maybe the huge game-tying goal will give him the confidence to use it more in the right moments, without hesitation.
While Cowan is still learning, I am not sure what Matthews or Nylander’s excuse is for not getting shots through, as there were a few more blocked tonight. The Leafs are top 10 in the league in shot attempts/60 on the power play, and bottom 10 in unblocked shots/60.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
