After getting a lot of media heat from Saturday night’s loss, the Leafs had the perfect response.
They played what was, by the numbers, easily the most dominant single performance from a Leaf team in a long time, as they allowed Buffalo just ten shots on net, and had over 80% of the chances at even strength. Through most of two periods, they were playing with fire a little, not having turned the domination into any goals, but in the third Buffalo ended up paying for their struggles, and the Leafs were able to win easily.
| Status | Overall | ES | ESCL | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | TOR | BUF | % | TOR | BUF | % | TOR | BUF | % |
| 1 | 14 | 1 | 93.3% | 8 | 1 | 88.9% | 8 | 1 | 88.9% |
| 2 | 11 | 2 | 84.6% | 5 | 2 | 71.4% | 5 | 2 | 71.4% |
| 3 | 6 | 1 | 85.7% | 5 | 0 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | - |
| Total | 31 | 4 | 88.6% | 18 | 3 | 85.7% | 13 | 3 | 81.3% |
These numbers are nuts; to call this game one-sided underestimates the gap between the two teams. Buffalo posed almost no offensive threat all game, and never really looked like scoring a goal. Since I started tracking chances at the start of last season, this was the best defensive performance from the Leafs by a wide margin, the only time I have them conceding single digit chances against in a game. The thirty-one chances for are also tied for the most in one game I’ve tracked.
Were the Leafs that good or the Sabres just that terrible? The numbers suggest it was an intersection of both.
Details are below.
| Club | St | P | Time | TSc | Osc | Note | Toronto | Buffalo | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | ES | 1 | 19:49 | 0 | 0 | Kadri wide from Kessel | 43 | 81 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 63 | 80 | 26 | 4 | 57 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 1 | 17:54 | 0 | 0 | Lupul drives wide | 43 | 81 | 19 | 44 | 46 | 45 | 63 | 80 | 26 | 6 | 41 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 1 | 12:33 | 0 | 0 | Lupul drives post | 43 | 81 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 41 | 61 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 1 | 12:03 | 0 | 0 | Rielly from Winnik | 24 | 26 | 18 | 44 | 46 | 45 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 55 | 61 | 34 |
| BUF | ES | 1 | 09:51 | 0 | 0 | Hodgson drives | 42 | 71 | 21 | 12 | 51 | 45 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 55 | 61 | 34 |
| TOR | SH | 1 | 07:36 | 0 | 0 | Van Riemsdyk drives post | 24 | 21 | 4 | 44 | 45 | - | 19 | 12 | 21 | 41 | 57 | 34 |
| TOR | PP | 1 | 06:00 | 0 | 0 | Franson from Kessel | 42 | 81 | 21 | 4 | 51 | 45 | 28 | 4 | 57 | 34 | - | - |
| TOR | PP | 1 | 05:28 | 0 | 0 | Franson from Gardiner | 42 | 81 | 21 | 4 | 51 | 45 | 28 | 4 | 41 | 57 | 34 | - |
| TOR | PP | 1 | 05:08 | 0 | 0 | Clarkson wide from Kadri | 43 | 19 | 71 | 3 | 44 | 45 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 61 | 34 | - |
| TOR | PP | 1 | 05:02 | 0 | 0 | Kadri from Lupul | 43 | 19 | 71 | 3 | 44 | 45 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 61 | 34 | - |
| TOR | PP | 1 | 04:58 | 0 | 0 | Kadri from rebound | 43 | 19 | 71 | 3 | 44 | 45 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 61 | 34 | - |
| TOR | ES | 1 | 04:54 | 0 | 0 | Lupul from loose puck | 43 | 19 | 71 | 3 | 44 | 45 | 8 | 17 | 21 | 6 | 61 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 1 | 01:00 | 0 | 0 | Lupul drives | 43 | 81 | 19 | 44 | 46 | 45 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 55 | 61 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 1 | 00:54 | 0 | 0 | Lupul from rebound | 43 | 81 | 19 | 44 | 46 | 45 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 55 | 61 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 1 | 00:44 | 0 | 0 | Kessel from loose puck | 43 | 81 | 19 | 44 | 46 | 45 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 55 | 61 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 2 | 17:28 | 0 | 0 | Van Riemsdyk drives | 42 | 71 | 21 | 12 | 51 | 45 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 4 | 57 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 2 | 15:32 | 0 | 0 | Kadri wide from loose puck | 43 | 81 | 19 | 44 | 46 | 45 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 55 | 61 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 2 | 15:24 | 0 | 0 | Kadri from rebound of Rielly shot | 43 | 81 | 19 | 44 | 46 | 45 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 55 | 61 | 34 |
| BUF | ES | 2 | 11:56 | 0 | 0 | Ennis deflects Stewart shot | 24 | 18 | 39 | 4 | 46 | 45 | 63 | 80 | 26 | 4 | 57 | 34 |
| TOR | PP | 2 | 09:54 | 0 | 0 | Bozak wide from Franson | 42 | 81 | 21 | 4 | 51 | 45 | 8 | 82 | 6 | 61 | 34 | - |
| TOR | PP | 2 | 09:42 | 0 | 0 | Van Riemsdyk drives wide | 42 | 81 | 21 | 4 | 51 | 45 | 8 | 82 | 6 | 61 | 34 | - |
| TOR | PP | 2 | 08:59 | 0 | 0 | Lupul drives | 43 | 19 | 71 | 3 | 44 | 45 | 17 | 28 | 4 | 57 | 34 | - |
| TOR | ES | 2 | 08:28 | 0 | 0 | Rielly from Kadri | 43 | 19 | 71 | 3 | 44 | 45 | 8 | 28 | 21 | 4 | 57 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 2 | 08:24 | 0 | 0 | Clarkson wide from Kadri | 43 | 19 | 71 | 3 | 44 | 45 | 8 | 28 | 21 | 4 | 57 | 34 |
| BUF | ES | 2 | 06:10 | 0 | 0 | Stewart deflects Ennis shot wide | 42 | 81 | 21 | 12 | 51 | 45 | 63 | 80 | 26 | 6 | 41 | 34 |
| TOR | PP | 2 | 03:31 | 0 | 0 | Bozak from Kessel | 42 | 81 | 21 | 4 | 51 | 45 | 17 | 28 | 4 | 57 | 34 | - |
| TOR | EN | 2 | 01:37 | 0 | 0 | Lupul from Rielly | 42 | 43 | 19 | 71 | 4 | 44 | 12 | 82 | 4 | 41 | 61 | 34 |
| TOR | PP | 2 | 00:50 | 0 | 0 | GOAL! Bozak drives | 42 | 81 | 21 | 44 | 51 | 45 | 8 | 21 | 4 | 57 | 34 | - |
| TOR | ES | 3 | 15:42 | 1 | 0 | GOAL! Kessel from loose puck | 25 | 81 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 28 | 21 | 82 | 55 | 61 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 3 | 14:42 | 2 | 0 | GOAL! Van Riemsdyk from Rielly | 42 | 71 | 21 | 44 | 46 | 45 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 6 | 41 | 34 |
| TOR | PP | 3 | 13:23 | 3 | 0 | Bozak deflects Gardiner shot wide | 42 | 81 | 21 | 4 | 51 | 45 | 17 | 28 | 4 | 57 | 34 | - |
| TOR | ES | 3 | 11:41 | 3 | 0 | Lupul from loose puck | 43 | 19 | 71 | 12 | 44 | 45 | 19 | 23 | 21 | 4 | 57 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 3 | 10:43 | 3 | 0 | GOAL! Gardiner wraparound | 25 | 26 | 47 | 12 | 51 | 45 | 28 | 12 | 82 | 6 | 41 | 34 |
| BUF | SH | 3 | 05:09 | 4 | 0 | Gionta deflects Benoit shot | 24 | 21 | 44 | 46 | 45 | - | 23 | 12 | 44 | 57 | 61 | 34 |
| TOR | ES | 3 | 02:22 | 4 | 0 | Kessel wide from Kadri | 43 | 81 | 19 | 44 | 51 | 45 | 63 | 80 | 26 | 4 | 57 | 34 |
The player-by-player data:
| Player | F | A | D | TOI | ESF | ESA | ESD | EVTOI | ESCLF | ESCLA | ESCLD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phaneuf | 10 | 0 | 10 | 16:20 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 13:20 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Franson | 11 | 1 | 10 | 22:00 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14:49 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Robidas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15:56 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15:29 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Panik | 1 | 1 | 0 | 09:23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 09:23 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Lupul | 19 | 0 | 19 | 17:05 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 14:02 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| Van Riemsdyk | 10 | 3 | 7 | 19:02 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12:41 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Holland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11:06 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 09:36 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Santorelli | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12:21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12:21 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Winnik | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:07 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11:39 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Frattin | 0 | 1 | -1 | 08:21 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 08:21 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Bozak | 10 | 2 | 8 | 18:04 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12:40 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Kadri | 18 | 0 | 18 | 17:36 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 14:10 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| Rielly | 20 | 1 | 19 | 22:27 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 18:04 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Polak | 8 | 2 | 6 | 20:05 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 18:19 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| Komarov | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13:27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11:59 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardiner | 10 | 2 | 8 | 23:25 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16:30 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Clarkson | 11 | 1 | 10 | 18:06 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 14:29 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Kessel | 17 | 1 | 16 | 18:44 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 13:08 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| Bernier | 30 | 4 | 26 | 59:25 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 47:37 | 13 | 3 | 10 |
The new line combinations ended up seeing Lupul and Kadri both put up staggering +11s at ES close, and neither was on for a Buffalo chance all night. Those are the highest I’ve seen in any game since I started tracking Leaf scoring chances. Kessel didn’t quite equal those numbers, but was a major driver of chances as well. In fact, that top line drove virtually all of the Leafs‘ great play, as none of the other lines generated many chances. In particular, JVR and Bozak, who both ended up scoring goals, weren’t consistent scoring threats the way the Kessel line was, while the third line was also quiet offensively.
Morgan Rielly had a great game again, up there with Kadri and Lupul in terms of chances. He was on the ice for twenty total chances between ES and PP, the best I’ve had for any Leaf player while tracking chances. Polak also had great numbers, and Dion Phaneuf, despite an injury scare, was another player not on for a Buffalo chance.
Cumulative numbers this season:
| Overall | Pos | # | ESF | ESA | ESD | ES% | AvESTOI | ESClF | ESClA | ESClD | ESCL% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winnik | F | 9 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 49.0% | 12:25 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 59.3% |
| Lupul | F | 9 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 51.3% | 15:25 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 58.7% |
| Kadri | F | 9 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 49.4% | 13:48 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 56.3% |
| Rielly | D | 9 | 48 | 42 | 6 | 53.3% | 15:34 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 55.4% |
| Franson | D | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 50.0% | 14:20 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 52.9% |
| Komarov | F | 9 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 56.5% | 11:53 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 52.0% |
| Clarkson | F | 9 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 54.2% | 12:42 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 51.5% |
| Phaneuf | D | 9 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 49.5% | 15:39 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 49.1% |
| Bernier | G | 7 | 73 | 81 | -8 | 47.4% | 40:29 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 47.0% |
| Santorelli | F | 9 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 55.3% | 12:16 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 46.2% |
| Kessel | F | 9 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 47.7% | 15:28 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 46.0% |
| Gardiner | D | 7 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 53.8% | 16:49 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 44.4% |
| Reimer | G | 4 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44.3% | 36:35 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 42.9% |
| Van Riemsdyk | F | 9 | 39 | 52 | -13 | 42.9% | 13:47 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 41.5% |
| Bozak | F | 9 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 46.7% | 14:20 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 41.2% |
| Polak | D | 9 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 37.5% | 16:38 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 40.0% |
| Percy | D | 7 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 37.9% | 14:32 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 37.0% |
| Robidas | D | 8 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 41.3% | 14:46 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 34.4% |
| Holland | F | 9 | 9 | 25 | -16 | 26.5% | 07:44 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 29.4% |
| Panik | F | 8 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 21.7% | 07:02 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 27.3% |
| Kozun | F | 5 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 21.7% | 07:25 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 18.8% |
| Frattin | F | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16.7% | 06:46 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0.0% |
After such a dominant game, there are now seven Leafs above the 50% mark at ES close, headed by Lupul and Kadri, who were the biggest movers.
