A funny thing happened on the way to Marc Savard fantasy analysis that killed a myth …
With the Phil Kessel deal, an overblown reaction was the glaring ommission of a Marc Savard caliber pivot in Toronto to get him the puck. Who would set him up? Who can replace Savard getting the puck to Kessel?
There’s fact: there is no Savard.
Then there’s myth … Kessel will miss Savard .. or opposite?
The analysis was conducted in an effort to figure out just how influential was Savard to Kessel’s season. He assisted on 54% of Kessel’s goals, while attempting to separate how much was because of each player’s individual talent, and how much on the elite playmaking vision and distribution skills of Savard?
Criteria:
The type of isolated goal was one where Savard had most influence in making the goal happen over Kessel’s ability:
Video Source:
NHL Video of each goal
Youtube compilation of 42 goals
In 2008-09, Savard assisted on 26 of Kessel’s 42 goals:
Goal #: 3,4,7-12,14,15,20-29,32,34-36,41,42
Goals Kessel scored without Savard getting a point:
Goal#: 1,2,5,6,13,16-19,30,31,33,37-40
Goals that met criteria:
#20 — Savard crossed the line into the zone and catching Kessel on the fly on the right wing with a pass between defenseman’s stick and legs with Kessel finishing with wrist shot
#24 — Savard comes off the half boards, fakes a slap shot, freezing defenseman and cuts to the goal, finding Kessel across the slot with a beauty pass for a one-timer
#25 — Savard forces defenseman back towards the net, and criss-crosses in close through slot with Kessel traveling into the slot as Savard vacates giving him a good pass (Kessel’s wrist shot does the rest)
#26 — On a broken play just inside the zone, Savard finds Kessel streaking down right wing and gets him the puck quick and sharp for a tap-in.
#32 — Savard does the heavy forechecking, wins the puck from behind the red line in the corner and finds Kessel in front who takes two whacks and scores .. all Savard – workmanlike effort.
Playoffs
#41 — Savard picks up turned over puck by Chara’s efforts in the neutral zone curls in with big defenseman on a 2-on-2 while Kessel trails and uses speed to make it a 3-on-2 .. Savard finds him in the slot in a perfect spot for his wrist shot.
Six goals .. the total 14% of Savard’s contributions were converted by Kessel for goals falling under that criteria. The next time someone says how he will struggle without Savard, just think, six goals.
Maybe, without the finisher in Kessel, Savard could struggle.
Flaw
This is subjective interpretation of the analysis, but video is right there in the links to measure for your individual taste of what is influential.
There is one general flaw to the analysis here .. video took goals into consideration while dismissing all the chances Savard set up, but with similar criteria as above, that weren’t converted. This has a direct influence by numbers with goals as a ratio of chances, with a percentage of opportunities set up through the chemistry of both players with only six finding mesh.
The commonality throughout the analysis was that Kessel seemed to be the right position to accept a pass and it wasn’t always Savard setting him up. Most efforts to get him pucks were simple little passes, or results of workmanlike efforts creating turn overs and capitalizing on opportunites. In other words, the kid could bury it on his own.
In the end, the Leafs will have to collectively as units generate the same workmanlike crew to get him pucks, to make up for the loss of Savard.
Savard may just end up missing Kessel just as much this season.
katshockey@mapleleafshotstove.com
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October 10th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
No, never seen him fight before. I’ll make sure to not miss the beginning of the broadcast …unless the leaf game is in OT or something haha
I’m really looking forward to seeing Cerrone walk all over Henderson
October 10th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
My buddy Vito Asattani is fighting tonight in that, its his first ever fight just an undercard!!! Keep an I out for him and cheer him on !! hes a hard leaf fan lol
October 10th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
@ Jordan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sMzV6KkvxA
October 10th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Thats awesome. Those guys did suck though, but if hes training with Greg Jackson he will be a force soon enough and prolly make a run at the belt. I dunno if anyone can beat Mike Brown though
October 10th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
@ IBleaf, i’d take Blacker or Kenny Ryan in our future over a slow underachieving Antropov anyday.
October 10th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
@ Jordan
The only one I agree with is #2… LOL
1) How do you know how good Kadri will be? Nobody (short of God) does.
And you cannot prove mathematically that it is highly improbable that our 2 firsts will not be as good as Kadri. First, as stated above, we still don’t know how good (or not good) Kadri will be.
Second, did you look into your crystal ball so as to know what # those picks would bë? If they are both in the top 5 I would say the likelihood is much higher than you seem to imagine, but it is all speculation until two or three, or maybe even five years from now. Man, you are stubborn!
3) “Stempniak is ten times the player Steen is”. Good use of hyperbole to make your point, but strongly disagree on the “ten”. Maybe 1.25, at best.
4) Would we have picked Lars Eller? Who knows? But just to let you know, our 1st and 2nd picks of 2007 (we gave up both, plus a 4th in 2009 and took on Bell the sand bag, ie. salary dump) were used to draft Eller, as you pointed out, and another American player, who are rated #3 and #5 on St. Louis’ prospect depth chart. Oh, did I forget to mention that St. Louis is ranked #1 in the entire league regarding prospects.
I too hope Toskala gives us all reason to jump on his bandwagon, and I am not jumping all over the guy because of the soft goals, etc. Honestly, I just don’t believe this guy is, was, or ever will be a bonafide #1. That’s not his fault, he is what he is, a decent backup when he is on his game. Here’s hoping the Monster lives up to his name.
I do appreciate your optimism though… I hope as much as the next Leaf fan that Kessel becomes a bonafide superstar, but let him play a few games first before we raise his number to the rafters.
October 10th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Ya Blacker is the guy we got from the Anrtopov pick. Whata sweet deal that was!
October 10th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
hahah 1.25. Thats funny! Litterally, not being an ass lol
October 10th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
We need a new blog to preview tonights game.
Now I gotta hunt down tonights lineup myself.
October 10th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Yeah, what’s with the extended period of time between blogs sometimes… This team of bloggers sucks… we need to bring up some young prospect bloggers… and bury some of these guys at Hockeybuzz… LOL
Ok, we will wait for a few more blogs before passing judgement, no PE here!
October 10th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
LOL @ Neverlosehope – be nice
October 10th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
@ Andrew
Just a little levity. I wouldn’t trade any of our bloggers for two firsts and a second…
October 10th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
@ Jordan – I would rather have given up 2 1st round picks for Jordan Staal vs Kessel.. though, Leafs seem to have some good potential down the middle (Kadri, Bozak, Grabovski) – so, I am guessing the Leafs were identifying a winger who can snipe as a more desired commodity.. having said this, Jordan Staal is the real deal.. this guy will be this generations Doug Gilmore – buried as a 3rd line center on very deep teams, cup wins, etc.. and then growing into a dominant player when finally given the chance..
October 10th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
The problem with this arguement is the leafs need a player like kessel and a player like Stall. Stall would be great for the power forward were in desperate need of.
October 10th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
I might give 2 1sts for Staal too. It depends. But overall Kessel is better then Staal IMO. Remember too that I was pushing for Burke to get Kessel for 3-4 months now because I watched a lot of Bruins games last year because my girlfriends brother loves Boston. He is wayyyy over looked as one of the top scorers in the league IMO. You notice him every shift he plays and its like he is a thread to score %100 of the time. I look at him as a mirror image of Kovalchuk. I don’t think Jordan Staal is in the same talent level as him. Staal is good on the PK though, but that’s a different aspect of the game then top line talent
October 10th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Let’s all just hope Gonchar gets hurt(sounds bad but meh) and The Pens get desparate. Instead of compairing them, they might be complementing eachother lol. Not likely but I imagine Kaberle+Stajan might get it done? Both Stajan and Kabby started great so there’s hope for a Kadri-Staal-Kessel line
lol
October 10th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
@ IBleaf
Our Christmas wish list is long… Three Jordan Stalls, two Phil Kessels and a Monster in net.
October 10th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Anyone hear Leafs Lunch on Friday? Darren Dreger said that VanRyn looks to be done for the year. They will know for sure this week. His knee is a mess and needs the same surgery that Stevie Y had that ended his career. VanRyn isn’t even with the team…he is home thinking about his future with his family.
I say this as that “solid journalist” Ek is saying that the Leafs are working on a trade with the Sharks. For either VanRyn or White. He is picking names out of a hat again. He is such a dummy.
October 10th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
Opening lineup 2010
Kessel-Kadri-Hagman
Stalberg-Bozak-Hanson
Grabovski-Stajan-Byfuglien
Mitchell-Didomenico-Orr
Rosehill
Kaberle-Schenn
Komisarek-Beauchemin
White-Finger
Gunnarson-Orescovic
Monster
Joey Mac
Stanley Cup Champions 201?
October 10th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
@ caper7
Thanks for the good news, what next?… good I didn’t have him in our Stanley Cup lineup for next year
October 10th, 2009 at 5:34 pm
@Neverlosehope
That does look cool, but If Bozak turns out to be a top 6 center, Grabovski will be traded I think. Those 2 should be fighting for the 3nd line center role if everything works out
October 10th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
The long anticipated Kadri goal:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMYWo8Uqdfg
October 10th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
I agree, Grabovski will be pushed out in a couple years. Kadri and Bozak will definetly be our top 2 Centers moving forward. Grabovski should be converted into a winger… a little less defensive responsibility, and he’s not depended on to pass as much. Then again, he gets disgruntled easily and might not like being the center of attention… (no pun intended) lol
October 10th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
he might dislike not being the center of attention**
October 10th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
Stats are for losers, though I realize it took alot of your time to come up with all those statistics, I am sorry you wasted your time. Phil Kessel is a Maple Leaf, he will play with who ever BB and RW give to him. Yes he is a natural goal scorer, but this is the NHL, you have to have someone to play with to put up big numbers. Even OV would have less points per season if he was not surrounded by very good teammates, and not to mention a Coach that allows him to play 3 1/2 minute shifts, and loves the offensive game, tough winning a cup that way but exciting to watch. So give Kessel some slack until we can surround him with good teammates.
October 10th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Wow, nice goal by Kadri. Not sure if its “goal of the year” though lol
October 10th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
@ Alex:
Wow, I just jizzed in my pants. I am expecting to see lots of that from the Phenaz this year.
October 10th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
No, it won’t be goal of the year. Very nice, but if that’s goal of the year, it will be a very disappointing year. haha
October 10th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
“stats are for losers”
.
possibly idiot comment of the day?
October 10th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
@wag31
9 out of 10 people would disagree that stats are for losers. Therefore theres only a %10 chance of someone agreeing with you……%5 that its a man %5 its a woman….with an average age of 28 years old. So to gather our thoughts, the stats say your wrong lol
October 10th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
@ Jordan
Yeah I believe that the Human Zamboni could/should be traded, but just not sure if anyone would take him at $3mil/year, and seeing as they just signed him to the 3 year extension I imagine they are not anxious to send him packing… but who knows?
That’s why I put him on the wing, IMHO he does not have the puck distribution skills nor vision to be a top 6 centre (of attention… LOL).
@ 2 mins
Definitely Kadri and Bozak are the top two moving forward, beginning next year I hope. I believe that Bozak could turn out to be a better overall player than Kadri and he has heart, all the makings of franchise cornerstone (I believe/hope/pray)!
I imagine that there is a 64.9% probability that wags31 will respond to Jordan’s last salvo, and that there is a 33% (accurate to within 3% five times out of six) chance that Joran will ignore him.
October 10th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Thanks Alex! Nice goal for sure, but it won’t even make his top three for this year!
October 10th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
haha priceless
October 11th, 2009 at 9:59 am
Wow!! Well time will tell, but if you ask me Savard is the real deal. Kessel will score as a Leaf … he’s a player but there in NOBOBY in the Leafs system capabable of putting up Savard time number right now.
TC
http://leafsandstuff.blogspot.com/
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:53 pm
[...] an aside, there was an edition of HockeyCentral on the FAN590 yesterday that referenced research done here on MLHS by our own Gus Katsaros. We were disappointed by the lack of credit given to [...]
November 4th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
As an FYI….Gus will be on Hockeycentral with Maclean between 1 and 2.
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December 5th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
[...] has assisted on 40% of Kessel’s goals. Sure, it’s not as high as the 54% in the overblown Marc Savard myth, but decent nonetheless. Add in new linemate Alexei Ponikarovsky, and 70% of Kessel’s goals [...]
December 27th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
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February 20th, 2010 at 6:13 pm
[...] that more talented playmaker at centre would result in more goals for Phil Kessel. Gus Katsaros already covered that one for us a while ago, and I fully agree with him that the Marc Savard factor had far less an impact on [...]