Unrestricted Free Agency: D-Day or Z-Day?

Ah, July 1st. The day we celebrate our nation’s birth by tracking NHL free agent signings.

The Maple Leafs enter UFA Day with 14 million and change in cap space, but I wouldn’t expect them to spend too much of it today, as all indications remain that Burke will do his heavy lifting via trade.

While Burke has made it clear he won’t be in the mix for the two big fish in Parise and Suter in any meaningful way, one thing that may be on the mandate for Burke today is the addition of size up front (and possibly a right handed defenceman).

This is a somewhat scary proposition. Burke should have fresh memories of the dangers of overpaying a lower roster player if you don’t get it right, given he bought out Colby Armstrong yesterday. (FTR, the 50 games of the 2010-11 Armstrong showed us what Burke thought he was getting for 3 years… unfortunately, Armstrong’s injury proneness prevented any chance of that happening). The reality of July 1st is that GMs knowingly accept overpayment to varying degrees, and overpayment on a role player is the type of high risk-low reward situation Burke needs to steer clear of.

Burke will hopefully steer clear of adding size just for the sake of it, and by that I mean a replaceable energy player at an inflated price. Almost always in the mania of July 1, silly justifications are made for giving good money to a player that simply doesn’t deserve the coin and could probably be replaced adequately from within.

When Burke does add more size up front, it will likely be in the form of a player who can play respectable minutes and offer something in terms of secondary scoring. A name like Dustin Penner, with whom he and Carlyle have a history after sharing a Cup with him in Anaheim, immediately pops to mind. Burke must be careful here, too; it’s tough to put a number on a guy who made some key contributions in his second Cup win of his career, but put up only 17 points in 65 games during the regular season. Penner’s been chronically inconsistent over 82 game schedules, and this has to be particularly concerning for the Leafs as we are not thinking beyond merely making the playoffs in the first place.

This is still a once 30+ goal scorer who is a big man to boot. Where the approrpiate price point is with Penner is the tough part to decipher. Penner has the added bonus of being 29 and still having ample experience to drawn on, and of course he put up 29 goals in his first full season in the NHL under Carlyle.

Shane Doan will be testing unrestricted free agency, although his preference is to remain with the Coyotes if possible. For a team lacking a leader at the forward position, Doan is a 35-year-old veteran with 50-60 pt ability and is a warrior on the boards with his solid 6’1″, 230 pound frame.

With the Leafs missing out on Schultz and moving Schenn, they could also be looking for a righthanded defenceman today (Phaneuf, Liles, Gunnarsson and Gardiner are all lefties). I imagine it falls lower on the todem pole of needs, and it may be a need they chose to fill internally with a number of depth options including Korbinian Holzer (if he is signed). With Schenn gone and all of Gunnarsson, Liles, Gardiner and Franson still in the picture, the Leafs could use some added snarl back there as well.

Here are lists of the available UFAs courtesy of The Globe and Mail:

FORWARDS:

DEFENCEMEN:

GOALTENDERS: