In our final breakdown ahead of the Leafs-Panthers series opener, we turn to the special teams. 

In the first round, you couldn’t ask for much more from the Leafs’ special team units. The power play clicked at 35.3 percent (third-highest rate in the first round), and their penalty kill finished at 80 percent (tied for fourth). 

It was no coincidence that Toronto won the series with those numbers. The Leafs have been an effective five-on-five team all year; if their special teams are solid, they give themselves a really good chance to win. If the special teams are genuinely good – as they were in round one – they give themselves a great chance to win.

Now, a stiffer test awaits. 

The Leafs’ Power Play vs. the Panthers’ Penalty Kill

In the first round, the Florida Panthers clashed with a Tampa Bay team that boasted the fifth-ranked power play in the league this past regular season. Florida held them to two goals on 18 attempts. 

In the build-up to the series against the Leafs, Paul Maurice was asked about the Panthers’ strong penalty kill:

“If your penalty kill is not very good, you don’t have to live with it very long because you’ll be out of the playoffs. You have to have a solid penalty kill to get to the next round. I think it is more important than your power play.”

Rather quietly – although not to Maurice, who has noted it multiple times – the Panthers’ penalty kill is one of the biggest reasons they won the Cup last year. They killed off a monster 88 percent of their penalties, which was particularly important when they faced an elite Oilers power play in the final. 

This has been one of their biggest strengths, and when we talk about their physicality and crossing the line, it is one of the main reasons they can take those liberties. They simply kill off the penalties, and the opposing team is left with a wounded player. 

In Game 4 against Tampa, Florida found themselves down 2-1 in the game and up 2-1 in the series. Niko Mikkola was ejected from the game for a dirty hit, handing Tampa Bay a golden opportunity to extend their lead and potentially tie the series. The Lightning got all of one shot on net on the five-minute major, didn’t score, and Florida ended up winning the game. This sequence of events went a long way in deciding the series. 

While the Panthers love their Aleksander Barkov-Sam Reinhart duo, Maurice admitted he is trying not to gas them:

“I am not running Barkov-Reinhart in big minutes. It has allowed us to spread that out over some good players and have a fairly high quality of PKers going out while not burning people out to do it.”

The forward minutes reflect this approach (PK TOI/game):

  • Loustarinen: 3:02
  • Sturm: 2:47
  • Reinhart: 2:20
  • Lundell: 2:15
  • Barkov: 2:13
  • Marchand: 1:37

Similar to the Leafs, the Panthers regularly run six penalty-killing forwards. They need so many players constantly churning in and out because of the aggression they play with.

Look at how Nikita Kucherov is chased around while on the power play, eventually leading to a turnover and a goal against:

It was the same story for the vast majority of the series. 

In the regular-season series, the Panthers did this to the Leafs, too. Toronto went 1/6 against the Panthers this season on the power play, and the one goal came off a faceoff. Florida rarely, if ever, allows the opposing power play to set up, and their big defensemen down low all possess the long reach to block down low plays.

The Panthers were also third in the league in shorthanded goals this season (10), and they are happy to counterattack if their pressure can lead to a turnover. A Leafs team that just conceded two shorthanded goals to Ottawa must be highly mindful of the shorthanded threat.

More than that, though, the Leafs will need to outwork the Panthers’ penalty kill. Ahead of the series against Ottawa, we flagged the Senators’ diamond penalty kill and the need for the Leafs to work the puck down low. They did just that for multiple power-play goals, and the Senators eventually retreated and packed the house. The Leafs then needed to start playing more direct and to the net, and when Matthews scored a power-play goal in the first period of Game 6, that’s what they did; three Leafs were at the net-front area on Matthews’ goal.

In my view, this is less about Xs and Os and more about urgency and a refusal to be outworked. Every single team in the league would love to sit back and snap pucks around on the power play, including Tampa Bay in the first round. The Panthers are in the power play’s face and rarely allow it, so the PP has to be ready to match their aggression.

In the regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning produced 105.53 shot attempts per 60 minutes on the power play (the Leafs were next best at 105.81). In the playoffs, it dropped to 66.19 – an embarrassing number, if we’re honest. The Hurricanes’ PK led the league this season at 83.99 allowed. Tampa didn’t set up well, and when they did possess the puck, they didn’t move it fast enough or make the right decisions. 

For the record, the Leafs were third among playoff teams in attempts per 60 in the first round.

The players at the top of the Leafs’ power play will be absolutely critical to its success in this series. Marner, Nylander, and Matthews must move the puck quickly before the Panthers close their space. When Florida has a player pressuring, they usually have their other three retreat. There is already a man open by virtue of the man advantage. There must be urgency to find the next pass, and if Florida pressures heavily, someone will be wide open with a shot opportunity while Matthew Knies is right above the crease and John Tavares is in the high slot.

If the Leafs’ three players up top beat the Panthers’ press, they will create some really good looks. If they are casual with the puck, it will be highly frustrating to watch. They must be direct, ready to work on the power play, and bring some urgency to the ice. If shots are there, take them. Sergei Bobrovsky can get into shooters’ heads, and the Leafs aren’t going to beat him by looking for the perfect shot. It will require traffic and volume. 

Matthews led the Leafs with nine power-play shots on net on 14 attempts in the first round. His volume will be there. Nylander recorded five shots on six attempts. The player to watch will be Marner, who fired two shots on two attempts. It made sense for Marner in the series – the Senators played a diamond, and Marner recorded five power-play assists – so I am certainly not complaining. This is a different opponent, though, and it will likely require more shooting from the point. While Marner can’t blast the puck like an Evan Bouchard up top, he is really effective at getting pucks through. If he can do it with Knies in front, the Leafs have a chance – maybe even a very good chance. 

In the clip below from the Tampa vs. Florida series, Darren Raddysh has the time and space to shoot it. He elects not to, and when the puck goes to the half-wall, Nikita Kucherov is pressured into a bad decision, and the Panthers jump the pass. The Leafs need to take this shot when it’s given.

The other area to monitor is the entries. The Panthers will stack three across the blue line as most teams do, but most teams don’t have Florida’s length. Their first penalty killer will pressure up the ice, and they gap up well on defense, playing right at the blue line and disrupting entries with their reach. The Leafs struggle in this area at times and will need to have a solid plan in place.

The Leafs may be skilled enough to slice right through it. Nylander is really effective at this, and when Marner has the puck, he picks out the right pass more often than not. They will also need to consider some far-side rims on the entry. The Panthers will attack the half-wall right away when the puck enters the zone. The far side half-wall will be open if the Leafs rim it behind the net.

The Leafs’ early goals against the Senators came off faceoff wins, but Matthews’ G6 goal was off a Matthews-Nylander entry where they sliced through relatively cleanly. 

The Panthers will make clears with their pressure – it’s unavoidable – but the Leafs must turn those around and re-enter the zone cleanly when this happens. 

From there, streamlined shooting, quick puck movement, and traffic in front are requirements. Frankly, the Leafs’ top players are so talented that they should be able to pick apart the pressure. It is easier said than done, but this matchup is massive because the five-on-five game will be extremely tight. No team has been able to expose the Panthers’ penalty kill over the past few years, but the Leafs will need to reverse the trend.

The Leafs’ Penalty Kill vs. the Panthers’ Power Play

The Panthers’ power play went 4/16 against the Lightning (25 percent) after finishing 13th at 23.5 percent during the regular season. This is a good power play that will improve as time goes on, considering they were missing Tkachuk and Ekblad for a quarter of the season. 

This season, Florida was in the top five in attempts per 60 on the power play, expected goals per 60, and high-danger chances per 60. The reason is fairly simple: They launch a lot of volume to the net and win a lot of battles in front for rebounds. Bennett and Tkachuk, who spend a lot of time around the net, were second and third on the Panthers in power-play shots on net this season.

By comparison, three of the Leafs’ top four power-play shooters all play up top (Matthews, Nylander, and Marner). 

The mainstays on the Panthers’ power play are Barkov, Reinhart, and Tkachuk. There is some uncertainty beyond those three. Seth Jones has often quarterbacked the power play since he arrived in Florida, but Aaron Ekblad has effectively filled the role before. Ekblad’s multiple suspensions make for some uncertainty here.

By ice time, Mackie Samoskevich rounds out the top unit – they like him on the man advantage when he’s in the lineup – but at the time of writing, he’s slated for a healthy scratch in Game 1. That means Carter Verhaeghe or perhaps Sam Bennett will fill out the unit. 

Like most power plays, it’s generally a 1-3-1 look from Florida, but they shift to an overload quite well as they constantly desire numbers in front of the net.

The Panthers’ power play isn’t shy about simply generating traffic and shooting pucks. Goals like this come to mind:

It’s extremely simple, but from the Leafs’ standpoint, they do a few things well to defend these types of sequences. Their forwards are effective at getting into shooting lanes, and their defense is effective at clearing the net.

This battle will swing on whether the Leafs can clear out their net front or if Florida can set up shop. A sequence like the one below is way too easy for the Panthers. 

The Leafs’ PK was seamed, the forward was beaten by the shot, and nobody cleared Lundell from screening the goalie. 

Whether it’s a shot or moving it low, the Panthers are all about those bodies in front. In another example from the regular season, they create a down-low 2v1 for a tap-in:

In the same game, Bennett scored another wide-open goal in front.

Three goals, and nobody tied the man up in front. 

It’s all about the home plate area for the Panthers. They run a defenseman on the point, and they didn’t have a single defenseman score a power-play goal all regular season (Nate Schmidt scored their first in the playoffs, as shown above). 

A player to watch is Sam Reinhart, who led Florida in power-play goals this season. He operates out of the bumper spot, and Tkachuk is effective at finding him on one-touch or seam plays from the goal line to the slot. They funnel a lot of pucks through Reinhart, who is also excellent at tipping the puck in the bumper position.

It’s a solid, experienced power play capable of beating the PK in a few different ways. The Leafs’ big defenders will have their work cut out for them, and mitigating a really good bumper threat in Reinhart is difficult (just as it is for the opposition with Tavares). It all comes down to spacing and using their reach to cut off easy passing lanes. 

From the Leafs’ side, we know the PK forward pairs will be Matthews-Marner, Laughton-Lorentz, and Jarnkrok-Knies. On defense, it will be McCabe-Tanev followed by Benoit-Carlo. 

The Leafs effectively block shooting lanes and showed signs of pressing better in their series win against the Senators. Can they keep up the aggression against a better team with slimmer margins? Can their defense clear the net well? Last but certainly not least, can Anthony Stolarz make some big saves (for example, he let in a weak one-timer against Stutzle on the penalty kill)? 

Final Notes

–  With the Leafs not playing a Saturday game this series, I was curious what their record by day of the week would look like, knowing they play almost every Saturday in the regular season. Saturday was their only day of the week under .500. Their best day? Sunday, with a sparkling 7-0-1 record. Ultimately, I don’t think it means much of anything, but players are creatures of habit, so it was nice to see that playing on odd days didn’t faze them one bit.

–  Matthew Knies played a good series against the Senators with some big-time goals, but I think he has a whole other level of physicality to get to. I can’t think of any notable licks he got on Senator players in the series, which is far different than last spring against the Bruins. Knies was credited with 12 hits in the series — two fewer than each of his linemates. It’s not a criticism – they got through the series without burning through a ton of energy – but it needs to ramp up against Florida.

– The Panthers’ defense is far bigger and stronger than Ottawa’s, and it will be a war of attrition against them the longer this series goes. The Leafs need to get on them on the forecheck and inflict some wear-and-tear damage. Gustav Forsling, in particular, is a defenseman the Leafs need to get to.

–  The Panthers were 28th in all situations shooting percentage this season. They have talent and can produce – this is not to suggest they’re easy to defend – but this is a team you definitely want to put behind the eight ball and force to play offense. They win games by grinding opponents down and winning battles in front. They are elite defensively with an elite goalie. It’s not a high-flying group by any means.

–  I don’t write a ton about goaltending because it’s such a unique position and I’m unqualified to write about it. But we all know that Sergei Bobrovsky is a problem. He looked absolutely dialed in against Tampa Bay, and the Leafs will need to find their way through by making his life a lot more difficult. The Lightning scored 11 goals against him in five games. When Bob helped eliminate the Leafs in 2023, Toronto scored just 10 goals in five games (two in each game). There are so many storylines to focus on, but at the end of the day, the Leafs need enough goals to win, which is what it comes down to every year in the playoffs with this team.

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In case you missed Part 1 and Part 2 of our Leafs vs. Panthers series coverage:

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