For the first time this year, the Leafs were clearly the superior team in Tuesday’s game against Colorado.
They dominated the ES chances, especially in an effective third period, when they chased down an Avalanche lead and threatened to win in regulation before Kessel settled the game with a piece of overtime magic. There’s a lot of positives to take from this game.
Edit: Since this is my first post here at MLHS, I should add a little background. I’m tracking scoring chances using the relatively common ‘home plate’ approach, as described at In Lou We Trust, among other places. Scoring chance data is fun to track, but comes with some caveats. First, for the most part, over the long term, it converges with a team’s Corsi. Last year, the two measures ended up about a percentage point apart, with the Leafs getting ~44% of ES chances. In addition, scoring chances are obviously smaller sample size, so we need to be careful about making substantial conclusions using them. A couple of bad shifts can impact player’s stats for a game much more than is the case with a stat like Corsi. As well, information like competition and zone starts aren’t directly factored in, so players utilized defensively will rank more poorly than their play deserves; that’s fine, as long as we keep it in mind. I also like to take a look at some of the other comparisons you can draw from this data, like which players are on for the fewest chances per ice time, or which lines have been best at generating chances together. That stuff is even more prone to small sample size effect, and I’d treat that more for fun and to provoke further study than as any kind of firm conclusion. You can follow me at @BAWdisease on twitter.
| Status | Overall | ES | ESCL | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | TOR | COL | % | TOR | COL | % | TOR | COL | % |
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 50.00 | 3 | 4 | 42.86 | 3 | 4 | 42.86 |
| 2 | 8 | 4 | 66.67 | 5 | 4 | 55.56 | 5 | 4 | 55.56 |
| 3 | 10 | 4 | 71.42 | 9 | 4 | 69.23 | 4 | 0 | 100 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 50.00 | 1 | 1 | 50.00 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Total | 23 | 13 | 63.89 | 18 | 13 | 58.06 | 12 | 8 | 60 |
The Leafs dominated the final period in particular, and while some of that is score effects, they actually had a much better margin after the game was tied, not allowing the Avalanche a regulation chance.
Details are below.
| Club | St | P | Time | TSc | Osc | Note | Toronto | Colorado | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | EN | 1 | 19:48 | 0 | 0 | Duchene from McGinn | 42 | 81 | 21 | 12 | 44 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 1 | 13:54 | 0 | 0 | Santorelli wraparound | 25 | 47 | 71 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 29 | 48 | 40 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| COL | EN | 1 | 13:32 | 0 | 0 | Tanguay from Berry | 25 | 47 | 71 | 3 | 50 | 34 | 29 | 48 | 40 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 1 | 13:02 | 0 | 0 | Winnik deflects Percy shot wide | 26 | 42 | 43 | 19 | 46 | 50 | 90 | 45 | 92 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 1 | 10:06 | 0 | 0 | GOAL! Van Riemsdyk from Kessel | 42 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| COL | EN | 1 | 06:46 | 0 | 1 | GOAL! O'Rielly from loose puck | 42 | 81 | 21 | 46 | 50 | 34 | 90 | 12 | 92 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 1 | 05:34 | 1 | 1 | Kadri drives | 26 | 43 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 40 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| COL | EN | 1 | 00:03 | 1 | 1 | Everberg drives | 42 | 81 | 21 | 46 | 50 | 34 | 9 | 45 | 92 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| COL | EN | 2 | 18:43 | 1 | 1 | O'Rielly from Landeskog | 26 | 43 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 90 | 45 | 92 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 2 | 16:36 | 1 | 1 | Bozak wide from Kessel | 42 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| COL | EN | 2 | 15:52 | 1 | 1 | Landeskog wraparound | 42 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 90 | 45 | 92 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| COL | EN | 2 | 15:39 | 1 | 1 | O'Rielly drives | 42 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 90 | 45 | 92 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 2 | 13:46 | 1 | 1 | Winnik from loose puck | 26 | 43 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| TOR | PP | 2 | 11:57 | 1 | 1 | Bozak from rebound of Kessel shot | 42 | 81 | 21 | 4 | 50 | 34 | 90 | 55 | 6 | 8 | 1 | - |
| TOR | EN | 2 | 11:34 | 1 | 1 | Van Riemsdyk from Kessel | 42 | 81 | 21 | 4 | 44 | 34 | 25 | 90 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 2 | 09:48 | 1 | 1 | Kadri wraparound | 26 | 43 | 19 | 3 | 46 | 34 | 90 | 45 | 92 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| TOR | PP | 2 | 05:36 | 1 | 1 | Bozak deflects Percy shot | 42 | 81 | 21 | 4 | 50 | 34 | 90 | 55 | 5 | 17 | 1 | - |
| COL | EN | 2 | 02:20 | 1 | 1 | GOAL! Duchene from Iginla | 43 | 81 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 2 | 01:32 | 1 | 2 | Clarkson from Bozak | 42 | 71 | 21 | 12 | 44 | 34 | 9 | 48 | 40 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| TOR | PP | 2 | 00:07 | 1 | 2 | Phaneuf from Kessel | 42 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 40 | 55 | 6 | 8 | 1 | - |
| TOR | EN | 3 | 19:16 | 1 | 2 | Van Riemsdyk deflects Kessel shot | 42 | 81 | 21 | 4 | 50 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| COL | EN | 3 | 18:17 | 1 | 2 | Everberg drives wide | 25 | 47 | 71 | 46 | 50 | 34 | 90 | 45 | 92 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 3 | 17:44 | 1 | 2 | Kadri drives | 26 | 43 | 19 | 12 | 44 | 34 | 9 | 45 | 92 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| COL | EN | 3 | 17:18 | 1 | 2 | Duchene wide from giveaway | 26 | 43 | 19 | 12 | 44 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 3 | 16:32 | 1 | 2 | Franson from Kessel | 42 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 29 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 3 | 13:25 | 1 | 2 | Santorelli from rebound of Clarkson shot | 25 | 47 | 71 | 46 | 50 | 34 | 29 | 48 | 40 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| COL | EN | 3 | 12:48 | 1 | 2 | Everberg wide from Landeskog | 26 | 43 | 19 | 12 | 44 | 34 | 90 | 45 | 92 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| COL | EN | 3 | 11:19 | 1 | 2 | Duchene wraparound | 42 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 50 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 3 | 09:24 | 1 | 2 | GOAL! Lupul from loose puck | 26 | 43 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 90 | 45 | 92 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 3 | 08:52 | 2 | 2 | Lupul wide from Winnik | 26 | 43 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 90 | 45 | 92 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 3 | 08:05 | 2 | 2 | Kessel drives | 42 | 81 | 21 | 46 | 50 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| TOR | EN | 3 | 08:01 | 2 | 2 | Kessel from rebound | 42 | 81 | 21 | 46 | 50 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| TOR | PP | 3 | 03:25 | 2 | 2 | Lupul from loose puck | 43 | 81 | 19 | 44 | 50 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 1 | - |
| TOR | EN | 3 | 01:46 | 2 | 2 | Bozak wraparound | 42 | 81 | 21 | 46 | 50 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| COL | EN | 4 | 04:45 | 2 | 2 | McKinnon wide from Duchene | 42 | 81 | 3 | 4 | 34 | - | 9 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| TOR | EN | 4 | 04:26 | 2 | 2 | GOAL! Kessel drives | 42 | 81 | 3 | 4 | 34 | - | 9 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
The player-by-player data:
| Player | F | A | D | TOI | ESF | ESA | ESD | ESTOI | ESCLF | ESCLA | ESCLD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phaneuf | 11 | 7 | 4 | 24:18 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 16:26 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Franson | 14 | 5 | 9 | 21:23 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 15:30 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Robidas | 2 | 3 | -1 | 13:28 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 12:52 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Panik | 0 | 0 | 0 | 04:44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 04:44 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lupul | 8 | 4 | 4 | 19:21 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16:08 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Van Riemsdyk | 12 | 6 | 6 | 19:30 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13:07 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Holland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 04:31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 04:31 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Santorelli | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11:37 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11:37 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Winnik | 7 | 3 | 4 | 18:23 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 14:22 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Bozak | 14 | 7 | 7 | 19:43 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13:46 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Kadri | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20:15 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16:30 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Rielly | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18:10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15:07 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Polak | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:21 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16:02 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Komarov | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14:32 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11:19 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Percy | 9 | 5 | 4 | 23:34 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 16:53 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Kozun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 05:50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 04:18 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clarkson | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15:51 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:34 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Kessel | 13 | 8 | 5 | 21:01 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 14:52 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Reimer | 22 | 13 | 9 | 60:34 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 46:06 | 12 | 8 | 4 |
In a major contrast to the previous games, there’s a lot of positive things going on for the Leafs on the night, led by the second line, which has been consistently strong. Daniel Winnik had a great night, setting up the chance on the equalizer with a good forecheck, and Lupul had some good chances as well. The top line had a typical night, generating a lot of chances, but also being very vulnerable defensively. If the Leafs can consistently get strong nights from the second line, they could be successful this season.
On defence, Franson had a strong game, and Phaneuf was good as well; even Polak managed to get onto the positive side of the ledger. Percyhad some great plays, but also some errors, as expected from a young defenceman, ending up even.
Cumulative numbers this season:
| Overall | Pos | # | ESF | ESA | ESD | ES% | AvESTOI | ESClF | ESClA | ESClD | ESCL% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franson | D | 2 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 50.00% | 13:48 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 53.30% |
| Lupul | F | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 47.20% | 14:51 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 52.90% |
| Kadri | F | 4 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 44.40% | 14:47 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 50.00% |
| Winnik | F | 4 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 52.20% | 13:06 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 50.00% |
| Clarkson | F | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 56.70% | 11:48 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 46.70% |
| Reimer | G | 2 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 46.80% | 43:03 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 44.10% |
| Rielly | D | 4 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 43.20% | 14:55 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 43.80% |
| Phaneuf | D | 4 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 47.20% | 16:59 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 40.70% |
| Percy | D | 4 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 43.20% | 16:27 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 38.90% |
| Komarov | F | 4 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 54.20% | 11:36 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 38.50% |
| Van Riemsdyk | F | 4 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 40.00% | 14:33 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 37.50% |
| Polak | D | 4 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 37.10% | 17:30 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 35.00% |
| Bozak | F | 4 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 44.00% | 14:26 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 34.80% |
| Gardiner | D | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 47.40% | 16:26 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 33.30% |
| Santorelli | F | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 54.50% | 11:39 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 33.30% |
| Kessel | F | 4 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 38.90% | 15:11 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 33.30% |
| Bernier | G | 3 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 39.70% | 35:34 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 32.10% |
| Holland | F | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 25.00% | 7:17 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 28.60% |
| Robidas | D | 4 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 36.60% | 15:55 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 26.30% |
| Kozun | F | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 26.30% | 8:26 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 25.00% |
| Frattin | F | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 25.00% | 9:11 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0.00% |
| Panik | F | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 14.30% | 6:09 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0.00% |
Winnik has done well on that second line, which along with the third line, have been pretty good for Toronto, particularly in the last two games. The top line is still the dilemma; no line can match their pure production, but they give too many opportunities to opponents to be the core of a top contending team. Franson has had a great two game start, and Phaneuf has done alright as well. Robidas had a couple of bad errors in this game, and he and Polak have definitely been the weak links.
| Game | Opp | Overall | ES | ES Cl | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | ChF | ChA | Net | % | ChF | ChA | Net | % | ChF | ChA | Net | % | |
| All | 87 | 87 | 0 | 50.00% | 54 | 71 | -17 | 43.20% | 24 | 38 | -14 | 38.70% | |
| 4 | COL | 22 | 13 | 9 | 62.90% | 18 | 13 | 5 | 58.10% | 12 | 8 | 4 | 60.00% |
| 3 | NYR | 25 | 25 | 0 | 50.00% | 14 | 23 | -9 | 37.80% | 3 | 11 | -8 | 21.40% |
| 2 | PIT | 20 | 26 | -6 | 43.50% | 8 | 16 | -8 | 33.30% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0.00% |
| 1 | MTL | 20 | 23 | -3 | 46.50% | 14 | 19 | -5 | 42.40% | 9 | 18 | -9 | 33.30% |
