Game 80 Scoring Chances: Maple Leafs 3 vs. Senators 2 (SO)

Toronto had a great first period, out-chancing Ottawa and getting an early goal from Joffrey Lupul to take the lead.

After the intermission, the Senators upped their level of play, dominating the period. The chances weren’t that one-sided at even strength, but Ottawa had a lot of power-play time as well, and managed to tie the game with the extra man. Toronto went back ahead late in the period, but another Ottawa power-play, stretching over the intermission break, saw Ottawa get level again. After the teams exchanged chances early in the third, Ottawa had a strong three minute stretch, generating six chances, but failing to beat Jonathan Bernier. After the Leafs couldn’t score on a late power-play the game headed to overtime, and again it was Ottawa who had the better of the chances, but Bernier stood strong. That led to a shoot-out with major playoff implications; it lasted fourteen shooters before Peter Holland scored the winner, giving Toronto a second win over Ottawa in a week.

Status	Overall			Even Strength			ES Close
Team	TOR	OTT	%	TOR	OTT	%	TOR	OTT	%
1	10	6	62.5%	9	6	60.0%	9	6	60.0%
2	3	11	21.4%	3	6	33.3%	3	6	33.3%
3	6	11	35.3%	3	10	23.1%	3	10	23.1%
4	1	4	20.0%	1	4	20.0%	1	4	20.0%
Total	20	32	38.5%	16	26	38.1%	16	26	38.1%

You can see how much Ottawa turned on the attack as they chased the second point in the last two periods. Despite a strong start, the Leafs were heavily out-chanced again, finishing under 40% at ES.

Club	St	P	Time	TSc	Osc	Note	Toronto						Ottawa
TOR	ES	1	19:38	0	0	Komarov from loose puck	24	47	19	44	51	45	27	44	22	3	65	30
OTT	ES	1	18:07	0	0	MacArthur from Stone	15	43	18	44	51	45	7	61	16	3	5	30
TOR	ES	1	16:50	0	0	GOAL! Lupul from Brewer	24	47	19	2	3	45	27	44	22	62	74	30
OTT	ES	1	16:02	1	0	MacArthur from loose puck	42	81	21	44	51	45	7	61	16	5	46	30
OTT	ES	1	15:20	1	0	Legwand drives	15	43	18	33	57	45	17	68	90	3	65	30
OTT	ES	1	14:06	1	0	Condra from rebound of Lazar shot	24	47	19	33	57	45	27	44	22	5	46	30
TOR	ES	1	13:46	1	0	Van Riemsdyk from Gardiner	42	81	21	44	51	45	7	61	16	5	46	30
TOR	ES	1	12:50	1	0	Van Riemsdyk wraparound	42	81	21	2	44	45	7	61	16	5	46	30
TOR	ES	1	12:49	1	0	Van Riemsdyk from rebound	42	81	21	2	44	45	7	61	16	5	46	30
TOR	ES	1	08:36	1	0	Holland from Rielly	24	47	19	44	51	45	7	61	16	5	46	30
OTT	ES	1	08:05	1	0	Condra drives	24	37	20	44	57	45	27	44	22	3	5	30
OTT	ES	1	07:17	1	0	Chiasson from loose puck	42	81	21	33	57	45	44	22	90	3	65	30
TOR	ES	1	06:47	1	0	Booth drives	22	37	20	2	3	45	15	17	90	62	74	30
TOR	ES	1	06:41	1	0	Booth from rebound	22	37	20	2	3	45	15	17	90	62	74	30
TOR	PP	1	03:56	1	0	Kadri from Lindstrom	15	43	19	33	51	45	7	61	3	5	30	-
TOR	ES	1	02:04	1	0	Panik deflects MacWilliam shot wide	24	18	21	2	57	45	6	22	90	46	65	30
OTT	ES	2	18:44	1	0	Lazar from loose puck	42	81	21	33	57	45	27	44	22	62	74	30
OTT	SH	2	17:10	1	0	Turris from Karlsson	24	20	2	3	45	-	7	61	16	46	65	30
OTT	ES	2	13:05	1	0	Zibanejad wide from Ryan	24	47	19	33	57	45	68	93	6	5	46	30
OTT	SH	2	12:46	1	0	Stone from Wiercoch	22	20	2	3	45	-	7	61	16	46	65	30
OTT	SH	2	12:45	1	0	GOAL! Karlsson from Turris	22	20	2	3	45	-	7	61	16	46	65	30
OTT	ES	2	12:07	1	1	Hoffmann deflects Karlsson shot post	42	81	21	2	3	45	68	93	6	3	65	30
OTT	SH	2	11:15	1	1	MacArthur wide from Stone	24	47	33	57	45	-	7	61	16	46	65	30
OTT	ES	2	09:07	1	1	Condra from loose puck	43	81	19	44	51	45	27	44	22	3	5	30
TOR	ES	2	07:18	1	1	GOAL! Van Riemsdyk from Holland	24	21	2	3	45	-	68	16	5	46	30	-
OTT	ES	2	04:51	2	1	Legwand from Hoffman	22	47	20	44	51	45	17	68	6	3	65	30
OTT	ES	2	02:34	2	1	MacArthur drives	24	47	19	44	51	45	7	61	16	3	65	30
TOR	ES	2	01:33	2	1	Lindstrom from Kadri	15	43	18	2	3	45	68	93	6	5	46	30
TOR	ES	2	01:13	2	1	Kadri deflects Brewer shot wide	15	43	18	2	3	45	68	93	6	5	46	30
OTT	EN	2	00:06	2	1	MacArthur wide from Karlsson	42	47	2	3	45	-	7	61	16	46	65	-
OTT	SH	3	18:51	2	1	GOAL! Stone from Turris	22	42	33	57	45	-	7	61	16	46	65	30
OTT	ES	3	17:47	2	2	Zibanejad drives	42	81	21	2	3	45	68	93	6	62	74	30
OTT	ES	3	0.723611111	2	2	Ryan from loose puck	42	81	21	2	3	45	93	6	90	62	74	30
OTT	ES	3	0.619444444	2	2	Methot from Legwand	24	43	18	2	51	45	17	93	6	3	5	30
TOR	ES	3	0.504861111	2	2	Bozak wide from Kessel	42	81	21	2	3	45	93	6	90	62	74	30
TOR	ES	3	0.329166667	2	2	Kessel from Van Riemsdyk	42	81	21	2	3	45	7	61	16	3	65	30
TOR	ES	3	0.295138889	2	2	Sill deflects Erixon shot	22	37	20	33	57	45	27	44	22	46	65	30
OTT	ES	3	0.275	2	2	Ceci wraparound	22	37	20	33	57	45	27	44	22	5	46	30
OTT	ES	3	0.274305556	2	2	Ceci from rebound	22	37	20	33	57	45	27	44	22	5	46	30
OTT	ES	3	0.253472222	2	2	Ryan wraparound	24	47	19	44	51	45	93	6	90	5	46	30
OTT	ES	3	0.249305556	2	2	Zibanejad from rebound of Ryan shot	24	47	19	44	51	45	93	6	90	5	46	30
OTT	ES	3	0.175	2	2	Pageau from Condra	42	81	21	33	57	45	27	44	22	3	65	30
OTT	ES	3	0.142361111	2	2	Zibanejad wide from loose puck	24	47	19	44	51	45	93	6	90	5	46	30
TOR	PP	3	0.111805556	2	2	Van Riemsdyk drives wide	42	81	21	3	44	45	44	22	62	74	30	-
TOR	PP	3	0.106944444	2	2	Bozak drives wide	42	81	21	3	44	45	44	22	62	74	30	-
TOR	PP	3	0.040972222	2	2	Kadri from loose puck	15	43	19	3	51	45	44	22	5	74	30	-
OTT	ES	3	0.022222222	2	2	Karlsson from Turris	15	43	19	33	51	45	7	6	61	46	65	30
TOR	ES	4	0.15	2	2	Holland from Brewer	24	21	2	3	45	-	93	16	5	46	30	-
OTT	ES	4	0.075694444	2	2	Stone from Turris	42	81	44	51	45	-	7	61	5	46	30	-
OTT	ES	4	0.036805556	2	2	Methot wide from Karlsson	24	21	2	51	45	-	7	61	3	65	30	-
OTT	ES	4	0.011805556	2	2	Ceci from Pageau	43	19	3	44	45	-	44	68	5	46	30	-
OTT	ES	4	0.003472222	2	2	Stone deflects Karlsson shot wide	24	42	2	3	45	-	7	61	46	65	30	-

Player-by-Player data:

Player	Overall				Even Strength				ES Close
	For	Against	Diff	TOI	For	Against	Diff	TOI	For	Against	Diff
Brewer	12	10	2	24:30	12	6	6	20:38	12	6	6
Phaneuf	12	9	3	27:06	9	5	4	19:58	9	5	4
Lindstrom	4	3	1	13:43	2	3	-1	12:17	2	3	-1
Panik	3	3	0	14:26	3	3	0	12:30	3	3	0
Lupul	5	9	-4	15:44	3	9	-6	14:12	3	9	-6
Booth	3	7	-4	10:02	3	4	-1	07:39	3	4	-1
Van Riemsdyk	10	8	2	19:36	8	8	0	16:46	8	8	0
Sill	3	6	-3	09:47	3	3	0	07:12	3	3	0
Holland	6	12	-6	16:50	6	10	-4	14:56	6	10	-4
Erixon	2	11	-9	14:01	1	9	-8	09:49	1	9	-8
Bailey	3	3	0	06:25	3	3	0	06:25	3	3	0
Bozak	7	11	-4	19:47	5	9	-4	16:12	5	9	-4
Kadri	4	6	-2	17:04	2	6	-4	15:00	2	6	-4
Rielly	7	11	-4	25:42	5	11	-6	22:36	5	11	-6
Komarov	3	9	-6	17:31	3	7	-4	12:58	3	7	-4
Gardiner	5	12	-7	24:42	3	12	-9	22:53	3	12	-9
MacWilliam	2	11	-9	13:59	2	9	-7	10:50	2	9	-7
Kessel	7	9	-2	19:27	5	9	-4	16:59	5	9	-4
Bernier	20	32	-12	65:00	16	26	-10	53:22	16	26	-10

Peter Holland returned to the lineup after missing several games, and while he managed to produce offensively, leading the forwards in ES chances, his defensive numbers were terrible, the worst of any forward. He did have one of the toughest zone start ratios, but being on for 10 Sens chances is a poor showing. His differential wasn’t the worst of the forwards, as Joffrey Lupul, who got that opening goal, had almost as bad a night in terms of chances against, but was on for only three Leaf ES chances, finishing a -6. The top line also had some defensive troubles, as despite being the only forwards to get more offensive zone starts than defensive ones, Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak were both -4. James Van Riemsdyk had better numbers, partly due to some good showings 4-on-4 with Holland. The fourth line also had a decent night, as Casey Bailey and Zach Sill were on for a few chances and still finished even, as did Richard Panik, who was a positive Corsi player as well, despite having 17% OZone starts.

Eric Brewer and Dion Phaneuf put up great numbers, despite being the two defenceman who got the toughest minutes. Phaneuf was a +4 at ES, while Brewer topped the team, on for 12 Leaf ES chances and a +6. Obviously, given that the Leafs were in the negative for the night, that means the other pairings had some really ugly numbers. That list is headed by Jake Gardiner, who was the worst defensive player in chances, on for twelve for the Sens, and a team low -9. Morgan Rielly was only marginally better, but the bigger problem was the bottom pair. Despite getting the softest zone starts, 75% in the Sens zone, Andrew MacWilliam and Tim Erixon put up horrible numbers. Erixon was on for nine Sens chances and just one Leafs chance in under ten ES minutes. MacWilliam’s numbers were a little better, but his -7 was still one of the team’s worst. Frankly, it’s no surprise the Leafs have struggled at the close of the season, as the bottom pairing defenceman just haven’t cut it at this level.

Cumulative numbers this season:

Overall	Pos	#	Even Strength				ES Close
			For	Against	%	TOI	For	Against	%
Lindstrom	F	17	39	43	47.6%	09:17	27	26	50.9%
Kadri	F	71	345	367	48.5%	14:59	205	209	49.5%
Polak	D	56	286	346	45.3%	17:54	174	188	48.1%
Rielly	D	79	432	477	47.5%	17:05	236	265	47.1%
Gardiner	D	77	398	435	47.8%	18:12	215	253	45.9%
Panik	F	74	201	222	47.5%	10:20	112	132	45.9%
Komarov	F	61	195	199	49.5%	12:05	102	121	45.7%
Bernier	G	56	739	878	45.7%	44:23	458	545	45.7%
Sill	F	19	27	31	46.6%	07:12	14	17	45.2%
Phaneuf	D	68	374	459	44.9%	17:20	220	272	44.7%
Smith	F	54	129	153	45.7%	09:18	76	98	43.7%
Kessel	F	80	411	492	45.5%	15:04	232	302	43.4%
Lupul	F	53	210	284	42.5%	13:19	117	154	43.2%
Bozak	F	80	391	473	45.3%	14:53	210	282	42.7%
Holland	F	60	171	244	41.2%	11:40	93	130	41.7%
Reimer	G	34	413	512	44.6%	42:11	192	271	41.5%
Van Riemsdyk	F	80	372	500	42.7%	14:53	215	305	41.3%
Brewer	D	16	83	110	43.0%	17:56	47	68	40.9%
Carrick	F	16	23	32	41.8%	07:07	15	24	38.5%
Booth	F	57	141	200	41.3%	10:29	81	134	37.7%
Kozun	F	20	28	46	37.8%	07:26	13	22	37.1%
Robidas	D	52	192	267	41.8%	14:44	93	163	36.3%
Erixon	D	13	28	62	31.1%	12:35	21	42	33.3%

Andrew MacWilliam will qualify for this table after his next game, and it won’t be pretty. Right now, he would be the lowest placed player at ES Close, barely over 30%, and slightly behind Erixon at ES Overall. Now, he has gotten tougher zone starts than Erixon, but his quality of competition levels, according to war-on-ice, have been far lower than the top four defencemen. It has not been a strong start to his NHL career for the North Dakota product, and with younger players like Stuart Percy, Petter Granberg and Viktor Loov in the system, I’m not sure there will be a place for him in future seasons.