Game 81 Scoring Chances: Blue Jackets 5 vs. Maple Leafs 0

The Leafs’ final road game of the season was a fitting summary of their 2015 play.

They were heavily out-chanced in the first period, with Columbus having several great shifts where they generated multiple chances, scoring three goals in the frame. The Leafs were better in terms of chances after that opening period, but they couldn’t get a goal and fell further behind as Columbus scored two more in the second. The Leafs couldn’t bust the shutout in the third, either, and went down to a 5-0 defeat.

Status	Overall			Even Strength			ES Close
Team	TOR	CBJ	%	TOR	CBJ	%	TOR	CBJ	%
1	5	11	31.3%	3	11	21.4%	3	10	23.1%
2	9	8	52.9%	6	5	54.5%	0	0	-
3	7	5	58.3%	5	4	55.6%	0	0	-
Total	21	24	46.7%	14	20	41.2%	3	10	23.1%

The Leafs‘ numbers in the last two periods were much improved, as Columbus no longer needed to worry about scoring goals, but the ES Close numbers show how badly the Leafs started.

Club	St	P	Time	TSc	Osc	Note	Toronto						Columbus
TOR	ES	1	17:27	0	0	Kessel from Van Riemsdyk	42	81	21	2	3	34	17	11	71	7	58	72
CBJ	ES	1	14:57	0	0	Foligno from Johnson	42	81	21	2	3	34	19	38	71	7	29	72
CBJ	ES	1	14:49	0	0	Jenner from rebound of Foligno shot	42	81	21	2	3	34	19	38	71	7	29	72
CBJ	ES	1	14:48	0	0	Jenner from rebound of Foligno shot	42	81	21	2	3	34	19	38	71	7	29	72
CBJ	ES	1	14:43	0	0	Foligno wraparound	42	81	21	2	3	34	19	38	71	27	29	72
CBJ	ES	1	14:42	0	0	Foligno from rebound	42	81	21	2	3	34	19	38	71	27	29	72
CBJ	ES	1	10:22	0	0	Anisimov drives wide	42	81	21	33	57	34	17	42	71	44	47	72
TOR	ES	1	08:06	0	0	Booth drives	22	37	20	2	3	34	55	9	11	44	47	72
CBJ	ES	1	06:15	0	0	Anisimov drives	42	81	21	33	57	34	17	42	71	7	58	72
CBJ	ES	1	06:10	0	0	GOAL! Anisimov from Dubinsky	42	81	21	33	57	34	17	42	71	7	58	72
TOR	ES	1	05:58	0	1	Kadri from Panik	15	43	18	2	3	34	41	56	43	44	47	72
CBJ	ES	1	04:12	0	1	Atkinson from Joyhanesn	24	47	19	44	51	34	19	38	13	7	58	72
CBJ	ES	1	04:04	0	1	GOAL! Jenner from Johansen	24	47	19	44	51	34	19	38	13	7	58	72
TOR	PP	1	03:04	0	2	Phaneuf wide from Kessel	42	81	21	3	44	34	17	42	7	58	72	-
TOR	PP	1	02:07	0	2	Rielly from Bozak	42	81	21	3	44	34	41	55	27	29	72	-
CBJ	ES	1	01:00	0	2	GOAL! Hartnell from Dano	15	43	19	2	3	34	41	56	43	27	29	72
TOR	ES	2	19:48	0	3	Kadri from rebound of Booth shot	15	43	20	2	3	34	41	56	43	27	29	72
CBJ	ES	2	19:27	0	3	Dano from Goloubef	15	43	20	2	3	34	41	56	43	27	29	72
TOR	ES	2	18:23	0	3	Kessel drives	42	81	21	2	3	34	17	42	71	7	27	72
CBJ	ES	2	17:39	0	3	Jenner drives	24	47	19	2	3	34	19	38	13	44	47	72
TOR	SH	2	17:12	0	3	Booth wide from Sill	22	20	33	57	34	-	19	38	13	7	58	72
CBJ	SH	2	16:43	0	3	Jenner from Atkinson	42	21	33	57	34	-	19	38	13	7	58	72
CBJ	SH	2	16:41	0	3	Savard from rebound of Jenner shot	42	21	33	57	34	-	19	38	13	7	58	72
CBJ	ES	2	14:51	0	4	Dubinsky wide from Calvert	24	47	19	44	51	45	17	11	71	7	58	72
TOR	PP	2	14:30	0	4	Rielly from Van Riemsdyk	42	81	21	3	44	45	17	19	27	29	72	-
CBJ	PP	2	14:02	0	4	Anisimov drives post	42	81	21	3	44	45	17	42	29	47	72	-
CBJ	ES	2	12:25	0	4	Letestu deflects Johnson shot	15	43	19	33	51	45	55	11	43	7	58	72
TOR	PP	2	08:15	0	4	Van Riemsdyk wide from Kessel	42	81	21	3	44	45	17	42	44	47	72	-
TOR	ES	2	07:23	0	4	Bailey from Booth	24	37	20	44	57	45	19	38	13	27	29	72
CBJ	ES	2	06:46	0	4	Dano deflects Savard shot	42	81	21	2	57	45	41	56	43	7	58	72
TOR	ES	2	02:18	0	5	Bozak drives	42	18	21	33	44	45	19	38	71	7	58	72
TOR	ES	2	02:08	0	5	Kessel from loose puck	42	81	21	3	51	45	17	42	71	7	58	72
TOR	ES	2	01:44	0	5	Bozak drives	42	81	21	3	51	45	17	42	71	7	58	72
TOR	ES	3	14:54	0	5	Lupul from loose puck	22	37	19	3	44	45	19	38	13	7	58	72
CBJ	ES	3	13:25	0	5	Foligno drives	24	18	20	2	51	45	42	55	71	27	29	72
TOR	PP	3	12:48	0	5	Bozak wide from Kessel	42	81	21	3	44	45	19	55	7	58	72	-
CBJ	ES	3	12:31	0	5	Calvert from Letestu	42	81	21	3	44	45	55	11	7	58	72	-
TOR	PP	3	11:13	0	5	Holland deflects Gardiner shot wide	24	43	19	33	51	45	17	42	44	47	72	-
CBJ	ES	3	09:46	0	5	Dano drives	22	37	20	2	57	45	41	56	43	7	58	72
TOR	ES	3	09:07	0	5	Kadri drives	15	43	18	33	44	45	55	9	11	44	47	72
TOR	ES	3	06:46	0	5	Bailey from Sill	15	22	37	3	57	45	19	38	13	7	29	72
TOR	ES	3	06:12	0	5	Booth drives post	43	18	20	33	44	45	19	56	43	27	29	72
CBJ	ES	3	04:16	0	5	Calvert from Johnson	24	37	19	51	57	45	55	9	11	7	58	72
TOR	ES	3	02:58	0	5	Kadri deflects Erixon shot	37	43	18	33	44	45	55	9	11	44	47	72
CBJ	ES	3	02:42	0	5	Wennberg deflects Dano shot wide	42	81	21	33	44	45	41	56	43	7	58	72

Player-by-Player data:

Player	Overall				Even Strength				ES Close
	For	Against	Diff	TOI	For	Against	Diff	TOI	For	Against	Diff
Brewer	5	11	-6	20:42	5	11	-6	19:59	3	5	-2
Phaneuf	14	10	4	23:53	9	8	1	17:40	3	5	-2
Lindstrom	4	3	1	13:50	4	3	1	12:13	1	0	1
Panik	5	1	4	11:41	5	1	4	10:59	1	0	1
Lupul	2	7	-5	15:38	1	7	-6	13:13	0	2	-2
Booth	5	3	2	15:28	4	3	1	13:33	1	0	1
Van Riemsdyk	10	14	-4	20:29	5	10	-5	14:24	1	8	-7
Sill	4	1	3	10:46	3	1	2	09:47	1	0	1
Holland	2	6	-4	15:20	1	6	-5	13:39	0	2	-2
Erixon	6	7	-1	15:44	4	5	-1	12:07	0	3	-3
Bailey	5	2	3	11:13	5	2	3	11:13	1	0	1
Bozak	10	14	-4	21:43	5	10	-5	15:08	1	8	-7
Kadri	6	3	3	13:59	5	3	2	11:19	1	0	1
Rielly	11	6	5	22:11	6	4	2	16:44	0	2	-2
Komarov	0	4	-4	07:06	0	4	-4	07:06	0	2	-2
Gardiner	3	6	-3	21:18	2	6	-4	17:18	0	2	-2
MacWilliam	3	8	-5	16:16	2	6	-4	14:02	0	3	-3
Kessel	9	12	-3	19:36	4	10	-6	14:01	1	8	-7
Reimer	8	15	-7	23:30	5	13	-8	20:23	3	10	-7
Bernier	13	9	4	36:30	9	7	2	28:30	0	0	0

The top line had very lopsided zone starts, with a 91% ratio of OZone starts to Dzone starts. That didn’t help their chance numbers, as they were, yet again, the worst line. All three players were -7 at ES Close, and while they were able to pull those numbers back somewhat in the final two periods, they still finished a long way short of even, with Kessel a team-low -6. Joffrey Lupul was also a -6 at ES, although most of his struggles came after the Leafs had fallen behind.

One of the bright spots was Casey Bailey. He hasn’t done a whole lot in his limited minutes thus far, but had a strong night tonight, on for five Leaf ES chances and a +3. Richard Panik had the best numbers of the Leafs, on for only a single Blue Jackets chance in eleven ES minutes. Nazem Kadri also had a good night in chances, and Joakim Lindstrom, despite the lowest zone start ratio on the team, managed to finish positive in chances as well.

Toronto’s regular defensive pairings ended up in the blender as the game went on, but one constant was that Eric Brewer had a tough night with any partner. After having a strong game against Ottawa, he struggled in terms of chances tonight, on for 11 Jackets chances, a team low, and finishing-6. Jake Gardiner also put up bad numbers, despite relatively soft zone starts. Morgan Rielly managed to finish in the positive, as did Dion Phaneuf, while Tim Erixon recovered somewhat after a bad start, -3 at ES Close.

Cumulative numbers this season:

Overall	Pos	#	Even Strength				ES Close
			For	Against	%	TOI	For	Against	%
Lindstrom	F	18	43	46	48.3%	09:27	28	26	51.9%
Kadri	F	72	350	370	48.6%	14:56	206	209	49.6%
Polak	D	56	286	346	45.3%	17:54	174	188	48.1%
Rielly	D	80	438	481	47.7%	17:04	236	267	46.9%
Sill	F	20	30	32	48.4%	07:20	15	17	46.9%
Panik	F	75	206	223	48.0%	10:21	113	132	46.1%
Gardiner	D	78	400	441	47.6%	18:11	215	255	45.7%
Bernier	G	57	748	885	45.8%	44:06	458	545	45.7%
Komarov	F	62	195	203	49.0%	12:01	102	123	45.3%
Phaneuf	D	69	383	467	45.1%	17:20	223	277	44.6%
Smith	F	54	129	153	45.7%	09:18	76	98	43.7%
Kessel	F	81	415	502	45.3%	15:03	233	310	42.9%
Lupul	F	54	211	291	42.0%	13:19	117	156	42.9%
Bozak	F	81	396	483	45.1%	14:53	211	290	42.1%
Holland	F	61	172	250	40.8%	11:42	93	132	41.3%
Reimer	G	35	418	525	44.3%	41:34	195	281	41.0%
Van Riemsdyk	F	81	377	510	42.5%	14:53	216	313	40.8%
Brewer	D	17	88	121	42.1%	18:03	50	73	40.7%
Carrick	F	16	23	32	41.8%	07:07	15	24	38.5%
Booth	F	58	145	203	41.7%	10:32	82	134	38.0%
Kozun	F	20	28	46	37.8%	07:26	13	22	37.1%
Robidas	D	52	192	267	41.8%	14:44	93	163	36.3%
Erixon	D	14	32	67	32.3%	12:33	21	45	31.8%

If this was the last we see of James Reimer this year (the way things have gone, I wouldn’t be stunned if Bernier ended up pulled on Saturday), then there’s been a statistical oddity that I’m not sure how to explain. Bernier’s chance numbers have been consistently a little bit higher than Reimer’s all season. The gap isn’t large, but it is the same relationship I saw last season. Over the two year stretch, the Leafs have had about 43% of chances at ES when Reimer was in, and about 46% with Bernier in net. What does this boil down to? Is it just a random distribution, and meaningless? Has Reimer gotten more difficult opponents, or more difficult circumstances (playing after travel, playing in 2nd game of back-to-back games, etc.)? Do the Leafs play differently in front of Reimer, reducing their ability to generate possession, meager as it is already? Or is it something about Reimer himself, such as his rebound control? I intend to take a little closer look at it in my post-season wrap-ups, but it’s something to ponder as the Leafs decided the future of Jonathan Bernier.