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The Hershey Bears stand in the way between the Toronto Marlies and the Calder Cup Final.

The Marlies‘ quest for their first ever championship will need to go through one of the most storied franchises in American Hockey League history in the Bears, who have won eleven titles since joining the league in 1938.

Better Know Your Enemy: The Hershey Bears

Washington’s affiliate has not tasted much playoff success in recent seasons, with this being the first occasion they’ve reached the Conference Final in six years. The two seasons before the lull saw Hershey win back-to-back championships, defeating Manitoba and Texas in 2009 and 2010, respectively.

The Bears are coached by Troy Mann, who spent five seasons as an assistant coach before leaving to take the top job with the Bakersfield Condors. It was a short-lived time away, as Mann returned a year later to Hershey, where he’s been the head coach for the past two seasons.

The Bears were the Atlantic Division Champions this season and were the second highest goal scorers in the Eastern Conference, trailing only Toronto. They also allowed 220 goals in the process, tied for worst among teams to qualify for the postseason in the East.

It’s been a tough road getting to this stage of the postseason for Hershey, having been pushed the full distance in both series thus far. Twice they fell behind to the Portland Pirates before showing defensive strength in games four and five, limiting Portland to just one goal through 120 minutes to clinch the series 3-2.

Round 2 brought a meeting with Hershey’s arch rivals, the Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins.
There wasn’t much love lost between the two old foes, as seen in the many scrums and fights throughout the seven games, with Tom Sestito and Jim O’Brien in particular constantly at each other’s throats throughout.

Hershey fell behind in the series after getting shut out 4-0 in game one. They recovered to take leads of 2-1 and 3-2, but the Pens proved difficult to dispatch, with game seven going to overtime before the Bears prevailed.

Hershey’s home form was strong during the regular season (24-7-2-5) and it’s continued that way in the postseason, winning five of seven at the Giant Center. On the road, the Bears have lost three of five, scoring 15 and allowing 17 in the process.

Overtime has been a feature for the Capitals affiliate, with 25% of their games needing extra time.

The Bears enter the Conference Final with the lowest goal differential of the remaining four teams at plus one (30 goals for, 29 against).

Offense Down Through Two Rounds

Hershey’s scoring has been a balanced effort, with 14 different players netting at least once and all 19 skaters dress registering two points or more, but the Bears have not found goals as easy to come by as they did during the regular season (3.4GPG). Hershey has averaged just 2.5 per game in the playoffs heading into this series.

One reason is that the reigning MVP, Chris Borque, is not firing on all cylinders. The 30-year-old winger produced 80 points in 72 regular season outings but has just seven points through 12 games in the postseason. It appears to be a matter of puck luck, though, as he leads the league in shots taken (45). He is shooting just 6.66% in the postseason after a converting at a 14.5% clip during his 30-goal regular season. Having won three Calder Cup Championships with Hershey, Borque will be a key figure if they are to have success against Toronto.

Other Bears struggling to replicate regular season success are Riley Barber and Nathan Walker, both having recorded just a single goal and assist each.

Rookie Jakub Vrana, the highest drafted Washington player on the Hershey roster as the Caps’ first-round pick (13th overall) in 2014, is currently tied for the team lead in playoff scoring with nine points. The Czech native hasn’t played much this season due to wrist surgery, but when healthy he put up 16 goals and 34 points in 36 regular season games.

Carter Camper, a proven AHL producer who hasn’t caught on in the NHL (three big-league games total), is tied with Vrana for the scoring lead on the team.

Another rookie to keep an eye out for is Travis Boyd. Coming out of college, Boyd has made an immediate impression with a 50-point season that included 21 goals. His two postseason goals have been game winners, including the OT marker in game seven of the WBS series.

Zach Sill will be a familiar name to Marlies fans, having played 21 games for the Leafs to end the 2014-15 season after coming over in the first Daniel Winnik trade. Five points in 12 playoff games is way above his career production average in the AHL.

Threats from the blue line mostly revolve around Aaron Ness and rookie Madison Bowey.
Hershey do not own the offensive presence Toronto does from its back end (led by former Bear, Connor Carrick, and TJ Brennan) and will be looking for both Ness and Bowey to step up in that regard.

Goaltending Has Turned Around for Hershey

Despite their .902 team save percentage ranking 27th during the regular season, one of the Bears’ biggest strengths through 12 playoff games has been in net. There was a battle for the starting position, much like in Toronto, but a clear winner has emerged in Justin Peters, who has recorded two shutouts, seven wins and a 0.935 save percentage in 11 outings. His save percentage is third best in the league, and he’s played more games than anyone else in the top 15 of the category — this despite a sub .900 save percentage during the regular season. Peters leads the league in both total minutes and saves.

Keys to the Series

Special teams played a huge part in Toronto’s last series win against Albany, and could well be an area they find a significant advantage in versus Hershey. Somewhat surprisingly, the Bears powerplay has only produced at 10.9% clip, scoring just six times on 55 opportunities and giving up a shorthanded goal in the process. The Marlies have produced at almost double that rate so far, scoring ten on far fewer opportunities.

The penalty kill has fared better for Hershey, running at 88.1% efficiency and allowing just seven goals against while tallying two shorthanded markers. Albeit in a much smaller sample size, the Bears’ PK is much improved from the regular season. On paper that department matches up evenly with Toronto, who are just a percentage point behind.

The elephant in the room is the scheduling of this series. It’s a case of “welcome to the AHL” for those not familiar with its foibles, as its teams’ buildings are multi-purpose venues where hockey is not always the main focus.

With the Giant Center hosting the circus later in May, Toronto will begin the series with a back-to-back on the road. A 2-3-1-1 schedule is not ideal, nor is starting away, but it could prove a blessing in disguise. As mentioned earlier, most of Hershey’s success in the postseason has occurred on home ice, but Toronto were often more dominant on the road during the regular season and took two of three games played in Albany after winning both games in Bridgeport in Round 1. A back-to-back should present no significant issue for a deep Toronto roster, while the benefit of a potential three-game home stand should not overlooked.

This series promises to be more entertaining from a viewing perspective, as Hershey’s main strength, at least during the regular season, is on offense. How much they adapt their approach to counter Toronto’s offensive potency will be of interest.

It’s a testament to their depth that the Marlies are here without William Nylander playing his best; assuming he’s healthy, one figures Nylander will find the level he’s accustomed to at some point.

In Justin Peters, the Marlies face a goaltender in as good a form as Scott Wedgewood, so generating traffic and driving the net will be required to break through.

The teams met just twice during the regular season, each handing the other a heavy defeat. Toronto enter this Conference Final as a clearer favourite than they did the last round versus Albany, according to the 888sport hockey odds, but how they handle that pressure could be as vital of a factor as any.


Toronto Marlies Round 3 Playoff Schedule vs. Hershey Bears

GameDateHome TeamTimeTV/Radio
1Friday, May 20Hershey7:00 p.m. ESTTSN2/TSN1050
2Saturday, May 21stHershey7:00 p.m. ESTTSN2/TSN1050
3Wednesday, May 25thToronto7:30 p.m. ESTTSN2/TSN1050
4Friday, May 27thToronto7:30 p.m. ESTTSN2/TSN1050
5*Sunday, May 29thToronto3:00 p.m. ESTTSN2/TSN1050
6*Tuesday, May 31stHershey7:00 p.m. ESTTSN2/TSN1050
7*Thursday, June 2ndToronto7:30 p.m. ESTTSN2/TSN1050
*if necessary

Toronto Marlies vs. Hershey Bears Matchup Stats

regular season only

CategoryTorontoHershey
Record54-16-5-143-21-5-7
Points %0.750 (1st)0.645 (5th)
GF/G3.82 (1st)3.33 (3rd)
GA/G2.5 (4th)2.8 (13th)
Goal Differential+103 (1st)+40 (6th)
Shots/Game32.5 (4th)27.92 (29th)
Est. Fenwick Close %52.82 (6th)50.89 (13th)
Shots Against/Game29.7 (12th)27.76 (4th)
Shooting Percentage11.17 (2nd)11.34 (1st)
Save Percentage.918 (3rd).902 (27th)
PDO102.96 (1st)101.54 (2nd)
Home27-9-2-024-7-2-5
Away27-7-3-119-14-3-2
OT9-55-5
Powerplay17.4% (10th)16.5% (18th)
Penalty Kill84% (12th)82.8% (17th)
PIMs/G12.3 (27th)14.2 (15th)

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