Toronto Maple Leafs (8-7-3, 21st in NHL) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (7-6-4, 23rd in NHL)
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. EST
Arena: Air Canada Centre
Watch: TSN4
Game Day Notes
– Meetings between Mike Babcock’s Toronto Maple Leafs and Bill Peters’ (a former Babcock disciple in Detroit) Carolina Hurricanes were chess matches last season; the two teams split seven goals over the three-game season series. The first meeting required a shootout to decide a 1-1 tie, the second went into overtime tied 0-0, and the other the Leafs won 3-1.
– The Leafs and Canes were low in scoring talent last season, something that’s changed so far this year with both teams receiving significant offensive contributions from the young talent on the roster. Three of the Hurricanes’ top four scorers are 23 and under: Victor Rask leads the team in scoring with eight goals and 15 points in 17 games, followed by Jeff Skinner, Teuvo Teravainen (10 points), and 19-year-old rookie Sebastien Aho (10 points). In Toronto, three of the top five scorers on the team are rookies with 13 points or more (Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Auston Matthews).
– After a 3-6-4 start, the Hurricanes have rattled off four wins in a row over a collection of good to very good teams: a 5-1 win over Washington, a 1-0 win over San Jose, a 3-2 win over Montreal, and a 3-1 win over Winnipeg.
– The Hurricanes and Leafs finished 27th and 28th, respectively, in goals per game last season and currently stand 16th and 3rd, respectively, 18 games into 2016-17. The Leafs are scoring more while the Hurricanes have been less permissive defensively. Carolina enters the game as the fourth-best possession team by Corsi For percentage, with Bill Peters’ team currently controlling 53.27% of shot attempts at even strength.
– Carolina’s Cam Ward, a season after finishing 25th of 29 in save percentage among NHL goalies with more than 40 games played (.909), has improved early on in 2016-17 with a 6-4-3 record and a .916 save percentage. Ward has won 16 of 29 starts against the Leafs over his career (.913 save percentage). Leafs starter Frederik Andersen is 2-1-0 (.911 save percentage) lifetime against the Hurricanes, the team that drafted Andersen 187th overall in 2010 before he returned home and re-entered the draft two years later, citing the lack of opportunity on the Canes depth chart behind Cam Ward and Brian Boucher.
– Said Nazem Kadri of the challenge offensively: “They’re not going to give you much room. Their coach coached in Detroit with Babs. Very similar style. They want to take away space. They want to stay above people, clog up and congest the neutral zone, and make you turn the puck over.”
– Kadri will be charged with shutting down the Jeff Skinner, Jordan Staal and Sebastien Aho unit. Staal has been a thorn in the Leafs’ side since the trade to Carolina in 2012 with six goals and 12 points in 11 games versus Toronto, but Kadri took the Jordan Staal matchup in two of three games versus Carolina last season with some success; he split the possession and kept Staal off the scoresheet in the Leafs’ 3-1 win last February, and scored with Staal on the ice in the Leafs’ 2-1 win in November.
– With home control over matchups in effect at the Air Canada Centre, Babcock will move William Nylander back to Auston Matthews’ wing and Connor Brown will return to Kadri’s wing. The Leafs are scoring 4.1 goals per game on home ice compared to just 2.22 goals per game on the road.
– Josh Leivo has been recalled from the Toronto Marlies but has not been officially cleared to enter the active roster.
– Toronto will play their second game in 24 hours tomorrow in New Jersey, accentuating the need for at least a point tonight. The Leafs are 0-3 in back-to-back situations so far this season and have been outscored 12-4 in those games.
Matchup Stats
Statistics courtesy of SportingCharts.com
| Stat | Car | Tor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 19 |
| Record % | 0.529 | 0.528 |
| Home Winning % | 0.625 | 0.778 |
| Away Winning % | 0.375 | 0.278 |
| Shootout Winning % | 0.5 | 0 |
| Goal Differential Per Game | -0.24 | -0.11 |
| Shot Differential Per Game | 2.06 | -1.06 |
| Hits Per Game | 19.4 | 27.2 |
| PIM Per Game | 7.1 | 12.2 |
| Opponent PIM Per Game | 8.8 | 13.5 |
| Goals Per Game | 2.59 | 3.17 |
| Even Strength Goals Per Game | 1.88 | 2.5 |
| Power Play Goals Per Game | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| Shots Per Game | 29.9 | 32.6 |
| Shots Per Goal | 11.6 | 10.3 |
| Team Shooting % | 0.086 | 0.097 |
| Power Play % | 0.196 | 0.216 |
| Goals Against Per Game | 2.82 | 3.28 |
| ES Goals Against Per Game | 2.41 | 2.72 |
| PP Goals Against Per Game | 0.24 | 0.5 |
| Shots Against Per Game | 27.88 | 33.61 |
| Shots Against Per Goal | 9.88 | 10.25 |
| Opp. Team Shooting % | 0.101 | 0.098 |
| Penalty Kill % | 0.913 | 0.842 |
| Save % | 0.899 | 0.903 |
| Goals Against Average | 2.78 | 3.25 |
| Shutouts | 1 | 0 |
| Opponent Save % | 0.914 | 0.903 |
| Opponent Goals Against Average | 2.55 | 3.14 |
| Opponent Shutouts | 0 | 1 |
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
Leo Komarov – Nazem Kadri – Connor Brown
James van Riemsdyk – Tyler Bozak – Mitch Marner
Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – William Nylander
Matt Martin – Ben Smith – Nikita Soshnikov
Defence
Morgan Rielly – Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Gardiner – Connor Carrick
Matt Hunwick – Roman Polak
Scratched: Martin Marincin, Frank Corrado, Peter Holland
Goaltenders
Starter: Frederik Andersen (Confirmed)
Backup: Jhonas Enroth
Carolina Hurricanes Projected Lines
Forwards
Jeff Skinner – Jordan Staal – Sebastian Aho
Teuvo Teravainen – Victor Rask – Elias Lindholm
Viktor Stalberg – Derek Ryan – Lee Stempniak
Brock McGinn – Jay McClement – Joakim Nordstrom
Defence
Ron Hainsey – Justin Faulk
Jaccob Slavin – Brett Pesce
Noah Hanifin – Matt Tennyson
Goaltenders
Starter: Cam Ward (Confirmed)
Backup: Eddie Lack
