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Bob McKenzie on the possibility the Leafs stand pat on defence, Matt Martin on the uncertainty of the expansion draft, the Leafs’ odds for the 2018 Stanley Cup, and more in the links.


Leafs/NHL Links

McKenzie: Don’t expect Leafs to go ‘big game hunting’ in Free Agency (TSN1050)
TSN Hockey insider Bob McKenzie joined Leafs Lunch to discuss the future of Joffrey Lupul, the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft, Malkin’s comments on the Oilers & Leafs, as well as if the Leafs are looking to add another defenceman in Free Agency.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again now: If they come back with their defence mostly intact from last year, along with the two young Swedes that they signed to compete for a spot as well as Travis Dermott, I wouldn’t be overly surprised. I don’t think they’re big-game hunting in free agency. That’s not to say… Pierre has been quoted as saying the Leafs are one of the teams talking to Anaheim about Sami Vatanen. I’m sure they’ll be looking to see if they can facilitate those types of deals, but I don’t think there is this burning desire that they absolutely must come back with somebody in the final and change up their group.

McKenzie: Nobody cares about hard feelings (TSN1050)
TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie joined OverDrive to discuss if the Leafs and Oilers are in the next crop of elite teams, the upcoming expansion draft, some potential players that could be on the move in the offseason, and what teams’ protected lists could look like.

On expansion draft “inducements” and the Anaheim situation:

Our understanding is that Kevin Bieksa, who has a No Movement Clause, was not asked by the deadline yesterday to waive the NMC. So that means he’s getting protected. If Kevin Bieksa is getting protected, it likely means that Josh Manson is going to be exposed. Josh Manson is a real good defenceman. Josh Manson, as I understand it, isn’t getting claimed by Vegas. I think there is a deal cooked there that Vegas is going to take somebody else other than the obvious choice and will get something for it. When we see all these protected lists and exposed lists, people are going to go, “Oh wow, look at this team” as they’re building the Golden Knights. And then they’re going to find out the expansion draft happened and some really good players didn’t get claimed. It’s because Vegas is getting inducements to not take certain players. Even when the list comes out on Sunday, don’t be fooled into thinking everyone who is available is actually available.

On when the player movement will pick up:

There is a freeze that goes into effect on Friday at 3 p.m; basically, a roster freeze that goes into effect in the lead up to the expansion draft. There may be some deals between now and Friday. I don’t know how big they’ll be, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see moves.

A lot of the stuff that’s happening now is stuff that people are cooking up with Vegas. They’re going to have multiple deals done. The fruit of those deals may not become apparent until next week sometime. As Vegas starts to go through the expansion draft process, then we’ll start to get a better handle on who they cut a deal with and what they’re getting for it. I think there is all sorts of talk going on on that front, and there are other teams that want to try to avoid losing a player and are either trying to talk to Vegas or maybe trying to move a guy somewhere else so that they don’t get caught losing a guy for nothing. I think the real action will set in after the expansion drafting leading into the entry draft next week. That’s when teams will get the heavy lifting done.

Ferraro: Seems to be an inevitability of success coming for Leafs (TSN1050)
TSN Hockey Analyst Ray Ferraro joins OverDrive to discuss the report Phaneuf will not waive his NMC, why he thinks the Leafs are in a good spot ahead of the expansion draft, and their bright future.

I would be slightly more excited about the overall picture with the Leafs than the Oilers because the Leafs do not have one contract that I can think of that you look at and think, “that thing might be an anchor.” They don’t have one of them.

There seems to be an inevitability of success coming down the road for the Leafs, just like you could look at it with Pittsburgh and say, “there’s an inevitability of success.” Does that lead to a Cup? I don’t know. They won in ’09 and then it took them seven years [to win another]. It’s bloody hard. The pieces — they just seem to be lined up so nicely.

Dreger: Vegas likely not willing to take bad contracts without kicker (TSN1040)
Darren Dreger says there are plenty of rumblings around possible Vegas trades, with Fleury, Columbus, and Anaheim in the discussions. Darren says Vegas is not in the running to take on bad contracts or dead money unless there’s a kicker involved.

We got word in the middle of the week last week that the Anaheim Ducks were pretty confident they weren’t going to lose a roster player because of some sort of arrangement; something they had worked out with the Vegas Golden Knights. The specifics are really difficult nail down. The sense I got from Anaheim is that they didn’t feel vulnerable at all based on a deal.

Martin on expansion draft: ‘Not something I’m stressing over’ (TSN)
With the expansion draft quickly approaching, Maple Leafs forward Matt Martin is playing it by ear.

I don’t want to say I think too much about it. Every time you go on Twitter and every time I talk to [the media] we talk about it, so it’s definitely in the back of my mind, but it’s not something I’m stressing over. That’s the nature of the business and if I end up in [Vegas], that’s where I end up. I’m sure it’s going to be a pretty good place to play hockey. If I stay in Toronto, then great. It’s going to be an interesting time for all of the players in the league, not really having been through this before.

Who has been asked to waive their no-movement clause? (Puck Daddy)
It appears they have found a solution, and it doesn’t include asking Kevin Bieksa to waive his NMC or leaving one of their highly-coveted defensemen unprotected. This is a smart move by Vegas, as Anaheim would have never let Sami Vatanen, Josh Manson or Jakob Silfverberg go for nothing. So they take say Andrew Cogliano or Antonie Vermette instead, while plucking an additional asset or two away from the Ducks.

Reports: Hartnell, Ladd, Boychuk not asked to waive no-move clauses (PHT)
When it comes to the Islanders, they are in an interesting position because they seem almost certain to lose a very good defenseman over the next week. The Islanders will almost certainly want to protect Nick Leddy and Travis Hamonic, while Boychuk will now be required to be protected along with them. That could leave a player like Calvin de Haan or Ryan Pullock exposed, unless the Islanders decide to forego the seven forward, three defensemen option and instead choose to protect eight skaters (four forwards, four defensemen).

Toronto Maple Leafs Expansion Draft Preview (Sportsnet)
Even if you expose Martin, you’re still likely to lose an intriguing prospect on the wing. Leaving four-line enforcer Martin and the three years and $6.5 million remaining on his deal exposed doesn’t send the right message to the player or to a room in which he’s beloved. The kids need a dad tougher than your dad, and Martin—who flips from knuckles and shoulders to jokes and wisdom with ease—fills an important role with the group, despite what your chart says. So, yes, we’ll use a spot on the slower, older guy here.

Preds’ Neal may be exposed to Vegas (TSN.ca)
The Predators are projected to Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson with their top three slots. That leaves just one protected spot for Neal, Colin Wilson, Calle Jarnkrok, Craig Smith, Colton Scissons and Auston Watson, leaving five of those six forwards available for the Golden Knights. LeBrun reports the decision will come down to Neal or Jarnkrok, though he notes the Predators could work out a trade with the Golden Knights to make sure neither is selected.

Odds to capture 2018 Cup look good for Oilers, Leafs, Canadiens (Toronto Sun)
Led my Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, the young Maple Leafs have the fourth-best odds at 16/1, joining a group that includes Carey Price’s Montreal Canadiens, the Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild and New York Rangers. The encouraging odds for the Oilers, Leafs and Canadiens comes just 14 months after no Canadian teams qualified for the 2016 NHL playoffs.

McKenzie: One of 10 scouts surveyed has Makar at #1 (TSN1040)
TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie says in the past, of the 10 scouts he surveyed, it was only Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick that got consideration for the number one overall pick in this draft. In his most recent survey of the 10 scouts, one of the 10 scouts had Cale Makar at number one.

Scott Darling: Goodbye, Chicago (Players Tribune)
On July 1, 2011, I ended up in a room with tubes and wires hooked up all over my body. There was a little machine beeping that showed my vital signs. It was my first day of rehab. I had been drinking every single day for eight months. I had just been released by a team in the Southern Pro Hockey League. I had no money, no hope. My dreams were effectively over. All I wanted, at that point, was to be a normal person again.

Elliotte Friedman on Dion Phaneuf, Kevin Bieksa, expansion draft (NHL Network)