Tonight, the Maple Leafs have an opportunity to do what they couldn’t accomplish in Game 4 in Tampa last May: put the Lightning on the brink of elimination as the series heads back to Toronto for Game 5 (7:30 p.m. EST, Sportsnet/CBC/TBS).
In the postmortem of last year’s series against Tampa, it was easy to focus on the Leafs giving up the 3-2 lead in the third period of Game 6 or yet another Game 7 loss in which their offense dried up, but Game 4 with a 2-1 lead was one of the moments when the Maple Leafs did not step on the opponent’s throat when they were down, allowing the Lightning hang around in the series. Tampa came out with significantly more urgency and built a 5-0 lead inside the opening 25 minutes en route to a 7-3 victory.
Tonight, we find out if this year’s Leafs team has another gear in its gearbox. Process-wise, the team needs to look at the last game — a dramatic come-from-behind 4-3 overtime win — for what it was: A stolen win that should provide them with a wake-up call to respond urgently in a situation where they’re fortunately in the great position of playing from ahead in this series.
A solid start to Game 3 on the road was followed by a complete aberration from the kind of game the Leafs need to play in order to dictate the terms against Tampa at five-on-five. They conceded the line too easily and readily collapsed on their own slot while getting worked inside the territorial battle for much of the final three periods. The zone exits, under the weight of a persistent and aggressive Tampa forecheck, became more about survival than working up the ice with pace and possession in order to tilt the ice back in the team’s favour.
All in all, through three games, the Maple Leafs have been edged in shot attempts, shots, and scoring chances at five-on-five, but the goals are 8-8 and the expected goals are marginally in Toronto’s favour (6.42-6.32).
The bend-but-don’t-break defensive commitment was a definite positive in Game 3 as well as the play of Ilya Samsonov and the individual clutch moments from the likes of Ryan O’Reilly and Morgan Rielly. The Lightning’s Pat Maroon called Game 3 “probably our best game of the season”; the Leafs might have taken Tampa’s best shot and still won the game. That could mean Game 3 was a series-turning development in the Leafs’ favour, but it only matters if they respond the right way in Game 4.
As the mind games and the matchup battles continue to play out as the stakes rise deeper into the series, the coaches are playing their cards closer to the chest. Sheldon Keefe hinted at a few game-time decisions as well as consideration toward splitting up Matthews-Marner, but he did not elaborate with any further details or anything approaching a confirmation as to the possible lineup adjustments.
Game Day Quotes
Sheldon Keefe on the adjustments needed ahead of Game 4:
Coming out of our end is going to be an important piece, getting through the neutral zone, and all of those kinds of things. Both teams are trying to establish very similar things in terms of trying to establish territory and getting on top of the opposition.
We are looking to [play] more or less the way we started the game. I liked a lot of how he started the game really up until Auston’s goal to put us up 2-1. If we can start that way again and look to sustain it, that would be the goal.
Luke Schenn on Ryan O’Reilly’s invaluable contributions to the team:
The first time I kept a really close eye on him was in the playoffs on St. Louis. He made the run there with my brother to the finals. You could see how good he was.
It’s every little detail… As a defenseman, he is around the puck all the time in the d-zone supporting the puck. He is heavy on his stick, which helps win battles and exit the zone. He is good at those little two-to-three-foot give-and-go plays.
Probably a lot of it doesn’t get talked about as much in the NHL these days — everyone talks about speed and play off the rush — but it is the little give-and-go plays out of corners and around the front of the net where he is really good, too.
He is a really good addition. He has been playing great for us and has been a workhorse for us.
Schenn on how the team can exit the zone better than in Game 3:
When you are disconnected and aren’t moving your feet, those passes aren’t there, and then you’re typically chipping it into no man’s land. That is when they recover, quick up it, and come back at you. Now you are playing in the defensive zone again, too.
A lot of it is skating, getting to spots, and finding goals where you are supporting your teammates. There are not a lot of stretch plays involved in the playoffs. It is the little short plays, chipping onto speed, and getting your feet going.
Ryan O’Reilly on the team’s goal of establishing the forecheck better than in Game 3:
We have to be more aggressive with it and a little tighter with it, too. In the last game, we were a little more hesitant with it trying to read it and not just kind of going and sorting it out from there.
In general, as a group, all five guys have to be involved. We have to be more aggressive with it. That will give us some more pucks back and more possession.
Keefe on the play of the McCabe – Brodie pairing in the series:
I thought they had a tough game the other night coming out of their end, which has been a real strength of theirs. They just have to get back to that.
Those guys have played a lot and taken on really difficult matchups. They played extremely well for us down the stretch. I think they can play better collectively. I believe that they will.
That in and of itself will help us greatly.
Keefe on the play of Matthews-Marner in the matchup against the Cirelli line:
Those guys are good players. That is a big part of it. They have had time away from them as well, and I think it helps.
They’re good players. They are going to do a good job of carrying the play. Last year, they were pretty dominant in the series as well in that regard.
It is one thing to carry the play and spend time in the offensive zone. It is another thing to find ways to produce and score goals. That is an additional challenge.
They scored us a big goal last game. They had a good night in Game 2. Those guys just have to continue to go with it.
The bigger challenge for me: We had three lines that were really struggling the other night. That was something for me to manage and try to find ways through that. In the third period, we split up Auston and Mitch, and we thought we could get a little more help from the other lines. Those are all different things we have to look at.
Those guys, when they are together and they’re good, have good chemistry and make it a challenge on the opposition. We have to balance things out, too.
Jon Cooper on what his team did well to tilt the ice on Toronto in Game 3:
Everything. We played hard. We competed hard. When you do that, usually, good things happen. We were skating. We were pretty physical. We were on top of things.
It is hard because Toronto has a good team. You have to take advantage of the chances when you get them. But, in the end, it wasn’t quite enough.
Our compete was really high in the game. We have to make sure we do that again. As you saw, it wasn’t quite good enough, and we have to be a little bit better.
Cooper on his team’s response to a tough Game 3 loss:
Being around this group, I never walk in and say, “This team looks defeated.” That is one of the things that has made me proud of our group. There is always fight in the dog.
I just felt that night coming in that there was more anger than depression. I really liked that. I think they wanted to play this game right after last game. There was a lot of that.
There was no hanging of the heads. There was no, “I can’t believe we lost that.” I think they have got a little bit of the eye of the tiger. It was good.
Cooper on Ryan O’Reilly’s impact on the series:
I am not going to get into a practice of talking about Leaf players. They are not our team. I am here to talk about our guys.
I had O’Reilly, though, so I will give it a break because I have coached him. He is a fabulous kid.
I am going to stay away from the hockey side of things. Just as a human being, I really enjoyed coaching him. He has natural-born leadership skills. He is a guy you love to have on your team.
Plus, if you need someone to play the guitar, he’ll do it.
Patrick Maroon on the team’s tough Game 3 loss and whether the Lightning can build on it despite the result:
We felt we played a hell of a game. I thought was probably our best game of the year, to be honest with you. I thought we stuck with our structure. We did everything right.
The only thing we didn’t do is score enough goals. You have to give credit to the goalie, who made big-time saves. Honestly, I thought we had control.
Keep breaking out pucks clean and doing all the little things — not getting hemmed in too long. We broke it out well, and that goes into our offense.
When we are onto offense, it is not making hope plays into the middle. It is holding onto it, making the right plays, getting it up to the D, and getting that shot-and-scramble game going with the second and third opportunities going against the goalie. We did a good job of that.
It starts in the D-zone. The faster you close in the D-zone, the faster you get to play on offense, and the faster you get to move off the puck, the more chances you get, and the less time you spend in the D-zone.
Good teams find a way to win, and they found a way to win the last game. Give them credit for sticking with it, but we just have to keep working and keep doing what we have been doing. Hopefully, we get a better result.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#19 Calle Järnkrok – #34 Auston Matthews – #16 Mitch Marner
#15 Alex Kerfoot – #91 John Tavares – #88 William Nylander
#23 Matthew Knies – #90 Ryan O’Reilly – #52 Noel Acciari
#12 Zach Aston-Reese – #64 David Kämpf – #28 Sam Lafferty
Defensemen
#22 Jake McCabe – #78 TJ Brodie
#55 Mark Giordano – #3 Justin Holl
#44 Morgan Rielly – #2 Luke Schenn
Goaltenders
Starter: #35 Ilya Samsonov
#60 Joseph Woll
Scratched: Wayne Simmonds, Timothy Liljegren, Erik Gustafsson, Erik Kallgren
Injured: Matt Murray, Nick Robertson, Jake Muzzin, Victor Mete Suspended: Michael Bunting
Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines
Forwards
#91 Steven Stamkos – #21 Brayden Point – #86 Nikita Kucherov
#38 Brandon Hagel – #71 Anthony Cirelli – #17 Alex Killorn
#79 Ross Colton – #20 Nick Paul – #84 Tanner Jeannot
#14 Patrick Maroon – #41 Pierre-Édouard Bellemare – #10 Corey Perry
Defensemen
#77 Victor Hedman – #48 Nicklaus Perbix
#98 Mikhail Sergachev – #43 Darren Raddysh
#28 Ian Cole – #24 Zach Bogosian
Goaltenders
Starter: #88 Andrei Vasilevskiy
#1 Brian Elliott
Injured: Erik Cernak, Michael Eyssimont
