Too many NHL players to fit on the roster is a good problem to have.
With preseason (finally) over, the Leafs have decisions to make to cut down a group that includes 13 NHL forwards, two other NHL forwards on PTOs, eight NHL defensemen, and Philippe Myers and Marshall Rifai (waived yesterday), who I would argue are both capable of taking regular shifts in the league. Their two goalies are set, and even then, the Leafs could have one, if not two, other reasonable NHL options.
There are many moving parts to work through, but it’s not entirely cut and dry, given the injury situation. Neither Connor Dewar nor Jani Hakanpaa played in a preseason game, although both have been practicing with the team over the past week. If both players start the season on LTIR, it opens up nearly $1.6 million of LTIR space and potentially two roster spots (although both would need to sign league-minimum deals to fit in). Calle Jarnkrok and Jake McCabe have also been out due to injury, although it doesn’t sound like either situation is particularly concerning.
Management can kick the can down the road on making a notable decision on a player depending on how they use LTIR, but at some point, at least one decision of note will be necessary.
Last training camp, the Leafs weren’t faced with nearly the same type of decisions, but the one they did make didn’t pan out. The team traded Sam Lafferty, signed Noah Gregor, and kept Fraser Minten with the big club. Minten lasted all of four games in the league, while the Leafs had to effectively trade for a fourth-line left winger/penalty killer at the trade deadline in Connor Dewar because Gregor did not work out. Lafferty’s 13 goals would have ranked ninth on the team last season, and I would argue he would have been a substantial upgrade on Gregor on the penalty kill, a unit that plagued the Leafs all season and in the playoffs.
Was it a massive, needle-moving decision? No, of course not, but it set off a mini domino effect of moves that made them just a little worse.
I mentioned this last summer about Brad Treliving coming out of preseason:
The Calgary Flames brought Sonny Milano into camp, but he didn’t impress them in preseason, they cut him, and he signed with Washington on a cheap one-year deal. He subsequently earned a three-year extension, finishing the season with 33 points in 64 games.
It wasn’t earth-shattering, but for a Flames team that looked for a top-nine winger all season, finished 19th in goals per game, controlled possession but struggled to finish, and finished two points out of a playoff spot, maybe it would have been enough.
Years earlier, in 2015, Treliving placed Paul Byron on waivers at the end of training camp. Montreal claimed him, and he went on to play seven seasons and record back-to-back 20+ goal seasons as a Hab.
A few seasons later, Treliving traded Brett Kulak away for essentially nothing (Matt Taormina and Rinat Valiev). Kulak is still in the league and has been a regular on two teams that made it to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Again, these aren’t earth-shattering moves, but they made his teams a little worse. Those decisions add up over a season and potentially multiple years. For a Leafs team that is clearly committed to paying and building around their stars, they can’t continually lose the small moves around the core and get worse on the margins.
Now, as they need to pare down the lineup, the potential for mistakes is definitely there. These are a few of the things I would be weighing at this point:
– Is Max Pacioretty about to sign and take some, if not all, of Bobby McMann’s minutes? Nick Robertson is locked in an opening night roster spot, so there’s seemingly one open job in the top nine to go. Darren Dreger speculated that Pacioretty would be the 13th forward to start and McMann the third-line left winger. If this is the case, I think it’s a good plan; Pacioretty needs to work his way into the lineup, and the goal should be to load manage him, not play him a ton over younger, fresher options in McMann and Robertson. Can they afford to keep Pacioretty as the 13th forward, though?
– It seems to be a popular opinion to have Pacioretty replace Calle Jarnkrok for half the price, but they are not similar players. Jarnkrok can kill penalties, be trusted to close out a lead, play all three positions, and take faceoffs as a right-handed shot (which the Leafs generally lack). Pacioretty can’t do any of those things. In each of his last two preseason games, he gave up pucks along the wall during breakouts that directly resulted in goals against. He produced some, but he struggled to break out, and his skating is still a major question mark. The Leafs also need to place some value on penalty killers and defensive checkers because they didn’t last season, which was a big reason they couldn’t defend.
– Is Conor Timmins about to push Timothy Liljegren off the roster altogether? Timmins makes roughly $1.9 million less than Liljegren, and they have both shown that they can perform well in third-pairing minutes, which is where either would be slotted when everyone is healthy. From a cap standpoint, there is logic to it, but Timmins can’t be trusted to stay healthy, and we have no idea how Jani Hakanpaa’s knee will hold up. Depending on the trade return, I’d understand the logic, but it can easily backfire. Only Liljegren has shown to be a viable option to move up the lineup if/when an injury occurs among those three options, and I wouldn’t be banking on Chris Tanev playing 82 games, either.
– Similarly, I like what Philippe Myers has done. Ideally, he also stays in the mix, but I’m mindful about whose spot he would take. He is good insurance for Jani Hakanpaa in that he’s a big righty with some bite and has flashed ability on the penalty kill (though Hakanpaa is well-established there). I’m not sure he’s capable of sliding into the top four this season as Liljegren can, and if everyone is healthy, he has almost no chance of playing in the starting six; it would only happen if someone else’s game fell off a cliff. Myers got into a few games with Tampa in each of the past two seasons and didn’t come close to sticking either time, and those were not great Tampa defense units (they made major changes this summer as a result). Camp and preseason are important – I don’t want to diminish it – but it’s important to keep the bigger picture in mind.
– It is very easy to be frustrated with Timothy Liljegren. He has had a lackluster preseason, which is disappointing, considering he signed a $3 million per year season and has a fresh start with a new coach. Robertson’s camp is what you’d like to see from a young player with new life under a different head coach. But it’s important to remember that Liljegren has won his minutes every year and has outscored opponents at 5v5 in his three full seasons. There’s a reasonable sample size of solid play, and it’s more likely that he is that player than this preseason version. Preseason often plays tricks on us.
– All of that said, Liljegren is making a lot of money to be a fifth defenseman. If they fetch good value, it would make sense for a team with second, fifth, six, and seventh-round picks in the upcoming draft. With this depleted arsenal of draft capital, they can barely buy at the trade deadline. However, if they’re simply getting rid of his cap hit to fit in a combination of a fourth-line forward, a 36-year-old forward who is trying to come back from a bad injury, and a talented defenseman who hasn’t played more than 25 games in a season since the 2020-21 campaign, it could look bad by Christmas. This has to be a trade where you say, “Good return,” not, “They did this to make room for these other things.”
– I like Steven Lorentz. He understands his role, is massive, can skate, and has flashed ability on the penalty kill. He received plenty of exposure playing on the Cup champs, and not only did they move on from him, but he ultimately settled for a PTO in Toronto. Lorentz scored one goal last season (though he potted two in the playoffs). In isolation, I like what Lorentz and Ryan Reaves bring, but banking on them to play together on a regular basis seems… ambitious. I’m not sure either can do enough with the puck to get it going (and staying) up the ice, and we know that David Kampf isn’t going to drive a line even if he’s solid defensively. The fourth line looked effective with Connor Dewar on the left of Kampf and Reaves, and I liked it when Pontus Holmberg was on the unit, too. It gave them a player who could carry the puck. If you have to start with them together in game one because Dewar is on LTIR, fair enough, but a Dewar – Reaves combo like last season or Lorentz – Jarnkrok combo makes a lot more sense to me as a viable season-long fourth line.
– I still don’t believe the Leafs have someone who can take the defensive faceoffs or responsibilities that David Kampf does. Kampf was 14th in the league in total defensive-zone faceoffs taken last season; nobody is replacing this outright among those currently on this roster, so it means more defensive zone starts for Matthews and Tavares, which nobody should want (not that they’re bad in those situations, but you want them to put the puck in the net the other way). That said, I’d be weighing the viability of all of Holmberg, Dewar, Lorentz, and even Jarnkrok and Domi as center options. Can you find two out of that group and split up the responsibilities across all four lines? Domi aside, Kampf makes more and is signed for more years than all of those players. He has to be really good to justify the price tag, and will he be really good if he’s largely centering Reaves on the fourth line? I like Kampf, but the way they are deploying the line is more of an energy line vs. a defensively-stout shutdown line. At that point, it makes a lot less sense to me, financially speaking.
Sorting through the roster decisions is messy, and ideally, the Leafs can buy themselves some time through LTIR. That’s really the key question in this at this point: They are likely going to try to maneuver this group of 15 forwards and nine defensemen through LTIR, so any guesses without knowing the extent to which they can work the injured reserve are a bit of a fool’s errand.
Can they keep everyone and kick the can down the road on making a consequential decision? If all of Hakanpaa, Dewar, and Jarnkrok start on LTIR, they can do so. If Jarnkrok is healthy, Myers on waivers is the easiest option, but I’d explore a Kampf trade – his deal is jamming their books for three years, and they have a collection of internal options.
It’s also noteworthy that Treliving proactively signed Marshall Rifai to a two-year (one-way) extension that kicks in next season and gave Matt Murray a $100K signing bonus the week the season begins to dissuade teams from claiming them on waivers. It’s a smart strategy, and we will see if it works. These are two players I would expect to see playing for the Leafs at some point during the season.
Wrapping up Preseason
A few other notes from the final preseason games:
– I mentioned Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Timothy Liljegren as an offensive pair and Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe as a defensive pair. While the Leafs have been sticking to the OEL – McCabe pairing, against Detroit, I did notice they were kind of taking this approach. OEL – Timmins took a number of offensive zone faceoffs together, which pushed Myers down with Benoit at times. Presumably, if McCabe was in the lineup, this would continue. Mike Van Ryn did this last season and would typically move Liljegren up with Rielly for offensive-zone faceoffs. It’s a minor tweak but an attempt to put his players in situations to excel. These two pairings are not written in marker; they sometimes tweak and optimize them.
– The Morgan Rielly – Chris Tanev pairing, on the other hand, is generally locked in. They were attached at the hip, and the difference between Rielly with a righty versus a lefty is already very noticeable. They have been snapping pucks to each other in the offensive zone, something that couldn’t happen with a lefty partner for Rielly. Even though Tanev doesn’t own much of a shot, they have looked dangerous. I also noticed that they helped the fourth line move up the ice; this could be an avenue to nudge the fourth line to better results.
– In turn, the Leafs’ fourth line (and sometimes third line) is playing a lot more simply in the offensive zone. They have generally looked to cycle pucks to the point and crash the net. It’s how they should play; they aren’t skilled enough to make a bunch of small-area plays. Win battles, and get bodies and pucks to the net. Berube has mentioned point shots already after one of the preseason games, and while they’re generally viewed as low percentage, I like the odds of a Rielly or OEL point shot through traffic compared to a Reaves or Lorentz shot attempt from the faceoff circles.
– It was interesting to see Max Domi assume more of a “go to the net” role playing alongside Tavares and Nylander. A few times, he would post up in front of the net as the other two worked the walls against Detroit, which was a major question I had for the line (who would go to the net). Bertuzzi did it for the Tavares-Nylander duo last season, and the trio won their minutes 16-12 and generally controlled play. Bertuzzi did a lot of the dirty work on the line, which was a major reason I was interested in retaining him (before knowing he’d get $5.5 million per year). Domi is obviously a different player, but he was assuming some of the same tasks that Bertuzzi did well, including recovering a puck off a shot attempt that went wide and setting Nylander up for a one-timer in the slot. Will he buy into the role on a consistent basis? Unlike Bertuzzi, Domi will be more skilled when he gets the puck in open ice, but it would be a big change for him to be more of a crasher and banger to set the table for Tavares and Nylander.
– We’ll see if it’s just a preseason thing, but the Leafs do seem at least semi-serious about Nick Robertson on the penalty kill. Both Berube and Treliving mentioned him checking well multiple times and noted his PK contributions (he looked good there as well). If he’s able to stick on the penalty kill and play on the second power-play unit (which should be a lock), his ice time is going to shoot way up.
There is a lot to like about this Leafs team. This is clearly a deep group full of viable NHL options and contributors. There is star power, talent with room to grow, established, productive veterans, and a veteran coaching staff. It’s now going to be about bringing it all together and optimizing the group. There are 15 NHL forwards and nine NHL defensemen, but only 12 forward spots and six defense spots are available on any given night. How does Leafs brass whittle it down, and once they do, who goes where? A lot remains up in the air.
