The Maple Leafs are in the midst of a brutal stretch of their schedule; it’s hard to remember a season with more back-to-backs in a single month.
It’s true the Leafs‘ coaching staff was able to manage the ice time in the win over the Sabres last night, and the team didn’t have any travel of note to return home from Buffalo, but the team just played its seventh game in 12 days with two sets of back-to-backs. It is no joke.
With that in mind, the two biggest keys to success when in a really tough schedule situation like this one— facing a well-rested opponent and missing your best player to boot — are playing smart/giving up nothing cheaply, plus really solid goaltending.
Joseph Woll wasn’t his sharpest tonight, and the Leafs gave up two odd-man rush goals in the first period alone to put themselves down 3-1. There’s the hockey game, more or less.
With Auston Matthews’ absence, Craig Berube elevated David Kampf in between Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies, rather than Max Domi, to keep his red-hot third line together. With that in mind, it’s never ideal to respond to such a show of faith by getting scored on during your very first shift. Nick Robertson was fresh off the bench when he finished a hit on Maxim Tsyplakov in the neutral zone, and he was right with him; he can’t stop moving his feet and get beat back to the front of the net for the 1-0 goal.
A few minutes later, Morgan Rielly got caught in between on a play in the neutral zone, more taking a peek than fully committing to closing off Holmstrom on the wall. The puck got by Rielly after a bounce off the boards, and with David Kampf peeling for a change as Bo Horvat flew up the ice, the neutral zone parted for a 2v1 rush. This was a save Woll usually comes up with, but it almost looked like he wasn’t fully out and challenging the shooter with the full confidence that Conor Timmins had the pass taken away.
After a beautiful William Nylander goal got them right back in it, the Leafs needed to get out of the first period down just one. Jake McCabe went on an unnecessary little fishing expedition and got caught, then recovered terribly, leading to the 3-1 JG Pageau goal. You could see Chris Tanev beside himself about some of the decision-making after this goal, as his lips clearly read, “What the f**** are we doing?”
This was a schedule loss at the end of the day, but it is a little frustrating that the Leafs made it so easy on the Isles. It makes it really, really difficult for the tired team when they’re chasing a game from multiple goals down before five minutes have elapsed.
You also need a few bounces to go your way in these situations, which the Leafs didn’t get in the third period when two point shots went in off Leaf legs; everyone seemed to credit the 5-2 goal to Bo Horvat, thinking it was a nice redirect, but it actually went in off of Bobby McMann’s skate, shortly after the 4-2 goal went in off of Tanev’s shinpad. That’s on top of the referees swallowing their whistles all night, which never helps the chasing team. Still, the Leafs were out-shot attempted by roughly a 60/40 margin in all three periods, so it’s not like they earned a ton of breaks.
The silver lining was William Nylander, one of few Leafs who had his legs from the drop of the puck. He temporarily tied the league lead in goals with 23 (before Leon Draisaitl’s OT goal vs. San Jose), thanks to his second multi-goal game this week. Clearly, he has been a big-time offensive leader in general for the team — scoring 20% of their goals to date — but it’s worth highlighting his recent offensive contributions in the second half of back-to-back situations.
Nylander tied the game in the second period in Pittsburgh on December 7, picked up a goal and assist in the comeback win in Washington on November 13, picked up a goal and an assist versus Montreal on November 9, and scored the team’s lone goal in Minnesota in the 2-1 OT loss on November 3rd. He also grabbed an assist in Buffalo in the Leafs’ win in a back-to-back situation last weekend. Now, add in another two goals in a tired situation tonight. He’s one of the most well-conditioned athletes in the league, and it shows. He played 20:50 tonight, most among forwards, all coming at five-on-five with zero penalties called in the game.
There was a lot of line shuffling in this game without much to take away from it, but the educated guess is that if Auston Matthews remains out for the game against Winnipeg on Monday afternoon, Craig Berube will start with Max Domi up in the top six rather than David Kampf, probably with Domi in between Matthew Knies and Mitch Marner (leaving the Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander line intact). As awesome as the third line’s offensive tear was — and it’s great to have as an option, one they should absolutely turn to again when the time and lineup situation is right — the Jets run a balanced top nine, as did the Isles tonight, and there are fewer soft matchups for the third line to exploit. The tradeoff of then needing to slot Kampf on one of the top-six lines probably isn’t worth it with that kind of matchup dynamic.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
