With the Four Nations tournament under three weeks away, trade talks are starting to pick up around the NHL.
Seven trades were completed in December ahead of the Christmas break and trade freeze. A few GMs and insiders have speculated that we could see a similar flurry before the Four Nations break, which could act as an unofficial trade deadline of sorts before the real one takes place a month later.
The logic makes sense, as it allows organizations to bring in a player earlier for more game action and to get them acclimated to a new city during a two-week pause. As Brad Treliving noted just over a week ago, the Leafs have already held their pro scouting meetings.
Before we can discuss the players worth acquiring, though, we need to determine the Leafs’ actual needs.
There are two clear needs at this point, and we don’t need to overthink it.
Center ice
The first obvious need is down the middle.
Brad Treliving was somewhat open about it last week:
Treliving: “Are there ways we can continue to look at adding to (center)? Sure. There is some depth there. Is that an area we want to continue to look at? Sure, it is one. We probably, along with 15 or 18 other teams, are looking at center depth. This seems to be a position du jour.”
This need is evident for a few reasons.
First, the Leafs‘ most common 3C is Max Domi, who has largely struggled in the role. He is pacing for the lowest goals-per-game output of his career and to tie his lowest points-per-game mark. Some of it is because he played through injury for an extended period of time, but even when healthy, he has been too inconsistent offensively, and he’s not strong enough defensively to live with it.
The Leafs recently subbed in Pontus Holmberg at 2C over Domi with John Tavares injured and inserted a rookie at center (Fraser Minten) on L3 because of Domi’s iffy season to date. That pretty well sums it up. None of those three – Domi, Holmberg, or Minten – are truly good playoff options who make you feel comfortable and confident at this stage.
There is also an argument to be made about adding a different type of center to play with William Nylander, which opens up the option to bump Tavares down a line to face softer matchups (or even up a line to play on the wing with Matthews and Marner).
Over the past three playoff runs, the Tavares-Nylander combination has been outscored 8-6 at five-on-five. They don’t face the toughest matchups, and not only are they not owning their minutes, they are actively losing them. This is the first time in three seasons that the duo is in the black in five-on-five goals. While that’s a positive development, I tend to not fully buy into it, although Bobby McMann’s emergence is a legitimate reason to believe in the overall trio.
Tavares was pacing to play to a near 40-goal, 80-point pace over 82 games before falling injured. They almost certainly wouldn’t be able to acquire a center capable of surpassing this production – which Treliving readily admitted — but they could find a better fit beside Nylander. Nylander doesn’t need much help, but a speedier center who can keep up with him while also covering for him defensively, allowing Tavares to drive L3, would make the overall team much better.
While there’s no question the Leafs need depth, it’s also important to note that as they have started to get healthy – specifically Auston Matthews – the team has been scoring more than enough. Since December, the Leafs are the second-highest-scoring team in the league in goals per game. They led the league in goals per game last season and only really lost Tyler Bertuzzi at forward over the offseason. It is top-heavy, but there is legitimate talent, and the Leafs should easily boast six 20+ goal scorers up front.
Top-Four Defenseman
We can’t exactly say the same about the top-end quality of the Leafs’ defense as we can at the forward position.
As it stands today, the Leafs have one good pairing they can bank on, and it’s a very good one in Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev. There is no argument about the quality of the pairing; the Leafs can feel good about trusting them head-to-head against anyone in any playoff series.
The rest of the blue-line group leaves a lot to be desired. Morgan Rielly isn’t enjoying a strong 2024-25 season to date. Last season, we saw where OEL should be slotted on a Cup winner – #5D. I don’t think OEL’s play has done anything this season to dispel this notion or show he can be counted on for more. They have tried pairing Rielly and OEL together for long stretches, and the results have been mediocre.
Against Tampa Bay on Monday night, the Leafs tried splitting McCabe-Tanev across two pairings to mix and match with Rielly and OEL, and it was akin to going from a 9/10 pairing and a 6/10 pairing to two 7/10s at best.
The only potential source of hope internally is if Jani Hakanpaa can make a triumphant return and form a pairing alongside Rielly that’s similar to the Rielly-Schenn and Rielly-Lyubushkin duos from the past couple of playoffs. If they added that calibre of pairing to the high-end McCabe-Tanev duo, the Leafs would feel a lot better about the overall group. But Hakanpaa’s situation is a huge if, one that is extremely hard to bank on right now.
The Team’s Biggest Need
At forward, it’s also worth noting that Calle Jarnkrok is now skating and will presumably return at some point this season. His playoff struggles have been well-documented at this point, but he is a legitimate double-digit goal scorer and proper NHLer who would raise the floor of the Leafs’ bottom six ever so slightly. He would certainly represent an upgrade over some of their other options.
Ideally, the Leafs fill both of the above-outlined needs, but they are bringing a knife to a gunfight at the trade deadline. They don’t have a 2025 first-round pick to dangle or a second-round pick in 2026. Their most attractive assets are prospects at this point, making it very difficult to swing trades to fill both needs, depending on how many futures the organization is willing to sacrifice. They may have to resort to a similar buy-low approach as last year, at least for one of the two positions.
The more I watch this team, the clearer it becomes that the Leafs’ top need should really be a top-four defenseman. As much as they need a 3C, a top-four defenseman makes a much more significant difference to the team’s bottom line.
The acquired defenseman could play anywhere from five to eight minutes more per game than a 3C. The Leafs are dressing two of Myers, Benoit, and Timmins on any given night, which is an adventure. They don’t even have three dependable top-four defensemen right now with the way Rielly is performing. On paper, they have one of the weaker defense units among playoff teams, and the top of their unit doesn’t exactly boast a true 1D, even if McCabe and Tanev are both excellent players.
It’s not as fun or sexy as a center – and I’m well aware that the Leafs have largely struggled to score in the playoffs – but a large part of their offensive issues stem from not moving the puck cleanly up the ice. As we’ve seen with the McCabe-Tanev pairing, they can control the pace of the game and set the table for the forward line they share the ice with.
When McCabe missed time, the team really struggled (it’s probably not overstating the situation to describe it as day vs. night with and without McCabe this season). On the flip side, the Leafs have rolled along collecting points during Matthews’ and now Tavares’ absences.
The emergence of Knies and McMann makes the team’s top six far more formidable. Pairing those top-six lines with another good defense pairing to make the team 10-strong will move the needle far more than a 3C.
I’d argue that two high-end defense pairings can help the Leafs form three strong lines more than three-deep forward lines can overcome the Leafs’ current makeup on defense.
Whether an appropriate fit will even be available – let alone if the Leafs can even pull off the trade – is another story altogether, but the defense would be my primary focus as things stand currently. At the end of the day, I don’t think this defense is good enough overall.
From a talent standpoint, their forwards are good enough. Their issue up front has been delivering in the playoffs. They can add a quality depth player for a small price, get fully healthy (or close to it), and easily put together four good lines.
On defense, there is a legitimate talent issue.
A Few Thoughts on Rumoured Targets
Scott Laughton
Scott Laughton’s name has come up for well over a year now as a prototypical 3C option for the Leafs, and it resurfaced again when he scored against the Leafs a few weeks ago in their home-and-home series.
Also noticeable in those games: Laughton didn’t actually play center. In fact, his head coach, John Tortorella, is on record stating he prefers him on the wing. If we consider Laughton more of a winger than a center, it really changes the calculation.
Laughton’s jam and defensive play are brought up a lot, but I actually like Laughton because he’s a good secondary scorer and the Leafs need more scoring depth. In his last two seasons, Laughton has tallied 43 points in 78 games, followed by 39 in 80. He’s already at 23 (nine goals) in 47 games this season. He’d rank seventh among Leafs forwards in goals, and at his $3M cap hit, it’s a sensible fit all-around.
Laughton is a legitimate .5 point per game player, and this is a team that’s regularly run out Pontus Holmberg, Max Domi, and Nick Robertson, among others, on its third line. Laughton is pacing to outproduce all of them, and the Leafs have lacked secondary scoring in every playoff. Laughton would assist them in this department.
Laughton also *can* play center. My argument isn’t that he can’t play in the middle at all. Much like Max Domi, he can move over in a pinch and sometimes give his team good games there, but as we see with Domi, there is a difference between a full-time center and someone who can adequately fill in down the middle.
Even as a winger who can pinch-hit at center and maybe even spend extended time there, I’d still be interested in Laughton. He can produce, and the Leafs can play him in every situation. His speed is a lot better than it receives credit for.
There are still quite a few positives with Laughton, but the asking price from the Flyers sounds crazy. Their local media speculated they wouldn’t move him, “Unless he’s involved in a deal for that elusive top-line center they’re looking for, don’t expect Laughton to go anywhere.”
This is ostensibly a third-line left winger. At the above-mentioned price, the Leafs may as well acquire Reilly Smith for a third-round pick (the price he’s moved for before); he’s also a 40-point winger who has won a Cup (and been to a Cup final).
There is also Brandon Tanev; he won’t produce as much as Laughton, but he is another quality penalty killer with speed and jam who can chip in offense and hit double-digits in goals.
Yanni Gourde
DailyFaceoff has listed the Leafs as a suitor for Gourde, and when Brad Treliving mentioned wanting a center who is good at both ends of the ice, he was the first player who sprung to mind.
A lot of people gravitate to Gourde’s 5’9 frame, but he checks a lot of boxes and plays with more jam than many players half a foot taller than him.
Gourde is a full-time center and a good one at that. He has won two Cups, been a gamer in the playoffs, and can competently check defensively. In his last playoff appearance, he produced 13 points in 14 games. He’s an elite competitor who scratched and clawed his way to the league, and he has a dirty streak many fans seem unaware of (This entire sequence screams bad intentions, for example).
While Gourde’s production has trended down in Seattle, he has been used in a checking role with a low offensive-zone start percentage while playing largely with Brandon Tanev and Tye Kartye (not exactly high-producing linemates). Over his entire career, Gourde’s never completed a season where he has been below water in corsi or expected goals at five-on-five. He plays the right way and does the right things on a shift-by-shift basis.
When I think of a center with speed who is good defensively and competent enough offensively to perhaps slot alongside Nylander and bump down Tavares, Gourde is again the first player who comes to mind. I don’t know if it would work for certain, but on paper, it makes sense to me.
However, there are three hurdles to clear.
The first is Gourde’s $5.16 million salary, which is a high number to absorb. Seattle would either need to take salary back and/or retain some to make it work.
The second is Gourde’s health situation, as he’s missed time on three separate occasions and is currently out of the lineup. He has played 81 and 80 games in the last two seasons, so I tend to err on the side of calling it bad luck, but it’s noteworthy.
The third is the acquisition cost for a rental. If the asking price is similar to the Alex Wennberg last season (a second and a conditional fourth), it would intrigue me. If the bidding reaches Adam Henrique-for-a-first-round-pick territory, the Leafs don’t even have the pick to offer.
A few players I’m keeping an eye on*
*These are not players I’m sold on, which is why they’re listed here
Jamie Oleksiak
While he hasn’t appeared on any trade boards yet, Elliotte Friedman has mentioned Oleksiak’s name. Here are his average ice-time figures this season by month:
- October: 20:50
- November: 19:04
- December: 18:32
- January: 17:44
The Kraken really like Ryker Evans (who needs a new contract after this season) and they have recently signed or extended their other three top-four defensemen. It feels like Oleksiak is the odd man out of the top four; do they really want to pay him $4.6 million through next season to play on their third pairing?
It’s an attractive cap hit if the acquiring team thinks Oleksiak is a top-four defenseman locked in at his current number for 1.5 seasons. Whether he is a legitimate top-four defenseman is a fair question to ask, though.
Oleksiak is massive at 6’7, and even though he’s a lefty, he has played both sides before. He’ll chip in some offense at five-on-five (he already has four goals and 11 points in 48 games), and he’s unafraid of lugging the puck up ice once he has a head of steam going.
I wish he were right-handed, and given he’s under contract for another season, I imagine the price would be expensive. I’m not sure Oleksiak can move the puck well enough or form a pairing with Rielly, and ideally, the Leafs would keep McCabe and Tanev together.
Mario Ferraro
Ferraro’s name was out there last season, and it has popped up again this season. He’s only 26 and makes $3.25 million through next season, which is a great contract and one the Leafs can fit into their cap books.
Like Oleksiak, Ferraro is left-handed and has played on the right at times, but the difference is the age. Ferraro would immediately become one of the Leafs’ youngest defensemen, and nobody is banging on the door in Toronto’s pipeline to become a minute-eater anytime soon. Adding a mid-20s defenseman makes a lot of sense for the longevity of the unit.
However, it is difficult to discern just how good Ferraro is. He has generally been buried in San Jose in both responsibilities and linemates. They are not a good team, and it’s hard for defensive defensemen to look good in their environment. He plays with a lot of courage in terms of blocking shots and getting involved physically, but he needs to get the puck going the other way more often. It’s a pro-scouting question to sort out how much of those results are due to Ferraro versus his environment.
Will Borgen
One of the only right-handed defensemen known to be available right now, Borgen is only 28 and a pending UFA.
He’s 6’3 and has recorded 25 and 20-point seasons in the past few years, so he can move the puck a little bit. However, he’s never played real top-four minutes in a season, and he hasn’t been too impressive this season, even after getting traded to the Rangers and paired with K’Andre Miller.
So far, Borgen looks more like a marginal upgrade for the Leafs among their current mix. That isn’t nothing, but depending on the price, it may also not be worth it.
