Happy holidays and a Happy New Year to all of our readers!
Let’s jump right into it this week with an extended notes edition of the Leafs Notebook.
Notes
– When the Leafs hired Craig Berube and Lane Lambert over the summer, I was really curious about the implications for the fourth line and bottom six in general. It was generally an afterthought under Sheldon Keefe; during his tenure, I can’t say the team had a fourth line of consequence at any point.
Lambert was an assistant with the Islanders when they ran their famous “identity line,” which was used as an energy and checking unit. They often started games for the Islanders and were trusted to set the proverbial tone.
When St. Louis won the Cup under Berube, their 10th, 11th, and 12th forwards in the Cup run averaged 12:28, 12:20, and 11:58 per game. In this era, the Leafs haven’t deployed a fourth line they could contemplate playing for 12 minutes consistently in the playoffs.
– So far, though, they haven’t really been able to put together any sort of needle-moving fourth line on a consistent basis. Part of that is due to injury, as David Kampf and Connor Dewar have both missed time. Steven Lorentz has become a mainstay; recently, Lorentz on the fourth line with Dewar alongside one of Holmberg/Kampf has become the closest thing to a fourth line capable of stringing together strong shifts and games. However, the trio has no scoring pop, so they need to be able to turn games physically while remaining stout defensively.
– When the Leafs traded for Dewar last year, he was shooting a sky-high 17.5 percent, which has harshly returned to reality since he became a Leaf. Dewar has just one goal on 41 shots in 36 games as a Leaf, and he has added five assists to go with it. They acquired him partly to help with the penalty kill, especially last season when it was terrible. He has been a good penalty killer – and he is a good checker – but he needs to chip in a little something on the other end of the ice, too. Just one assist in 19 games is clearly too low.
– Against Washington, we noted in the Game in 10 that the Leafs completely sagged off the Capitals defensemen in-zone before Jakob Chychrun scored. In the game before against Detroit, Simon Edvinsson scored with time and space at the point. A few games previous, Isaiah George scored his first goal from the point. In the game in Buffalo, two Sabres defensemen scored, plus a disallowed goal.
We know that the Leafs like to pack the slot defensively and make it difficult to get to the inside. However, there is a difference between packing the house and allowing NHL defensemen to tee off regularly with time and space. It’s too easy when they aren’t even pushing past the top of the circles.
– Conversely, if the Leafs don’t have a defenseman score a goal in their next game, they will go the entire month of December without a defenseman scoring one. They also don’t have a single point from the defense on the power play in the month of December. It’s hard to believe.
Morgan Rielly is pacing for his least productive season in eight years. For Oliver Ekman-Larsson, it would be his worst mark in 13 years. Jake McCabe scored eight goals last season and has yet to score one through 32 games. They need everyone to pick up the slack with Matthews out, including the defense.
– The team is getting some secondary scoring from Max Domi and Nick Robertson, who each have seven points in 10 games in December. Both were due to bounce back, and Robertson is playing to a 16-goal pace, while Domi is tracking for 37 points – much closer to expectations.
– In the eight games since Anthony Stolarz’s injury, the Leafs are 4-4-0. It doesn’t help that they’ve had three sets of back-to-backs in those eight games (which is ridiculous). It also doesn’t help that they are 27th in five-on-five save percentage across three goalies. They’ve had two quality performances in this stretch – both from Joseph Woll, against Dallas and Detroit.
Quotes
“We did a lot of good things, no doubt, and could’ve won the hockey game. But looking at it from the bigger picture, I think we have a little bit more.
“I think we can be a little more consistent. We’ve been a little more on the wrong side of it in the last four or five games. It was a good effort [in Detroit], and there were more good things today, but we have to be a little bit more consistent throughout the 60 minutes, especially against good hockey teams, to be able to build our game and put ourselves in good positions to have leads, control the game, and get the result that we want.
Our execution can be a little bit better, and our pace can be a little bit better. It is a long year. It is a grind. We have to continue to work through it.”
– John Tavares
The Leafs have lost three of their last four games, and some of their five-on-five tendencies have started to bite them a bit.
At the beginning of December, the hope was that they would start trending in the right direction at even strength with Matthews returning. Matthews returned but clearly wasn’t himself, and now he’s out again.
They are 22nd in shot attempt share in December and 20th in expected goals, although they move up to 14th in five-on-five goals percentage (32-29 overall). They are trending up from before, but they need to continue to improve overall and do a better job of controlling games.
“You are going to have to work your way through the forecheck pressure because you know they are going to put a ton of pucks in behind you. It may seem like an easy accomplishment to just break the forecheck pressure, but when they do it time and time and time again, eventually, they are hoping you crack one or two times. We have to stay consistent with our breakout structure, support it, and find ways to advance out of our zone.
The other thing, which is maybe a little bit to do with the moves that they made with adding OEL and Tanev: They defend the interior of the rink as well as anybody. Everyone talks about the goalies and how they’re having great years, but a lot of it is them protecting the inside of the rink. It is so hard to get in there with A) people and B) to get pucks delivered in there.
They really push you to have to earn your offense against them at five-on-five.”
– Spencer Carbery on matching up against the Leafs this season
The Leafs do an excellent job of defending the middle of the ice, and it keeps them in many games. Even when losing the possession battle, they give up very little in terms of quality chances, and they fill lanes really well, making it hard to get the puck inside. The Leafs are in the top 10 in blocked shots and blocked shots per 60 minutes. This structure, though, will be tested if they continue to receive spotty goaltending.
“Willy knows he can stay out for the full power play. At that point, I would have to look at the tape and look at why he didn’t come off and what the situation was at the time, but he was obviously trying to score.”
– Craig Berube after William Nylander’s 4+ minute shift vs. the Jets
The Leafs still haven’t scored a single second unit power-play goal with William Nylander staying on the ice, and in many cases, he’s getting rewarded with extra ice time there.
There were power plays against Detroit and Washington on back-to-back nights where Nylander was directly responsible for losing possession for a clearance the other way. Everybody else left the ice while Nylander stayed on, and the second unit still produced nothing.
When Berube was hired, there was lots of talk about accountability, but Nylander can apparently do whatever he wants when he is on the power play without repercussions.
Tweets of the Week
Bobby McMann now scoring at a 28-goal pace over 82 games. Ridiculous value for his $1.35 million cap hit if he can keep it up.
— Joshua Kloke (@joshuakloke) December 29, 2024
Bobby McMann‘s contract has turned into one of the best on the team, an important development for a Leafs team with four players making at least $10.9 million. Rather quietly, he has eight points in eight games (four goals) in December.
Leafs John Tavares is enjoying a resurgent season pic.twitter.com/MXtHNOqLec
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) December 28, 2024
Particularly impressive: With Matthews out of the lineup, they have asked John Tavares to line up head-to-head against the opponent’s best players in the top matchups. Tavares is up 29-13 in goals at five-on-five, which is tracking to be the best differential of his career by percentage.
Given the fit between both sides, and value, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the @MapleLeafs and D Myers gaining ground on a contract extension. #LeafsForever #HockeyX pic.twitter.com/rggZP6YV0n
— Kevin Weekes (@KevinWeekes) December 29, 2024
Unless this is for a fully buriable amount ($1.15 million or under), I’m not sure what the rush would be. The Leafs still have Matt Benning under contract next season, and he’s already impacting their cap books. Marshall Rifai was signed to a two-year contract extension that will kick in next year, too (it is fully buriable). All of Tanev, McCabe, Rielly, OEL, and Benoit are under contract. Conor Timmins is under control as an RFA.
Philippe Myers has been a serviceable player, and elements of his game are easy to like (namely, his size and physicality). You can also never have enough defensemen who can take a shift in the league. But the Leafs lack quality options to play up the lineup more than anything, so it would need to be a really cheap deal to make sense.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. I understand the current lines if Auston Matthews’ return is imminent. There are three that make sense, and it would be easy to insert Matthews where Pontus Holmberg is currently placeholding. But if Matthews is not about to return any day now, I don’t get it.
In the Leafs’ two games out of the break, Holmberg has been fifth and sixth amongst Leafs forwards in time on ice per game, and he’s not even one of their nine best forwards, if we’re honest. This is what happens, though, when he plays up the lineup in a spot alongside a top player like Nylander; he is going to see more ice time than he should, and now we’re regularly watching Holmberg play more minutes than Max Domi and Bobby McMann, even though they are clearly better hockey players.
If Matthews isn’t about to return, the Leafs need to shake up these lines, as it is unsustainable. It’s not a knock on Holmberg, who is a depth player with some versatility, but they can’t have a player playing at a 15-point pace over 82 games regularly playing top-six minutes as the 2C.
2. If Matthews remains out and the team really has no idea when he’ll be back, I’d keep the first and fourth lines as is but move up McMann and Domi. McMann is putting together a strong season and is playing well, while Domi is a proven offensive contributor (which Holmberg is not). They need to give Nylander something to work with.
This leaves a Knies-Holmberg-Robertson trio as the third line, which was a line combination at one point last season and managed to chip in some offense (you may recall a really strong game against Florida late in the season from this trio). If Knies gets rolling, they should perform well in third-line matchups. If Knies doesn’t turn it around, well…
3. I think I would take Matthew Knies off the penalty kill. He has been fine on it, but he’s playing too much and has really struggled since returning from injury. We talked last week about how his production and physicality have been way down since returning, and the theme has continued after the break. He’s averaged 1:24 shorthanded since returning and 18:37 overall, which is too much for a player hesitant to make contact.
Knies is a really good player when he is a wrecking ball. He is not a particularly effective player when he’s not fully embracing the physical parts of the game. I’d shave his minutes elsewhere, try to keep his legs fresher, and encourage him to get back to basics.
The priority is Knies making an impact at five-on-five. Dewar and Lorentz are perfectly good second PK unit players. The Leafs really need Knies to step up with Matthews in limbo, and so far, he has been more part of the problem than the solution.
4. I know calling up Fraser Minten is tempting, but I would hold off as long as possible. He started hot with the Leafs but quickly fizzed out and was routinely hemmed in his own end. He wasn’t ready to be a regular NHLer night in and night out. He has since gone down to the AHL, played in five games, and recorded two points. One goal was to make it 3-0; the other was an empty netter.
The Leafs need to do what’s best for Minten’s development, and right now, it’s clearly top-line, all-situations minutes in the AHL, not struggling in ~12 minutes per night in the NHL.
5. With the Leafs facing a run of four games in six days coming up (with yet another weekend back-to-back in days five and six), I’d be giving Joseph Woll both the starts on Tuesday and Thursday, and depending on how he fares, likely Saturday at home against the Boston Bruins.
That is a true starter’s workload, and asking Woll to play every other day should not be a big ask. It would position him to take the same Tuesday-Thursday-Saturday workload the following week. Anthony Stolarz is out; Woll needs to step up, and none of the question marks concern his talent.
