The reasons behind the Maple Leafs’ March struggles, and the adjustments needed ahead of the playoffs

Well, the Maple Leafs’ annual March dip has officially arrived.

The team trudging through a stretch of mediocre hockey each March has become an annual tradition of sorts with this core.

• March 2022: 8-5-1 (three-game win streak to end the month)
• March 2023: 7-6-1
• March 2024: 8-6-0 (two-game win streak to end the month)

That’s a lot of .500 hockey in March, which is better than their current 2-4-1 run of play in March 2025, but with eight games remaining this month, there is still plenty of time for this to change, for better or worse.

It’s natural for teams to go through slumps during a season—every team does—but for the Leafs, it’s concerning that this generally tends to happen at this exact time every year and then carries through into their playoff performances and early exits.

That means it’s crucial to properly identify and work through these issues now so that they don’t continue forward with their current play. Some heroics by star players to end the losing streak while masking the issues are far less important than addressing the root problems to prepare for the playoffs properly.

A few things stand out, so let’s go through them.

The performance of key players

The first and easiest ones to talk about — they don’t require much analysis of any kind — are the performances of some key individuals.

We have spoken about Auston Matthews a ton lately — I don’t want to belabour it — but he is not among the top 45 goal-scorers in the league in total goals (admittedly, he has missed time), and this is a player who should be the best goal scorer in the league. His 55.56 goals-for percentage would be his worst mark since six seasons ago. He is capable of so much more.

Lately, we could say the same thing about Mitch Marner. Since February 1, he has 12 points in 14 games. That’s not bad by any means, but Marner has been a 1.22+ points per game player for years, so dropping to .85 points per game for an extended stretch is notable and will be felt.

Maybe it’s 4 Nations fatigue, maybe it’s general road fatigue from their travel of late, maybe it’s the contract stuff, or maybe it’s a combination of all of it. Only the players themselves can speak to this credibly. But if they do some soul-searching and are honest with themselves, both Matthews and Marner are capable of a lot more, and the team will need them to be a lot better if they are going to achieve what they want to achieve this season.

The same can be said for the Leafs‘ goaltending, although, in fairness, they aren’t superstars like the two Leafs forwards mentioned above. The Leafs have received negative goals saved above expected in six of their last seven games.

At one point in the season, Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll were among the top 10 goalies in that mark. Now, neither is in the top 10. Both their save percentages are dipping, and since February 1, the Leafs are 17th in team save percentage. Before then, the team was sixth in the category.

That is a huge drop-off, and while it’s probably unrealistic to think they would rank sixth all year, they are more talented than 17th, so after a period of regression, they need to settle down, smooth it out, and get back on track.

The Penalty Kill

The Leafs’ recent slide in form isn’t just about a few players. There are team-level and structural issues the whole group and coaching staff will need to sort through.

Since February 1, the Leafs’ penalty kill ranks 27th. If we look at it since the 4 Nations break, it has been even worse (30th). They have given up at least one power-play goal in six of their past seven games. In their past two games, the game winners have come on the power play as well. They are 21st in expected goals against per 60 minutes since February 1 and 26th in shot attempts given up. One can argue they’ve been a tad unlucky during this stretch, but it’s still firmly been a bottom-10 unit.

Some of it is naturally due to Chris Tanev’s absence for some time and the introduction of new penalty killers (Calle Jarnkrok, Scott Laughton, and Brandon Carlo). That said, systemically, the PK is not aggressive enough, coupled with basic errors.

Whether it’s Simon Benoit defending a backdoor play that didn’t exist instead of Sam Bennett right in front of him or Jake McCabe somehow blowing the zone on a penalty kill, creating a down-low 2v1, those are just absolute gifts for opposing teams already up a man.

In the neutral zone, the Leafs aren’t breaking up a thing. Teams are slicing right through and gaining the zone with ease, and when NHL power plays can fully set up, they will cause problems. The best penalty-killing teams don’t allow the opposition to easily set the zone. There needs to be more of a press through the neutral zone, and the Leafs’ defensemen actually have to defend the blue line. Right now, there is too much backing up.

Look how easy it is for Ottawa to set up below.

Giroux swings from his own zone, and no Leaf swings with him, so he skates right up the ice untouched. When he approaches the blue line, Matthew Knies is one of three Leafs defending the line, but he’s already standing a foot inside the line. Standing outside the line and forcing offsides is actually disruptive.

Giroux easily slices through, makes one pass to the wall, and Ottawa passes it around, leading to an offensive-zone faceoff that they then score off of. It is just one example in the neutral zone, but it’s happening regularly right now. Opposing power plays are gaining the zone with ease.

Five-on-Five Offense

At five-on-five, teams are checking the Leafs tough right now, and the Leafs are not doing a good job of managing it, as Craig Berube alludes to below.

“In the last handful of games, we have gotten away from our identity a little bit in terms of putting pucks in deep, forechecking, and going to work. We are trying to get that dialed back in here and play that north-south game.”

After losing to the Senators, Berube repeated a similar message:

“I didn’t find that we wanted to play our game early enough in this game. We wanted to bring pucks back, play slow, and try to go through them. We had some chances off the rush — I get all that — but you don’t build your game.

In the third period, we played more north, won more battles, showed more urgency, and it was a different period. It is about us getting together and putting 60 minutes together of that.”

Rewatching the Florida game as an example, the forecheck was reasonably effective. In the Ottawa game—which I was in the arena for—there were far too many dump-ins that never had a chance to be recovered because they were flipped to the wrong side or someone wasn’t skating. However, there’s also a lot of talk about forechecking and not nearly enough about what they do once they retrieve it in the offensive zone.

The Leafs are disjointed offensively and aren’t generating enough offensively as a result. According to NHL Edge data, they spend less time in the offensive zone than the league average and are tied for 17th in shots per game. Since February 1, it’s even worse; they are tied for 21st with two other teams. They have far too much talent for this to be the case, but in the offensive zone, they don’t appear to have much of a plan.

The puck cycles up to the point, and nobody is in front half the time when the defenseman receives it. What is he going to do at that point? There is no shooting threat without traffic. We regularly see forwards far side rim the puck thinking someone is there when they are not. They don’t consistently generate traffic in front and throw enough shots to the net, which goes hand in hand. There needs to be traffic to shoot and players in front who are digging and winning rebounds when shots arrive.

The more the Leafs can forecheck and win rebounds, the more they can control play and defend less. That has to be the goal, but their play in the zone has been really lacking. It’s a lot of one-and-done, and they are seemingly only dangerous in the offensive zone when Nylander is lapping it right now.

It doesn’t require talent to drive the net — just a willingness and a work ethic — but when was the Leafs’ last grind-it-out, dirty goal at five-on-five? I quickly scanned through their goals until I found one I’d characterize as an in-zone shot and rebound — it was January 5 against the Flyers, courtesy of Matthew Knies, 26 games ago.

Can nobody on the team get to the net and score a rebound goal? It’s either top skill players scoring off skilled plays, Robertson and McMann shooting from a distance or off the rush, some Pontus Holmberg empty-netters, and that’s about it. They need to be able to manufacture greasy offense. It’s *the* problem every single playoff.

It’s good this is happening now, to some degree. As we said, slumps are going to happen. Florida spent nearly half this NHL season playing .500 hockey, going 18-16-2 for a stretch. They just lost back-to-back games in regulation and are up four on the Leafs as the Leafs have two games in hand (plus the Leafs play Florida twice more). Tampa is tied with the Leafs, and the two teams play once more.

The Leafs are still in complete control of their fate, but they must take the correct lessons from this stretch of play and learn from them, or it will be the same old story once the playoffs start