In the biggest game of the regular season (so far), the Maple Leafs enter this four-point matchup against the Panthers with a two-point lead in the Atlantic Division race (7:30 p.m. EST, Sportsnet).
There is one more matchup between these two teams to come, but being four points ahead with seven games to go is a major difference compared to being tied on points with seven to play. To accomplish that four-point cushion, the Leafs will need to beat the Panthers in regulation, something they’ve done just once in the last six meetings. With the Panthers at the end of a three-in-four (second half of a back-to-back) and without some key pieces due to injury/suspension, this is a golden opportunity for the fully-healthy and rested Leafs, one they really need to take advantage of.
The Leafs will be looking for a few areas of improvement over their tight-checking 3-2 loss to Florida in Toronto in mid-March. They’ll need a much better effort on special teams, where the PK conceded twice while the PP went 0-for-3. The Leafs‘ PK will need to be cleaner/stiffer at their net front as Sam Bennett beat them twice on in-tight plays to the net; Jake McCabe got beat at the back post for one of them, and Simon Benoit was guarding a ghost at the back post instead of the main in front on a pass to the top of the crease from below the goal line. There was also a bad blown clearance opportunity by Scott Laughton just prior to the second Florida power-play goal.
It was a reasonably solid effort at five-on-five as the Leafs edged the Panthers on scoring chances and high-danger chances and tied in shots on goal at five-on-five. However, in the top matchup, the Leafs’ top line put just three shots on goal at five-on-five over their ~10 minutes against Barkov (vs. five against) while playing primarily with Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev pairing. The big guns will need to create more than the .11 xGF they generated inside that matchup. A reason for optimism at five-on-five is that the Leafs, at the time, did not have their second line of McMann-Tavares-Nylander rolling as it is currently, but the Panthers also now have Brad Marchand in the lineup on their second line with Bennett.
Game Day Quotes
Craig Berube on the keys to tightening it up on the PK after the last meeting vs. Florida:
We allowed two goals right at our net front. We have to make sure we are doing a better job. Bennett got both of them. We have to be stronger around there and recognize the situation a little bit better around the net.
They shoot pucks on their PP from the top and the flanks, but they do run a lot of low plays around the net. They got us twice.
Berube on the Panthers’ OT loss to Montreal last night:
It was a tight game. Montreal pushed hard, too. It is a bounce here or there.
It’s similar to our last game here. It was a very low-event game at five-on-five. Special teams were the difference. It is just a bounce here or there.
They’re tight games. There is not a lot of room out there.
Berube on the keys to taking advantage of the Panthers’ tired situation:
There are so many back-to-back games nowadays. You can catch a team on a back-to-back where you can maybe take advantage of them, but a lot of the time, they are ready to go. Sometimes, some teams come in on a back-to-back and actually play a better game the second night.
They are going to be good tonight. It will be a tight game. It will be a tough game. We want to get to our game as quickly as possible. Coming off the long road trip and everything, we have to have some energy tonight. There should be.
We have to understand that we have to be patient with our game and not get frustrated. They check well. There is not a lot of room out there. We can’t get impatient with the puck. We can’t get frustrated. Just stick with it.
Bobby McMann on facing a line with both Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand on it:
It is an interesting line. They are both really good players. They play hard and in your face. For us, it is about initiating and making sure we are taking it to them rather than letting them dictate anything. We need to make sure we are the ones initiating.
Brandon Carlo on lining up against former Bruins teammate Marchand:
It will be fun. I’ve had a lot of battles with him in practice. We tried to go against each other in drills to have that compete level in practice. It will be a different level within the game.
I am looking forward to the challenge. It will be funny to see him across the hashmark, for sure.
It’ll be interesting to see what kind of dirt he has on me (when chirping) tonight… I am sure I will hear something.
Carlo on whether he is familiar with all of the tricks up Marchand’s sleeve by this point:
Not all of them. He is still a little bit of a mystery at times, but overall, I know him pretty well. I don’t think anything he will say or do will surprise me too much.
Chris Tanev on the keys to defending a Panthers team that attacks the net so well:
Try to get our box outs, but if we can’t, front and block shots. Hopefully, we are able to break pucks out and move pucks so that we are not in our end as much as they want to be in our end.
Tanev on whether he is watching games around the league at this time of year:
I am. I enjoy watching games. Maybe when I was in my mid-to-late 20s, I was like, “I am too cool to watch games,” but now I watch a ton. You are always seeing what other teams are doing, how they are playing, and know what to expect. A lot of good players play every night. If you have the ability to learn a little thing here or there, it can go a long way.
Paul Maurice on how upset he was about the team giving up a late tying goal and losing to Montreal in OT:
Not even a little bit. We gave up three shots in the third period with a 2-1 lead. It was nearly perfect. It was a bad break that won’t happen again. I won’t think about the way this game ended again.
Head-to-Head Stats: Maple Leafs (45-25-4) vs. Panthers (44-26-4)
In the 2024-25 regular season statistics, Toronto holds the advantage in three out of five offensive categories, but Florida holds the advantage in four out of five defensive categories.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#23 Matthew Knies — #34 Auston Matthews — #16 Mitch Marner
#74 Bobby McMann — #91 John Tavares — #88 William Nylander
#24 Scott Laughton — #11 Max Domi — #19 Calle Jarnkrok
#29 Pontus Holmberg — #64 David Kampf — #18 Steven Lorentz
Defensemen
#22 Jake McCabe — #8 Chris Tanev
#44 Morgan Rielly — #25 Brandon Carlo
#2 Simon Benoit — #95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Goaltenders
Starter: #41 Anthony Stolarz
#60 Joseph Woll
Extras: Nick Robertson, Philippe Myers
Injured (LTIR): Jani Hakanpää, Max Pacioretty
Florida Panthers Projected Lines
Forwards
#27 Eetu Luostarinen — #15 Anton Lundell — #13 Sam Reinhart
#23 Carter Verhaeghe — #9 Sam Bennett — #63 Brad Marchand
#25 Mackie Samoskevich — 17 Evan Rodrigues — #70 Jesper Boqvist
#10 AJ Greer — #92 Thomas Nosek — #12 Jonah Gadjovich
Defensemen
#42 Gustav Forsling — #3 Seth Jones
#77 Niko Mikkola — #88 Nate Schmidt
#26 Uvis Balinskis — #6 Jaycob Magna
Goaltenders
Starter: #72 Sergei Bobrovsky
#41 Vitek Vanecek
Injured/Out: Sasha Barkov, Aaron Ekblad, Dmitry Kulikov, Matthew Tkachuk, Nico Sturm
