Series Breakdown: The key five-on-five battles to watch in the Leafs vs. Panthers matchup

While it’s easy to get caught up in all the shenanigans Florida will bring to a series, it’s important to note the tangible reasons for their success over the past few years. They are a matchup nightmare.

Heading into Game 1, the Panthers appear to be rolling out the following lineup:

Panthers Game 1 Lineup Projection

Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart
Rodrigues – Bennett – Tkachuk
Luostarinen – Lundell – Marchand
Greer – Sturm – Boqvist
Samoskevich

Forsling – Jones
Mikkola – Kulikov
Balinskis – Schmidt
Ekblad

Maple Leafs Game 1 Lineup Projection

Knies – Matthews – Marner
Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander
Lorentz – Laughton – Jarnkrok
McMann – Holmberg – Domi
Robertson, Kampf

McCabe – Tanev
Rielly – Carlo
Benoit – OEL
Myers

A lot of these lines and players will be familiar to fans at this point, as will the Leafs’ lines. I have bolded a few players for both teams who wouldn’t surprise me if they were flipped/interchangeable. The Panthers are also sitting Mackie Samoskevich, who will definitely be dressing at some point. They did play him on the second line for a few games in the first round, bumping down Evan Rodrigues to the fourth line.

Top Line vs. Top Line

The Panthers have one of the best two-way top lines in the league, spearheaded by Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, who are both Selke finalists this season. They are a suffocating unit to play against, giving up just 10 goals against at five-on-five during the regular season in over 400 minutes together and controlling over 60 percent of shot attempts and expected goals. They grind their opposition down and allow zero easy offense. If you do break through them, you have to deal with Sergei Bobrovsky. 

By comparison, the Leafs’ top line was on for 23 goals against in just under 600 minutes together. They got scored on at a much higher rate. On the flipside, the Leafs’ top line scored 36 goals this season, compared to just 15 for the Barkov line.

That is a wrinkle to tangle with for the Leafs. The Panthers are more than happy to match Barkov against Matthews’ line and blank those minutes. If the Barkov unit doesn’t produce much of anything at five-on-five, they won’t care. They know it would be devastating for the Leafs if their top line is blanked. 

I don’t think the Leafs’ play is to avoid this matchup. They will have to fight through it and find a way. One, if the big dogs don’t deliver, this is all pointless anyway. Two, they can produce on the power play. Three, if the Leafs move Matthews away from Barkov, what is the domino effect? 

The only alternative that makes any sense is matching Matthews against Sam Bennett and thus Barkov against John Tavares. If the Bennett line is crushing the second-line matchup, a change would have to be considered, but until then, I’m not sure the Leafs would want Barkov-Reinhart against the Tavares line; they are Florida’s two leading scorers still, and I think they’d produce a lot more against the Leafs’ second line. It would make more sense to go head-to-head at the top and look for opportunities (icings, changes on the fly, etc.) to sneak the top line out against the Panthers’ fourth line.

The Panthers’ Second Line/The Tkachuk Question Mark

This brings us to the Panthers’ second unit, which is a bit of a difficult one to sort through. 

Both Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk missed games down the stretch of the regular season. Tkachuk didn’t play after the Four Nations tournament, and both players’ minutes were low in the first round. Tkachuk averaged just 13:42 per game against Tampa, and while Paul Maurice said he stopped monitoring his minutes after Game 2, he played just 10:33 in their series-deciding Game 5. He has missed both of their practices leading into this series. He is clearly not fully healthy.

Bennett is seemingly in a much better place. He averaged 15:48 against Tampa, including two games over 17 minutes and one at 16:59. He’s not missing practice time like Tkachuk is.

Together, Bennett and Tkachuk only outscored opponents 26-24 this season. By comparison, Tavares-Nylander outscored opponents a whopping 37-22. Where Bennett and Tkachuk make their money, though, is on the forecheck. Tavares and Nylander controlled just 45 percent of shot attempts together, while Bennett and Tkachuk were at 56 percent. We can already picture how this might play out in terms of the Panthers’ cycling and neutering of the Leafs’ second unit by forcing them to defend. 

Again, there is the unknown of how healthy and effective Tkachuk will be. Four of his five points against Tampa came on the power play, and he played limited minutes. If this continues to be the case, do the Leafs even roll this matchup? They could consider the Scott Laughton checking line against them, making for a grind-on-grind at that point. It would pit the Leafs’ best play-driving line in the first round (Laughton) against the Panthers’ most aggressive forechecking line.

In Game 1 in 2023, the Leafs matched their Tavares-Marner line against this Tkachuk and Bennett line, and they were promptly dominated. Sheldon Keefe immediately switched the matchup. They could be an X-factor for the Panthers, or they could continue to labour due to injury. If you’re the Leafs, you hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

The Panthers’ vaunted third line

If Florida’s second line is hobbled, it’s not like it gets too much easier. The Panthers own arguably the best third line in the playoffs.

Anton Lundell is perhaps the best 3C in the NHL. He produced 17 points in 24 playoff games last playoff and already has five in five this spring, but his biggest strength is his checking ability. He’s as good a defensive 3C as there is in the league, and with one of the best two-way centers at 1C in front of him, Lundell gives Maurice all sorts of matchup options to play with. 

In April, when the Leafs faced the Panthers without Barkov, Lundell went head-to-head against Matthews and helped keep the Leafs’ top line scoreless. Lundell’s line won the zone-time battle, out-attempting Matthews 14-8 at five-on-five, although Matthews got the better of Lundell on one play, leading to a prime scoring chance.

Now, Lundell has Brad Marchand on his line, and Marchand can still play. On the other side is Eetu Luostarinen; he doesn’t receive much attention on this team, but when the Panthers lost their only playoff series in the past few years to Vegas, he was absent due to injury – a significant loss. He is another quality checking winger with some offensive ability. Standing a lanky 6’3, he is very disruptive as a defender. 

The Panthers could gladly match their third line against the Tavares line, although in the first round, Bennett still took on the Cirelli matchup rather than Lundell. That could be a hint as to how Maurice will approach the matchups in this series.

The Matchup Game

On home ice, the matchup game will be up to the Leafs’ discretion.

They could roll it straight up as L1 vs. L1, L2 vs. L2, L3 vs. L3, and L4 vs. L4. Their top two lines are similar in that they are strong two-way units overall, led by center-right winger combinations. The Leafs’ unit scores more, but the Panthers’ unit defends better. 

The Panthers’ second line dominates on the forecheck, but the Leafs’ second line counterattacks extremely well and puts the puck in the net, led by the NHL’s second-leading goal scorer this season. The Leafs could fear that this matchup (a forecheck line vs. an offense line) will lead to too much time in their own end and counter with a line that’s been better at getting the puck out and making their opponents grind for offense (the Laughton line). That would leave a scoring line vs. a checking line, which has some potential for the Leafs. 

I’d bet we see a lot of L2 vs. L2 to start, but especially with the question marks about Tkachuk’s health and form, there is a lot to consider.

The one matchup that does flash a real potential advantage for the Leafs at first blush is the battle of the fourth lines. The Leafs have some legitimate offensive punch with 20-goal scorer Bobby McMann and Max Domi, who has been a productive NHLer for his whole career. The Panthers currently run a Greer-Sturm-Boqvist line that played six minutes together against Tampa and was scored on in that time. At best, it’s an energy line, one that the Leafs need to exploit. 

The Leafs scored once on the Senators’ fourth line – in the first game, when Matthew Highmore played on it and tipped a puck into his own net. Nick Cousins then entered the lineup, and Gaudette and Cousins never conceded a goal afterward. Against a much better Panthers team, the Leafs will need to cash in against the Sturm fourth line.

The Leafs’ fourth line scored a series-winning goal when Pacioretty snapped home a Domi pass, a switch to keep in mind as part of the five-on-five matchups. 

Also of note: In two of the past three games, McMann ended up on the Leafs’ second line. Game 6 was easily his best of the series, as he flew around the ice, got in on the forecheck, and created zone time. He led the team in hits in the series. When games tightened up down the stretch against the Senators — whether the team was winning or losing — McMann moved up. While Craig Berube appears to be starting Game 1 with Pacioretty in the second-line left-wing spot, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see McMann move up again.

As for Pacioretty, he was really good in his first game, struggled the next two, and then produced a goal and an assist in his fourth game. He hadn’t played in over two months before then, so the glass-half-full take is that he has his feet wet now and will start to roll. 

On defense, the Panthers possess a rock-solid top four of Forsling-Ekblad (Ekblad will miss Game 1), Mikkola-Jones, and Schmidt-Kulikov. It’s a massive defense full of veteran experience and pedigree. The Leafs also own a big defense, and we know they will trot out McCabe-Tanev, Rielly-Carlo, and Benoit-OEL.

The Panthers will match the Forsling pair against the Matthews line as much as humanly possible. The Leafs could go in a few directions with their matchup pairing. As mentioned, the Barkov-Reinhart line doesn’t score a ton. The Leafs could hedge it and run Rielly-Carlo with the Matthews line. That would leave the McCabe-Tanev duo to match against the Bennett line, whether it’s Tavares or Laughton in front of them (likely both), and the Benoit-OEL pairing to face the Lundell line. 

The Leafs will feel out the matchups and what’s working for the Panthers, who own three very good lines. None of them are high-end offensive units on the surface, but all of them can hurt you, and that’s the strength of their team. They can blank two lines and beat you with a third line of their choosing. The Leafs feel good about all three of their defense pairings, but the big question concerns which way the forward matchups break, which will likely shake up the defense matchups below it. 

Other Five-on-Five Play Considerations

–  Nobody has given up more breakaways than the Florida Panthers over the past two years. They are extremely aggressive in the neutral zone, and it generally helps them control play by creating a lot of turnovers and shoving them down their opponent’s throat. But they get burned a reasonable amount because of it, including against the Leafs in April. The Leafs were ripping stretch passes all series against the Senators and will likely look to continue this. However, they also need to ensure they regularly gain the center line and get the puck deep rather than allowing the Panthers’ defense opportunities to jump their wingers and cut off pucks in the middle of the rink.

– The Panthers are the best forechecking team in the league, and over the past three seasons, only the Carolina Hurricanes have possessed the puck more than they have. The Leafs struggled to get through the Panthers’ forecheck this season and had some tough moments against Ottawa (as any team would in any series, to be fair). That means quick outs and races off the glass when necessary, but also not getting too far away from compact breakouts. As noted above, the Panthers are extremely aggressive pinching down walls and committing numbers to loose pucks.

– Reviewing some of the Panthers’ losses (the sweep by the Habs, their loss to Vegas, the sweep by Washington), those opponents had defensemen who could single-handedly evade a forecheck. The Leafs’ defense has to make plays to move the puck up ice. That’s just the reality. You can’t draw this on a board. 

–  Three Leafs lines were among the top 20 in terms of controlling scoring chances in the first round. While they aren’t necessarily strong at controlling play and cycling opponents down with regularity as a team (outside of the Laughton line), they create good looks and give up very little inside. But they can’t be dominated in the possession game and hope to quick strike the Panthers all game. The Matthews goal in Game 3 needs to be a blueprint for L1. They got the puck in deep and won multiple battles, leading to zone time and an eventual goal. 

–  Both net fronts will be a war zone in this one. The Leafs were really good at boxing out against Ottawa, but the Panthers are stronger there. On the flip side, Florida is big and heavy in front of their own net; it will be Matthew Knies’ – amongst others, but led by him – toughest test yet. The Leafs’ defense scored five goals against the Sens and did a good job getting pucks through. Can they continue to do it, with bodies in front? At the other end, can they provide Anthony Stolarz with clean sightlines and win the battles for rebounds?

–  They’re different teams from their 2023 playoff meeting, but it was interesting to revisit how much offense the Leafs gave the Panthers due to immature defending in the five-game series. Verhaeghe and Anthony Duclair scored on clear breakaways. Verhaeghe and Cousins scored on wide-open 3v2s. Reinhart’s overtime wraparound in Game 3 was poor on so many levels. They gave up a lot of easy offense off simple breakdowns, something they have generally limited within their game this season.

The Leafs were eighth in goals against per game this season, while the Panthers were seventh. The Panthers weren’t a juggernaut offensively (granted, Tkachuk missed a lot of time), finishing just 15th in goals per game, while the Leafs ranked seventh. If the Leafs can avoid the freebies against, I’ll be curious to see how Florida responds. The Panthers recorded the fourth-worst winning percentage when trailing after two periods this season; only San Jose, Chicago, and New Jersey were worse.

–  The Panthers also took the second-most offensive zone draws in the league this season, while the Leafs were 30th. The Leafs finished second in the league in faceoff percentage compared to the Panthers in 20th. It might prove not to be much of anything, but I’ll be keeping an eye on it.