It all comes down to this.
After a dominant defensive showing in Game 6 with their backs against the wall, the Toronto Maple Leafs are headed back home for a Game 7 against the Florida Panthers. To some Leafs fans, this was the most obvious, most Leafy outcome possible. Just when you thought it was over, they draw you back in one last time with a final flicker of hope and belief. Does it lead to the seemingly inevitable letdown that so many Maple Leafs fans are fearing? Or will Game 7 finally be the moment that catapults the Leafs into their first conference finals appearance since 2002?
Notable Performances from Game 6
I didn’t write one of these pieces after Game 5 because there were no notable performances. Mostly everyone was terrible, and there were no compelling storylines to break down other than “play better!” After Game 6, it’s the opposite, where nearly every Maple Leaf contributed positively in some form, the sort of team hockey that Craig Berube wants to play and the kind Brad Treliving wanted to build when he talked about the team, rather than the “Core Four.” Everyone was involved, and everyone contributed in their role.
It started with the Core Four members who were maligned the most in recent days, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. They teamed up to find the score-sheet with a five-on-five goal in the third period, which eventually went down as the game-winning goal, opportunistically pouncing on an Aaron Ekblad turnover right around the Florida blue line, allowing Marner to tee up Matthews to finally solve Sergei Bobrovsky for the ice-breaker. This was the highlight of their night offensively, but it wasn’t their only threatening moment; a strong shift in the first period saw Marner set up Matthew Knies for a grade-A all alone in front, but he couldn’t finish around or over Bobrovsky’s outstretched leg.
Knies was only an occasional part of the line as he dealt with an injury arising from a reverse hit behind the net. Knies dropped to rotate in on other lines, with Bobby McMann and Scott Laughton taking his place at different times. The Matthews/Marner line was excellent all night, no matter the identity of the other winger, setting the tone early, creating some chances, and then locking it down defensively. High-danger chances were 4-0 in Toronto’s favour when Matthews/Marner were on the ice at five-on-five in this game, and those two + Laughton ate much of the 5v6 time at the end of the game, getting in shooting lanes and protecting the net. This was the response game the Leafs desperately needed from their Tier A stars.
The second line of John Tavares, William Nylander, and Pontus Holmberg was largely competitive. They also won their minutes pretty decisively, a welcome change from Games 3-4 in Sunrise, when Paul Maurice hunted that line via last change and they were dominated by the Barkov line. They weren’t as dangerous offensively as they could have been — especially Nylander — but they competed hard, and outside of a couple of bad shifts in the second period, they didn’t get caved in. In Game 7, Nylander should take the opportunity to drive the net a little more; he drove the net during four-on-four play and received a pass from Laughton for a near goal, but at five-on-five, he stood out more for circling the net with possession in the offensive zone without driving inside.
Toronto’s checking line of Calle Järnkrok and Steven Lorentz, centered by Laughton, was a textbook example of blocking shots and limiting what could come of OZ time for Florida. The Panthers spent a lot of time in the Leafs’ end when these guys were on the ice at five-on-five, reflected by wide shot attempt differentials, yet actual shots on goal were just 1-1 in Laughton/Järnkrok’s minutes, and scoring chances were 2-1 for Toronto in Lorentz’s minutes. Florida put a lot on net but didn’t get much of anything from it because these players were so sound defensively, in good positions, and committed to the grind of laying their bodies on the line to block shots and clear pucks.
The (sorta) fourth line of Max Domi centering McMann and Max Pacioretty was again out-attempted in its minutes, but they didn’t get scored on, and for the games in Florida where Berube can’t shield them with last change, that’s a win. Oh, and they also scored the icing-on-the-cake goal in the third period. Domi was shockingly dialed in defensively, making two or three plays around his net to disrupt passes and block shots that were potentially developing into Grade-A scoring opportunities. In the third period, he was committed defensively again when he helped chip a puck out of the Leaf end for a rush the other way that McMann and Pacioretty converted beautifully, between the pass and the difficult finish in tight.
This line, no matter its exact iteration, is probably not going to win its minutes against a team like Florida territorially. But if they don’t get scored on and come up with a few big goals as they did in Game 6 (and they did in Game 2, or Game 6 vs. Ottawa), they are doing their job. Domi and Pacioretty haven’t been consistently impactful in the playoffs from a thousand-foot view, but they have shown a clutch gene that the Leafs’ core has often lacked (some dawg in them, if you will). They have risen three or four times now in the playoffs to score a huge goal when it matters late in a game, and a team needs that from its depth every so often to survive in the playoffs. For too many years in the spring, the Leafs never got those types of important depth contributions.
On defense, this was a really strong game for Brandon Carlo and Morgan Rielly. They didn’t have a hand in the goals, but they defended hard, minimized mistakes, and got the puck moving the right way; good things happened while they were on the ice, generally speaking. The other two pairings, Simon Benoit with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev, spent lots of time defending in their own zone, so it’s notable that Carlo and Rielly were able to tilt the ice in Toronto’s favour. When issues arose, they did a good job getting back; Rielly retreated to break up a shot by Eetu Luostarinen after a poor pinch created an odd-man rush opportunity. Carlo was doing the same thing, back-checking like crazy to pursue Barkov, when he was called for a dubious hooking call in the third period.
As for the other defensemen, Benoit deserves a shoutout for laying out Brad Marchand in the defensive zone when Marchand tried to cut to the net, a great moment of Leafs pushback amid a big Florida push in the middle frame. If there is a negative, it’s that both Benoit and OEL took minor penalties, although Benoit’s was also quite soft. Jake McCabe had one ugly turnover that nearly bit the Leafs, but otherwise his pair was quite solid, with Tanev continuing to lap up punishment for his role in defensive zone retrievals and remaining a master at suppressing chances against. McCabe and Tanev were on for ~13.5 minutes at five-on-five in Game 6. Though shot attempts were lopsided in Florida’s favour (15-6 vs. McCabe), the high-danger chances were 2-1 for Toronto. These players defended the net like crazy, as did the entire team.
Which is why Joseph Woll‘s first career playoff shutout didn’t require too many heroics. Woll was really steady but not spectacular, which is ideally what you want from the goalie in a big playoff game. The Leafs did not ask Woll to make many A+ saves, taxing him far less than they did the last time the series was in South Florida last weekend. They blocked a ton of shots, boxed out well, and kept Woll pretty clean. Woll, for his part, limited second opportunities by absorbing pucks really well as he made all the saves asked of him. His stellar track record late in the series is now something to keep an eye on as we head to Game 7.
Storylines for Game 7
1. The pivotal first goal. The first goal is humongous in every Game 7 in the NHL, but for these two teams especially. Though we’ve seen it happen twice in these playoffs, blown third-period leads (especially multi-goal leads) are exceedingly rare in Game 7s. Teams get that lead, and then all 19 players try and park the bus like no tomorrow. Generally speaking, they are very good at it, and trying to tie a game in the third period of a Game 7 is a heck of a slog.
These two teams in particular are very effective at protecting leads. We have heard time and again on the Sportsnet broadcast throughout the series about how good both Florida and Toronto have been this season and in the playoffs when leading after the first and the second periods. Each team failed to win a game in the series when scoring first (G2/G3), but the team that scored first won the other four games, and it’s safe to expect it to be the case in this one. These are two terrific defensive teams with goalies they trust in these situations.
If the Leafs score first, they are in their comfort zone and will force Florida to press, opening up opportunities for rush chances the other way to pad the lead, like the Pacioretty goal in Game 6. If Florida scores it, the Leafs will be fighting uphill against a team they have scored just three goals against in the last three games. So much hinges on the first goal in Game 7.
2. Ineffective power plays. Neither team is thriving on the power play at the moment. The Leafs haven’t scored on the man advantage since the Tavares goal in the second period of Game 3, while the Panthers were just held to an 0/4 night on the PP, with none of their opportunities looking particularly threatening. You can say the same for the Leafs’ two power plays in Game 6, one of which saw the top unit pulled off the ice after about 50 seconds. The Panthers did score a power play goal in garbage time of Game 5 (up 5-0 in the 3rd period), and they scored one on what was essentially a 5v3, after three foiled power plays in the first period of Game 4. But after scoring on the PP once in Game 1 and Game 2, they have just those two tallies on the PP in the past four games.
I wouldn’t say that the Panthers’ PP has threatened the Leafs all that much in that time, either. Which, again, you can also say about the Leafs’ PP, which has struggled with Florida’s hyper-aggressive penalty kill. Usually, there are not many penalties called in a Game 7 — maybe one or two PPs for each team at most — and the general expectation at this point is that neither team will score on them. Both units have been stymied by the opposing PK to the point where both units won’t be carrying a ton of confidence into Game 7.
3. Matthew Knies’ health. This is up in the air as I write this, with Berube unable to clarify Knies’ status without further testing before Game 7. The Leafs are obviously capable of winning without Knies, but not having him would be a big blow, for the presence he brings to the forecheck, his role on the power play, and his ability to score greasy goals in front. Game 7 goals are often decided by greasy rebounds or deflections, and Knies would be a classic Game 7 hero candidate. He’s also generally had tons of success against teams from the state of Florida in his career and has shown a clutch gene, scoring a playoff OT goal last year against Boston (and contributing to Tavares’ series-winner vs. Tampa). The Leafs could really use a bit of injury luck to get Knies healthy enough to play (and be reasonably effective) in this game.
If Knies is unable to go, it would be a decision between David Kämpf and Nick Robertson as to who draws back into the lineup. Robertson is a cleaner fit on the wing and has the shot to potentially give you something offensively in a series where you’ve been struggling to score goals. On the other hand, Kämpf has the defensive and penalty-killing pedigree and has versatility as a center, especially handy if the Leafs spot Laughton in for top-six wing shifts situationally (i.e., with the lead).
4. The goaltending battle, young vs. old. To win a Game 7, you need a goalie to make at least a couple of massive saves for you, so our attention ought to turn to the goalie battle. Sergei Bobrovsky was off his game to begin the series but has been much stronger since the middle of Game 3. The defensive environment around him has also gotten better in that time, with the number of rush chances against dropping off.
Bobrovsky, at age 36, is a legend. He has won over 400 games in the NHL, taken home two Vezina Trophies, and lifted the Stanley Cup last season. He’s backstopped the Panthers to Game 7 wins over Edmonton in the Stanley Cup Final in 2024 and to a massive upset of the Bruins in the first round in Boston back in 2023. Bobrovsky is the definition of experience, to be contrasted with Joseph Woll, who is 26 years old with only 84 career games played in the NHL.
Despite the limited experience, we’ve seen Woll be incredibly clutch, now sporting a career .957 SV% and a 4-1 record in elimination games after Game 6. We all know about Toronto’s Game 7 problems during the Core Four era, but the one thing they haven’t had is Woll start one in the net, as he missed last year’s Game 7 with a sudden injury. With Frederik Andersen in the net for a sudden-death game, the Leafs were 0-3. With Jack Campbell in the net for a Game 7, the Leafs were 0-2. With Ilya Samsonov in the net, they were 0-1. Now, it’s Woll’s turn to snap that drought and finally deliver a win.
5. The Final Stand for the Core Four? This is what everyone is thinking about, right? Game 7 of this series has the aura usually reserved only for Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final, where you go in knowing you’re about to watch narrative-defining history that will be remembered for years and will shape careers forever. That’s the case for this Game 7, strangely the case for a second-round series: either it is the most predictably heart-breaking ending for the Leafs or the Leafs finally push through, ending Florida’s reign of terror over the Eastern Conference and making their first ECF appearance in a generation. Of course, we all know the potential implications for Marner’s Leaf tenure.
So much is riding on this. The exciting rookie year, Tavares coming home, the failures against Boston, the comeback and belly-flop against Columbus, the Montreal choke, Matthews scoring 50 in 50 and finally winning MVP, the heartbreak against Tampa, the ecstasy of breaking through in 2023 and then immediate disappointment of a five-game loss to the Panthers, the-70 goal chase, and one final loss in G7 OT at TD Garden. All the years, all the memories, all the glimmers of hope, all the moments of pain lead us to this point.
The “Core Four Era” could live on for at least another two weeks, with a legitimate path to becoming forever heroes. Either every Leaf fan on earth will be back all the way in and the bandwagon will be buzzing to a cacophony of car horns and delirium through Yonge-Dundas Square, or the rally towels will finally be thrown in on this era of Leafs hockey as a funeral-silent crowd files out of Scotiabank Arena, having experienced one more kick in the groin.
If a certain player doesn’t return next season, some are inclined to believe that the Leafs will be better off, that they can use the cap space more effectively to build a deeper roster. Certainly, it could be the case! But it’s also not a guarantee. As Dan Campbell said after the Detroit Lions’ crushing loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the 2023-24 playoffs, “This may have been our only shot.” Tomorrow is never guaranteed at the highest level of competitive sports, and there is no guarantee that the Maple Leafs will be back with a chance to clinch a ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals, whether he stays or goes. Don’t let this slip away. Legacies are on the line on Sunday night. One last time, we’ll find out what this group is made of.
