With an important two points on the line in this divisional matchup between two under-performing rivals, this was a complete team effort on the road from the Maple Leafs.
The Leafs’ bottom six did all of the team’s scoring (until the empty-netter by John Tavares), Toronto won over 70% of the faceoffs, won more than their fair share of the puck battles, blocked twice as many shots, had the more effective forecheck of the two teams, took just one penalty all night (which was a clear dive by Mackie Samoskevich), and got near-perfect goaltending from Joseph Woll. If it wasn’t for a blip on the power play, this was about as good a road win in Florida as the Leafs could’ve asked for.
The first frame wasn’t fully a 2-0 period in terms of the Leafs’ dominance over the play — the Leafs iced it seven times in the first 20, and Woll was good early/they also cleared one off their goal line— but they settled in as the period progressed and were opportunistic offensively, with goals from Troy Stecher and Dakota Joshua on two of their first three shots of the game.
The second period wasn’t really a 1-0 Florida period, either; the Leafs started to take the game over in the middle frame, stringing several offensive-zone shifts together and looking more likely to put the game firmly in hand at 3-0 or 4-0 up until they earned a power play, which spectacularly backfired due to a defensive-zone implosion by the five-forward PP unit.
The shorthanded goal by Sam Reinhart could’ve been a big swing moment in the game. Instead, for a Leafs team that has been anything but a sure thing with the lead this season, they took care of the business in the third period, giving up a total of one high-danger chance while generating six of their own.
The concern was that the Leafs were letting the Panthers hang around; they weren’t bearing down on those grade-A looks they created as Florida pressed, including breakaways for Bobby McMann and Max Domi and a glorious shorthanded look for Nic Roy that Sergei Bobrovsky robbed with a partially athletic/partially lucky stick save. But then a much-needed monkey-off-the-back goal from Scott Laughton, started by a great forechecking effort by Nick Robertson on Gustav Forsling and a quick puck to the net from Steven Lorentz, put the game more safely in hand for the Leafs, who have now won two consecutive games for the first time since early November.
Post-Game Notes
– The Leafs finished just below even in the five-on-five shot attempts (entirely due to the first 5-10 minutes of the game), but handily won on expected goals and finished with a 68% score on the deserve-to-win-o-meter. The Panthers were without Barkov, Tkachuk, Luostarinen, and Verhaeghe, but you can only play the lineups presented in front of you and should make no apologies in this league (especially for a team with the Leafs’ injury troubles this season). This was a big divisional game, given the context of the two teams’ desperation levels and the Leafs needing to prove the Penguins’ win wasn’t a one-off/could be the beginning of an actual turnaround. Best win of the season isn’t overstating matters.
– Sizing up the Panthers’ heavily depleted forward lineup — it’s probably fairly described as the equivalent of the Leafs missing Matthews, Nylander, Knies, and Roy from their lineup — you were hoping the Leafs might be able to find some advantages in the depth areas of the respective lineups. The Matthews and Tavares lines played the Bennett and Lundell lines to a saw-off in goals, although certainly, the Matthews line should’ve scored multiple times — Knies, Matthews, and Domi all missed on breakaways or partial breakaways, among other good looks. The Roy line created the Leafs’ first and second goals — the second being the game winner, ultimately — against the Rodriguez line, tipping the game in the Leafs’ favour.
– One minor concern about Nic Roy’s history in the league was the fact that he wasn’t a stalwart on faceoffs throughout his career, and in his first five games as a Leaf, he was in the low 40s in faceoff success rate. He’s turned it around in a big way and is now averaging 55% after those first five. He won a whopping 80% tonight (12/15), while starting 12 five-on-five faceoffs in the defensive zone to just one in the offensive zone. Roy was starting to come on strong before his untimely injury in the Chicago game, and since he’s returned, he’s settled into looking like the type of 3C the Leafs thought they were acquiring in the summer, as he’s giving the Leafs a solid 16-17 minutes while helping free up Matthews a little more offensively.
Matthews has started 60% of his faceoffs in the offensive zone since he returned from injury, which is right around where he was during his peak production years under Sheldon Keefe between 2022-2024.
– The addition of Bobby McMann’s speed to that third line — combined with Dakota Joshua skating and battling much, much better since the healthy scratch — has helped a big-bodied line transition out of their own zone better and start to play on offense more in the past two games, bringing their heaviness to the fore. They came out even in shot attempts despite the defensive slant to their usage and came out ahead in high-danger chances to go along with the two goals. You don’t want to speak too soon, as they need more consistency out of all three players (particularly McMann and Joshua), but you can see the potential for a true identity line forming here.
– The waiver pickup from a few weeks ago scored a goal and an assist, played 24.5 minutes with a plus-four, and made four shot blocks tonight. We all thought Troy Stecher’s NHL experience, right shot, and pace/puck movement could help the Leafs’ defense core break out a little better, but who could’ve pictured this kind of an impact? The return to the left with a reliable partner to his right has all but instantly cured Jake McCabe’s woes as well. The domino effect of the waiver claim has been significant and looks even more important with the latest news of a Brandon Carlo setback.
– Thought the pace and puck pressure of this game was an eye-opener at times for Easton Cowan, who turned a lot of pucks over in the defensive zone. The positive spin on it is that young players with Cowan’s level of hockey IQ tend to adapt a lot more quickly as they gain experience inside these kinds of games.
– 16:37 in ice time (zero shots on goal) is easily a season-low for William Nylander. He was one of the few exceptions while almost all Leafs were pulling on the rope in the right direction tonight.
– You could tell how much that first goal/point of the season meant to Scott Laughton. Listening to Laughton before the game — a very candid interviewee and self-critic — he made no bones about how the PK, faceoffs, and defensive play are all well and good, but he has to chip in offensively, specifically citing the two breakaways in Washington and the need to bear down. Seeing a puck go in did instant wonders for Joshua and Roy’s confidence. We’ll see if it can do the same for Laughton.
We’ve already talked about line three, but Laughton has scored around or above a 15-goal pace several times in this league, Nick Robertson can score 15-20, and Steven Lorentz has multiple 8-10 goal seasons on his resume. The Leafs should be able to get “bottom six” nights like this one — and the one in Pittsburgh — more frequently than they did for much of October/November.
– The Leafs’ all-situations save percentage before Joseph Woll returned from personal leave: .877, 26th in the NHL. Since he returned? .917, sixth in the NHL. The big consideration is avoiding overloading Woll out of the gates of his season, as they did with Anthony Stolarz. At a minimum, next week’s Thursday night game against San Jose has to be circled as a Dennis Hildeby start, which would give Woll a four-day rest.
– Understand wanting to give the five-forward power play proper time to gel, but up 2-0 on the road in Florida, with the likes of Reinhart and Lundell lined up on the opposing PK, given what the unit had shown so far (some decent puck movement, but no goals and lots of danger the other way)? Really tough call to justify.
– Someone has to look up a defenseman scoring a 1-0 goal on the team’s first shot of the game three games in a row (Stecher vs. Florida, OEL vs. Pittsburgh, Rielly vs. Washington). Has to be a first?
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
