A gutsy third-period effort to erase a 3-1 deficit in Winnipeg turned a tough road trip into a relatively successful one (five of eight points) for the Maple Leafs.

Ahead of a travel-heavy, condensed trip through Colorado, Utah, Vegas, and Winnipeg, the realistic goal for the Maple Leafs was simply to keep pace in the playoff race and not cede any of the ground previously made up by their 7-0-2 run. Thanks to a resilient effort in Winnipeg, the Leafs accomplished the goal with a 2-1-1 stretch, and they now return to home ice — where they’re 16-5-5 this season — for a five-game homestand.

It very much felt like we were going to sing a different tune for a healthy portion of the evening. The first period seemed like a bit of a carryover from the third-period collapse in Vegas in some ways, as the Leafs really struggled to make clean plays breaking out of their end, repeatedly throwing pucks away up the wall and generally battling sloppy turnovers. The Leafs were credited with 10 giveaways to the Jets’ two; shot attempts were 17-10 Winnipeg, and high-danger chances at five-on-five were recorded at 6-0, per Natural Stat Trick. While there was a decent late push from a Matthews-Tavares-Knies line off an offensive-zone draw, Dennis Hildeby, and the Leafs riding some puck luck with the goal posts, were the reasons it remained 0-0 after 20 minutes.

The start of the second period wasn’t much better, as a couple of Scott Laughton turnovers first led to a penalty and then to a breakaway for the Jets on the subsequent Winnipeg power play. The Leafs looked to have dodged another bullet before a point shot shortly after the power play’s expiry led to a deflection in front to give the Jets a deserved 1-0 lead.

By the midway point of the game, this really felt like it wasn’t going to be the Leafs’ night. A good pushback shift by the Nic Roy line ended in a Leaf penalty for a Nick Robertson high stick in the offensive zone, and on the subsequent kill, the Leafs should’ve tied the game shorthanded. On a 2v1, Laughton found Steven Lorentz for a point-blank look where Lorentz just needed to elevate the puck over the goalie’s pad, and Brandon Carlo also didn’t bury the follow-up opportunity. There was another great shorthanded Lorentz chance at the very end of the PK that Lorentz flubbed.

Right after the PK expired, Troy Stecher didn’t get a clear up the wall, and Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele were suddenly in a down-low 2v1. Jake McCabe made the right play to take away the automatic backdoor goal and leave the shooter to Hildeby, but Connor executed really well on the shortside finish as he walked out from the corner.

The shift immediately after the 2-0 goal was a big moment in the game. Good work on the walls by Bobby McMann and Max Domi following a dump-in, as well as a smart pinch by Morgan Rielly, set the stage for Domi to link up with Matthews, who buried post-and-in from the slot.

The Leafs didn’t generate enough with a pair of power plays in the middle 20 — just one shot on goal in four minutes of PP time — but they could’ve tied it at five-on-five, as Matias Maccelli hit a post then set up Matthew Knies for a good chance in tight (which drew one of the PPs), and Matthews had a good backhand attempt in the low slot. It was a solid response from the Leafs after going 2-0 down; shots were 6-3 for Toronto at five-on-five in the period, and high-dangers were 7-3 for the Leafs.

Early in the third period, another swing moment broke against the Leafs, putting them back in a two-goal hole. A good play by Stecher to drive the puck down the ice and hard rim it to Domi behind the net led to Domi setting up Bobby McMann point blank in the slot, but McMann didn’t bear down. When the play transitioned the other way, a tired defense pair of Rielly-Myers, plus the Tavares line, was chasing it in their own zone. Rielly, similar to the play against Keegan Kolesar in Vegas, couldn’t handle the box out on Nino Niederreiter, and Hildeby probably could’ve managed the rebound on the point shot better than spitting it out into the slot.

Again, though, the Leafs stuck with it. Three minutes later, they found a 3-2 goal off a really nice play by Nick Robertson to stop up and rip a seam pass to OEL jumping up on the weakside, where OEL’s finishing quality matched the setup to make it game-on again.

The Leafs should’ve tied it right after the 3-2 goal. Max Domi was in all alone but attempted a fairly telegraphed, unserious between-the-legs attempt instead of properly bearing down. In the final 10 minutes, Lorentz again had a glorious scoring chance that he should’ve done better with. It was again feeling like it wasn’t the Leafs’ night, but then the top line (and OEL) stepped up again with just under five minutes to go.

The Roy line did a good job of leaving the game in a good place for the next shift, applying offensive-zone pressure that led to an offensive-zone draw out of a TV timeout. With Rielly and OEL paired off alongside the Matthews line, Matthews cleaned out Adam Lowry in the circle, and OEL’s sifter was tipped nicely by McMann from above the hashmarks to tie the game up.

The referees then attempted to ruin a good hockey game with a soft high-sticking call on Matthew Knies, setting up a massive late-third-period kill that required some good work from Laughton, a great in-tight stop by Hildeby on Jonathan Toews, and a goal post to survive.

At three-on-three, OEL capped his yeoman’s performance with a good play to jump on an attempted pass in the neutral zone and send Matthews and Domi away for a 2v1, which they executed to perfection.

With the win, the Maple Leafs moved to 8-1-0 against Winnipeg since Mark Scheifele’s infamous “Anything better than beating the Leafs?” line back in 2021. The lower bowl in Winnipeg appeared to be 60%+ Leafs fans, who erupted in celebration of the winner.

Post-Game Notes

– Oliver Ekman-Larsson played over 25 minutes in this game, picked up a great goal and two nice assists, and was on the ice for every single Leafs goal (+4). Six of the Leafs’ seven OT winners this season have been scored with OEL on the ice (vs. zero against!), with OEL assisting on three of them. He’s also now tied for fifth among NHL defensemen in five-on-five points (23). What a season he’s having.

– With Nylander out, and Knies-Tavares not having their best nights (not sure there is enough pace between them to play them together without Nylander on the other wing), a lot of it fell on Auston Matthews to lead the way tonight, and he delivered. The Jets matched Adam Lowry against him for most of the game — a matchup he simply needed to decisively win, given the circumstances — and he came out ahead 2-0 in five-on-five goals while winning five of his six draws against Lowry, including the one that led to the game-tying goal late in the third. He then, of course, set up the game-winner in OT.

– The definition-of-insanity-level unforced error that is dressing Philippe Myers repeatedly continues to hamper the Leafs. He was minus-two in under 10 minutes — he didn’t take a shift after the 3-1 Jets goal — but it was less about those goals specifically and more about the overall drag effect he often creates on the team. The Leafs fairly regularly move to five D (effectively) when he struggles, overtaxing the rest of the D core. Myers took just three shifts in the second period and one in the third. If there was a play that encapsulates Myers’ struggles this season, it was the one in the first period when the Leafs had some offensive-zone time going, Matthews made a simple pass to the point, Myers nearly fell over trying to (unsuccessfully) receive it, and the Jets went down the rink to tilt the ice again. You can’t convince me Matt Benning‘s baseline level of competence with the puck isn’t notably higher than Myers’ to the point where he should — at a minimum — be rotating in, even if he gives up some size to Myers.

– John Tavares finishing at nearly 20 minutes of ice time in this game is also head-scratching. He’s really fighting it of late, and his legs looked particularly heavy as this road trip progressed. It’s clear that a little less would likely be more right now. Scott Laughton uncharacteristically battled some turnover issues and odd decision-making at points in this game, but the ice-time gap shouldn’t be so big between Tavares and Roy + Laughton right now, as both finished in the 13-minute range to Tavares’ 19:40.

– How often, earlier in his career, would Nick Robertson have tried to call his own number off the rush on the 3-2 OEL goal, instead of stopping up, surveying the ice, and firing a really good pass cross-ice through the seam to OEL? Robertson sees the ice and makes plays much better than his younger self. With his primary assist on the goal, Robertson tied his career high in assists (13) in his 45th game of the season.

It felt like it would have to be either the Roy-Robertson line and/or the Matthews line finding a way offensively for the Leafs tonight, and they both came up big in the third.

– The between-the-legs attempt was a little frustrating, but it doesn’t detract from Max Domi‘s performance in this game overall, as he fired five shots on goal, picked up the OT winner, set up Matthews’ 2-1 goal (and nearly set up McMann for a tying 3-3 goal), and got under the Jets’ skin a little bit with the jab at Kyle Connor after the whistle. It’s a bizarre situation in that it’s difficult to place Domi just about anywhere else in the Leafs’ lineup, but he and Matthews simply jive out there.

– It was a really frustrating finish to the road trip from an officiating perspective, as the high-sticking call on Knies was really soft, especially for the time in the game, and it was immediately followed by a missed too-many-men call the other way. It was nice to see Craig Berube continue to give it to the refs on the way off the ice following the win.

The Leafs left the last two 60+ minute games with just three power-play opportunities total, and it’s pretty difficult to win in tough buildings on the road without a boost from special teams. They still grabbed three of the four points, and it really should’ve been all four. The Leafs are now second in the NHL behind only Colorado in five-on-five goals.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights w/Joe Bowen: Maple Leafs 4 vs. Jets 3 (OT)

 

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