The Maple Leafs left the Olympic break hoping to embark on some sort of winning run to give themselves a fighting chance at the playoffs. Three games later, they’re all but out of it.
Not only are the Leafs 0-3 since the break, but they emphatically lost all three games, making it crystal clear that the only course of action now is to sell. Frankly, as we wrote after the loss to the Senators, it was so embarrassing that a change should have followed the very next day.
Of course, the Leafs under General Manager Brad Treliving haven’t actually made a trade since July 17. This ineptitude is the tip of the iceberg in the story of what makes deadline week so complicated in Toronto.
The Leafs entered this season with MLSE President Keith Pelley talking up the team’s contention window. Not only are they not contending, but they aren’t even invited to the conversation and have essentially been out of the playoff picture after their stunning five-game homestand in which they earned just one point.
The whole season has been a grind, from the absences of key players in Joseph Woll, Chris Tanev, and William Nylander, to underperforming players in Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, and Anthony Stolarz. They aren’t the only culprits, but they are the team’s most important players, and the Leafs haven’t received the proper bang for their buck across the board.
As the season has slowly slipped away, the GM has made zero trades. To this point, Treliving has managed one waiver claim (which was relatively successful!) and fired an assistant coach. On two separate occasions, he has fully supported Craig Berube publicly.
All of this is grounds for dismissal, but before then, Treliving will run the trade deadline. It’s hard to square how it would work logically, but I guess if we squint for hope, the Bruins’ 2025 deadline — which has been brought up a lot in the Toronto market — actually earned GM Don Sweeney a contract extension in a season when they missed the playoffs. There’s at least a source of inspiration there: If Treliving does a good enough job this week, maybe there’s a path to redemption.
One move Sweeney made, though, that Treliving did not, was firing his head coach earlier in the season to help with the evaluation process. It’s been clear, essentially all season, that the Leafs‘ coaching staff is out of their depth with this roster and cannot implement any semblance of structure.
The Leafs are among the league’s worst teams in virtually every underlying metric. They can’t defend, they can’t drive play, and they can’t create high-danger offense at even a middling rate anymore. The whole roster looks terrible, and that is the absolute worst time to make decisions about players.
Let’s recap some of the asset-management decisions from last season to this one. Pontus Holmberg was used way out of his depth in the Leafs’ top six, they let him walk for free, a division rival immediately signed him to a multi-year deal on the first day of free agency, and he already has a career high in goals while playing a career high in minutes per game (in a top-nine checking role on one of the best teams in the league). In fact, only Nick Robertson has more goals than Holmberg among the Leafs’ bottom-six forward group.
In Pittsburgh, Connor Dewar already has 13 goals, which would actually rank sixth on the Leafs. The Leafs cleared his contract, along with Conor Timmins, for a fifth-rounder in a pure player dump. In Toronto, Dewar played almost exclusively with David Kampf and Ryan Reaves, and — shocker — he did not produce. Now, just like Holmberg, he’s playing a top-nine role for a Pittsburgh team that looks destined to make the playoffs.
Dewar, in particular, was poor in Toronto, while Holmberg was miscast and struggled in that role, inviting unwarranted criticism beyond his control. On the other hand, Alex Steeves couldn’t get a proper look despite coming up and playing pretty well. Steeves left for free, signed with the Bruins, made the team, and has already earned a two-year extension.
This isn’t an exercise in pining for these former players; rather, it’s a few recent examples of players who weren’t set up for success in Toronto under the player deployment and systems in place with this coaching staff, and who immediately prospered after leaving the Leafs.
On the flip side, it would be easier to list the current Leafs who are actually playing well, let alone above expectations. That list might actually start and end at OEL. The rest of the roster is, to a man, largely underachieving.
You can argue this roster is flawed and needs reconstruction (or worse), but nobody should seriously believe that this roster is so poor that they can’t even compete with the Ottawa Senators, who will also (likely) miss the playoffs. The old adage that a bad coach can significantly hinder an athlete/team more than a good coach can improve one really does hold true. Player by player, the whole team is underachieving; this is no fluke. Those are difficult conditions for making trades, either because you’ll fetch less value than you should, or because you’ll simply misevaluate who to keep and who to move.
Some might say, “Who cares? Just tear it down anyway,” but no organization can afford to be in a vicious cycle of constantly shedding good players for pennies on the dollar and watching them play well elsewhere. It doesn’t make any sense.
Notable change is required; this isn’t to suggest they should be hesitant to make a number of moves — in fact, they should do the opposite — but it’s a convoluted mess at the moment, one ripe for making bigger mistakes rather than netting notable gains. The coach and GM spearheading the operation have been too paralyzed to do anything or unable to rectify a single issue on this team.
Ultimately, there should be a review not just of their jobs but of the entire management structure. The Maple Leafs need a President overseeing the hockey operation who is an actual hockey person with a clue—not someone with a European golf background who has no ability to hold anyone accountable or contribute to any strategic hockey decisions whatsoever.
In the meantime, this is about as unenviable a situation as can be. The GM making the decisions, short of having the week of his career, has no leg to stand on to be the GM of this team — or likely any other NHL team — ever again. The head coach should have been gone months ago, yet he is still actively making every player on the team look worse. The group of players appears to have essentially quit on the coach. You could stomach all of it with the promise of a first-round pick on the horizon, but the Leafs don’t own theirs, and the idea that they will slip into the bottom five is really hard to picture, knowing the bottom five teams are so bad and will also sell off pieces this week.
This is a difficult situation for even the most savvy management group to navigate, let alone the one currently occupying the Leafs’ front office.
Notes
– Ahead of the trade deadline, there are two situations I am mindful of. One is the team’s draft-pick arsenal: in the upcoming draft, the Leafs own third-, fifth-, and sixth-round picks. It’s not nearly good enough. It needs to not only double (at least), but it also needs selections inside the top two rounds. The team simply can’t be this bad, barely draft, and not have any notable prospects on the way.
Secondly, the Leafs need to clear the logjam on their roster ahead of next season. They have three goalies, seven defensemen, and nine forwards already under contract for 2026-27. All of Nick Robertson, Matias Maccelli, and Jacob Quillan are pending RFA forwards under team control as well. They need to change the roster, and it starts by blowing some holes in this lineup. We shouldn’t see the Leafs ice anything that remotely resembles the current defense group next season. The forward group needs an injection of speed and youth. They have three talented goalies, and in an ideal world, moving one of them could allow them to plug a roster hole elsewhere while maintaining a strong tandem.
– Further to the point about logjams, the Leafs — as we’ve mentioned multiple times before in this space — can’t have all four of Robertson, Easton Cowan, Maccelli, and Max Domi on their roster moving forward. At best, they can keep two, and one of them should obviously be Cowan.
– The Leafs also likely don’t need both Steven Lorentz and Dakota Joshua. Both are big left-wingers who are decent checkers but slow skaters and aren’t overly physical. It’s hard to imagine the Leafs offloading Joshua’s contract. Lorentz is a genuinely good penalty killer, is cheaper, and has a Cup ring.
– I will be disappointed if Treliving straight-up sells players for picks without much creativity beyond that. With Chris Tanev’s season all but done, they can take on salary to beef up a return. We’ve mentioned players like Andrew Mangiapane, Warren Foegele, and Ryan Strome, to name a few. On top of acquiring additional assets, I’d bet some of those players would show well with an opportunity in Toronto and either become a contributor moving forward or increase their value in a trade flip next year. Management needs to start thinking along these lines.
– Brandon Carlo and/or Oliver Ekman-Larsson probably represent their best opportunity acquire a significant asset, given they both have term on their deals and play a highly coveted position. It would be surprising if the Leafs sat on both through the deadline. Frankly, they need to make a big trade that gives fans some sense of hope or promise moving forward. There’s a world where the deadline can actually be pretty exciting and provide fans with a reason to watch through to the end of the season, but they would need to make some bigger, more creative moves.
Quotes
After practice time has been at such a premium, what is it like to get a week like this, with so much time on the ice?
Berube: Very good. I have been very happy with the last two days of practice, especially today. We’re working on defensive things — the stuff we need to work on going forward. Coming out of the break, we have to tighten it up.
Are you implementing any new wrinkles in practice, offensively or defensively, at a time like this?
Berube: I think we’ve implemented our stuff before the break, with what we were going to implement, when we had everybody here. It’s nothing new right now. We’re just trying to dial everything in, in all three zones, as best as we can.
In three games since the break, the Leafs have given up 14 goals. In the loss to Tampa Bay, they gave up more quality chances per five-on-five minute than all but one game this season (Utah). Against Ottawa, they gave up 16 straight shots on net and couldn’t get out of their own end.
It sums up the current situation in Toronto: After a break to reset, including extended practice time in which the coach got everyone back to work on their defensive details, the Leafs immediately filed two of their worst defensive performances of the season. This staff has lacked answers all season, and it’s never been clearer.
“It was embarrassing, to be honest with you. We have to have more pride in our play.”
– Auston Matthews following the 5-2 loss to Ottawa
Matthews is right, but it also starts with the captain.
“You try not to think about it, but it’s your life … I love my time here. I love spending time with the guys and being in the fight. I want to continue to be in it with these guys. But we have to … put some wins together.”
– Scott Laughton on the trade deadline
I can appreciate that it’s nerve-racking to be on the trading block with no clue where you might be living in a week. I can also appreciate that Scott Laughton clearly likes it in Toronto. They are humans, but this is the unfortunate reality of the situation.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. As much as everyone wants to talk trade, one of the top things on my mind right now is the Toronto Marlies.
Bo Groulx is now tied for third in the AHL in goals. His 25 goals in 52 games are an impressive rate and blow his previous AHL career high of 18 goals out of the water. Groulx just turned 26 in February and was a second-round pick back in 2018 (he has some pedigree). He’s also played 65 games in the NHL and scored just one goal and five points, so I’m not going to salivate at the upside. Still, he has been very good and earned a look in a lost season. A 6’2 winger with a scoring touch is well worth a gander, especially when he is signed for peanuts moving forward.
And then there is Jacob Quillan, who deserves a real look, not just a call-up and six minutes of ice time. If the Leafs trade Laughton and/or Roy, there is a center gap; they need to determine whether the pending RFA is a viable option. Quillan’s former college teammate, Colin Graf, is the same age, also undrafted, and is enjoying a great season in the NHL. Quillan is enjoying a great season in the AHL, but he has not sniffed a real chance with the Leafs yet. This has to change down the stretch.
At the forward position, no other Marlie really stands out as ready for a real look (Luke Haymes has been lighting it up lately but should keep developing in the AHL unless an injury or something forces their hand). Maybe, if the Leafs keep putting on uninspired performances as they did against Ottawa, I would consider calling up Michael Pezzetta in hopes he can run around and initiate some nonsense.
2. On defense, in terms of internal options, I am much less optimistic. Both William Villeneuve and Henry Thrun have sizable warts defensively and aren’t dynamic enough offensively to make up for it. I’d still like to take a look at them, knowing it’s a lost season — maybe they discover something in a younger player — but it’s not in the same tier as Groulx or Quillan for me. Beyond those two, defenseman Noah Chadwick needs time, although he is turning in a quietly promising rookie season.
3. I think the Leafs are officially at a point where they should sit players if they’re likely to trade them. There is no point in risking an injury or additional viewings of their players while they play like this as a team. It doesn’t help anyone’s cause.
4. I also think the Leafs should send Easton Cowan down to the Marlies by the 3 p.m. trade deadline to ensure he is eligible for the AHL playoffs. He already got a month off for no reason whatsoever; he doesn’t need an early summer on top of it. There’s no logical reason that he shouldn’t be playing in the playoffs with the Marlies when the time comes. It’s extra high-pressure game action, puck touches, experience, and development in pro hockey. It would be the cherry on top of the Leafs’ season of prospect mismanagement if they don’t paper his eligibility. It should be a no-brainer.
5. Regarding the lines or defense pairings this week, I have a few notes. There is no justification for the Morgan Rielly – Brandon Carlo pairing. It hasn’t worked, and they don’t need to keep forcing it. Just run McCabe-Carlo and Rielly with either Troy Stecher or Oliver Ekman-Larsson. This isn’t complicated.
If Auston Matthews and William Nylander keep playing as they have recently, I’d play them together. Neither has been remotely good of late, and they are supposed to be the drivers. I wouldn’t sit back and watch them play this way across the top two lines any longer. I would also like to see Easton Cowan with John Tavares for the rest of the way; Cowan can learn from a true pro who can still produce some offense.
