Maple Leafs turn 24th overall pick into two seconds, a third

Mike Babcock: “We’ve got to get more picks for Hunts.”

After first striking a deal with the Philadelphia Flyers (forgoing Travis Konecny, Nick Merkley among a few others who dropped) for 29th overall and 61st, the Leafs worked a deal with Columbus for their 34th and 68th overall in exchange for the Flyers’ 29th. In the end, the Maple Leafs have added two picks at the expense of ten spots (24 to 34) in the Entry Draft.

They will now draft nine times on day two, including four times between 34 and 68: 34th, 61st, 65th, and 68th.

https://twitter.com/steveburtch/status/614633486285176832

After picking up Mitch Marner at four, the Leafs are playing the odds here, hoping to give themselves more opportunities to hit on their picks, and betting on Mark Hunter/Kyle Dubas’ abilities to sift out the steals early on day two.

You can be assured Kyle Dubas has read Michael Schuckers’ paper on What’s a Draft Pick Worth and has made a statistically-backed decision in going with the early second, late second  and an early third over the late first. The basics of how the draft works is that there is always an impact player you missed out on somewhere, and there will undoubtedly be special attention to the career of Travis Konecny now (drafted at #24 after the Flyers traded up). But the basic idea is the more picks, the better the odds of drafting more productive NHL assets, and that the gap between 24 and 34 is insubstantial enough that it makes the extra picks worth it.

The relative value of the 24th overall pick is around 22% of a 1st overall. The combination of the 34th, 61st and 65th pick is worth 38.7%.

— Stephen Burtch (@SteveBurtch) June 27, 2015

the increase in value from 29 to 24 is only 2.5% of the value of a 1st overall pick. The price Philly paid to move up is worth 20.7%.

— Stephen Burtch (@SteveBurtch) June 27, 2015

More than just statistics, the Leafs will have players in mind, of course, and clearly feel there is lots of value left after the first 30 picks this year.

As with all things draft, we’ll only really know in five-ten years time.

Players with some first round buzz who are still around after day 1:

• Jeremy Roy – Full profile here.
• Travis Dermott – Full profile.
• Oliver Kylington – 6’0, 180lb left shot defenceman from AIK in the Swedish league.
• Daniel Sprong – Full profile here.
• Jeremy Bracco – undersized right winger with 32 points in 24 games for the US National Under 18 Team.
• Paul Bittner – 6’4 left winger with 34 goals, 71 points in 66 games in the WHL.
• Vince Dunn – Full profile here.
• Brandon Carlo – Full profile here.
• Jansen Harkins – 6’2 center with 79 points in 70 games for Prince George.

Toronto Maple Leafs 2015 Draft Selections

Updated Prospect Depth Chart after Day 1