The Maple Leafs are back to full(ish) health for one of the most anticipated HNIC matchups of the regular season tonight in Edmonton (7:00 p.m. EST, Sportsnet/CBC).
With the expected return of John Tavares and Matthew Knies, the Leafs will have their full complement of talent available to them besides goaltender Anthony Stolarz — who should be back this week — and two players who haven’t played much/any of a role this season in Jani Hakanpaa and Calle Jarnkrok. The Oilers are also reasonably close to full health, albeit with some day-to-day situations due to illness.
Edmonton has been loading up Draisiatl and McDavid recently, a juggernaut duo that has out-scored the opposition 24-11 at five-on-five, along with 67% xGF this season. By comparison, McDavid has been outscored 26-23 at five-on-five without Draisaitl on the ice with him.
The two play such a significant chunk of the game, and their projected right-wing linemate tonight, Corey Perry, certainly won’t be handling that kind of a workload (22+ minutes). Draisaitl and McDavid will be shifted around with different wingers, and the Leafs, without control over the last change, will need five-man efforts and strong attention to detail up and down the lineup to keep that duo from taking over the game (in addition to avoiding the penalty box). Craig Berube has re-united the McCabe-Tanev pairing for the big matchup, but it’ll take more than one pair and one forward line.
Up front, the return of Knies and Tavares means the Leafs will run their most familiar top-nine combinations of Knies – Matthews – Marner / Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander while bumping Bobby McMann onto the Max Domi-Nick Robertson third line. Pontus Holmberg — who has often been the team’s 2C in Tavares’ absence — will shift to fourth-line wing with David Kampf and Steven Lorentz. Short of splitting up their big four forwards across three lines, it’s about as deep of a look as the Leafs can run with their current personnel (with only Jarnkrok as a possible internal upgrade at some point).
With the return of Knies and McDavid-Draisaitl across the way, tonight would be a good time for the Leafs‘ top line to start taking over games. Matthews-Marner has only modestly out-scored the opposition this season compared to past years, and when playing with the team’s best LW (Knies), they’re up just 19-16 in goals. During the team’s three-game losing slide, Matthews-Marner — who had Bobby McMann on their wing in Knies’ absence — were at 2-2 in five-on-five goals, which, combined with the lack of depth scoring and power-play goals, led to one goal scored in each of the three straight losses.
Game Day Quotes
Connor McDavid on the Leafs vs. Oilers HNIC matchup:
The guys are excited. We get the 5 p.m. start time, which is always nice. They come into our building, and we have to change our schedule around. It is what it is.
It is exciting. It is always fun to play against the Leafs and their big names. They have some special players over there. It is always fun.
I don’t think they love their game right now, either. They are looking to score some goals, and we are looking to stop giving up chances. It will be a good test for both sides.
Craig Berube on the 5 p.m. start time:
Fine with me. I don’t focus on it too much. It is what it is. That’s what TV does.
Berube on his forward line combinations with the team now healthier:
Those lines were together before, and we had three lines creating offense at that point. Bobby McMann, with Max Domi and Nick Robertson, were scoring for us — secondary scoring. Before Patches got hurt for the second time, the line with Willy and Johnny was good for us, too.
You always have pairs that are consistent. I’ve always moved the third guy around a little bit depending on how things looked and how things are going; you can mix it up a little bit. But I do like working in pairs.
Mitch and Matthews have been a pair all year. Johnny and Willy have a pair pretty much all year. Max (Domi) and Bobby have been a pair for quite a bit of a stretch this year, too.
Berube on the takeaways from the team’s 4-3 OT win over Edmonton in November:
You look back at the game and the things you did well on your side of things, but you also look at how the Oilers are playing now. It is a little bit of a different situation, with how the Oilers are playing now. We have to be prepared for that.
Their power play is clicking better. Also, they look like they are playing a quicker game. They are looking to play fast all the time and get going, putting teams on their heels as much as they can.
That is what I see when I watch them. They have some great players you have to be aware of and be on top of as much as possible by taking away time and space away, but they are playing fast as a team.
We have to be on our toes and play fast ourselves. We can’t sit back and watch them. We have to get going. We have to be aggressive.
Jake McCabe on the challenge of matching up with McDavid-Draisaitl on one line:
They like to move them around, and they play together a lot, even if they are not on a line together. They are going to be out there a lot with each other in offensive-zone situations and at certain times in the period. It is something we are used to seeing. Just have to be aware of it.
McCabe on whether there is any temptation to look ahead to the Four Nations break:
We’ve lost three straight. Our focus is on winning hockey games.
Max Pacioretty on how the team can score more goals:
Maybe being a little bit grittier around the net. It is no surprise or secret that we have been trying to play a little bit differently than they were last year — a little bit more of a north-south style. Sometimes, it takes a little bit of grit to get to the inside with extra effort and battles in front of the net to get a second or third chance or beat your defenseman to the net off the wall.
It sounds simple, and we are trying to play a bit more of a simple game, but it comes with a bit of an attitude that you are going to win your check. Ultimately, that can help you score goals.
It has come in waves. There have been times when we have felt very good about our game, and there have been times when it’s not so much. That is the same for any team in any season. You want to peak at the right time.
It hasn’t been perfect, and we have had a bit of adversity with injuries, but the good thing is that we know what we need to do to be successful. It is not like we are questioning how we have to play. We know what it takes for our group to be successful and to play that north-south style. It is up to us to execute.
Pacioretty on the Jake McCabe-Chris Tanev pairing:
When you go back for a puck with those two, it is predictable, knowing where it is going to go and how it is going to come out of the zone. More often than not, it is going to come out of the zone with control.
That is what the top teams and top players do — the predictability. They are two guys who go about their business the right way, and it shows.
Pacioretty on playing on a line with William Nylander:
I love how he sees the game so much differently than anyone I’ve played with. That is what makes him so good, and it is also what makes him unique.
I talked about predictability and how our team wants to play, but the top players in the league don’t play like the other guys. They have to have a little bit of uniqueness in them.
I love trying to pick his brain about hockey and why he is so good. I don’t think he even knows why he is so good. He has these little things that he works on that no one else works on — little skating drills that he does before practice that I’ve never seen before.
It is cool to be around such good players who play really differently from each other. It shows that there is not one way to play. But it is no secret they all work so hard at their craft, and that is why they are some of the best.
Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch on moving Corey Perry onto McDavid’s right wing:
With Corey, he is having a pretty successful year. He is playing 10-12 minutes and is among our team leaders in five-on-five points behind McDavid and Draisaitl. He is probably number three in points per 60.
Leon and Connor will play 22-24 minutes, and Corey will not be playing 22-24 minutes, so it will be more of a job by committee. There will be guys who will be up in that spot, but there will be certain situations where we lean on Corey more and other guys in other situations.
Knoblauch on the challenge of matching up against Matthews:
For one, he is a tremendous skater. He is strong. He can’t get knocked off the puck easily. It is similar to the way Leon plays, but maybe with more speed and not as much strength as Leon.
His shooting ability, especially with how quick and hard the wrist shot is, I am not sure anyone else can shoot the puck like he does. If you give him an opportunity and a little space, he becomes dangerous.
It requires an awareness when he is on the ice to not give him that space.
Knoblauch on the meaning of a Leafs vs. Oilers matchup:
It’s exciting, especially when we have so many players from Ontario. They get excited to play against certain teams. Those guys from Ontario — I am sure a lot of them cheered for the Leafs when they were kids, and they like playing against the Leafs.
Playing good teams usually brings out the best in yourself because you know it is going to be a challenge. You know you can’t win playing below average, whereas on some nights, you can kind of get away with it.
We are playing a good team and one we are excited to play against.
Knoblauch on John Klingberg’s season debut on Thursday:
He played better than we expected. He hasn’t played for 14 or 15 months and was coming in mid-season. If you look at his first shift, the first time he touched the puck, he made a hell of a play to break the puck out to Leon, which led to a great rush look. There was the pass he made in the second period to McDavid.
A lot of good things, and that is what we are looking for: a guy who can move the puck. The best defense is a good offense because you are moving the puck up and spending time in the offensive zone. I think he can help us tremendously in that area.
Head-to-Head Stats: Maple Leafs (30-19-2) vs. Oilers (32-15-4)
In the 2024-25 regular season statistics, Edmonton holds the advantage in four out of five offensive categories, but Toronto holds the advantage in three out of five defensive categories.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#23 Matthew Knies — #34 Auston Matthews — #16 Mitch Marner
#67 Max Pacioretty — #91 John Tavares — #88 William Nylander
#74 Bobby McMann — #11 Max Domi — #89 Nick Robertson
#29 Pontus Holmberg — #64 David Kampf — #18 Steven Lorentz
Defensemen
#22 Jake McCabe — #8 Chris Tanev
#44 Morgan Rielly — #95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson
#2 Simon Benoit — #25 Conor Timmins
Goaltenders
Starter: #60 Joseph Woll
#30 Matt Murray
Extras: Ryan Reaves, Philippe Myers, Fraser Minten
Injured (IR): Connor Dewar
Injured (LTIR): Anthony Stolarz, Calle Jarnkrok, Jani Hakanpää
Edmonton Oilers Projected Lines
Forwards
#29 Leon Draisaitl — #97 Connor McDavid — #90 Corey Perry
#33 Viktor Arvidsson — #93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins — #18 Zach Hyman
#92 Vasily Podkolzin — #19 Adam Henrique — #28 Connor Brown
#53 Jeff Skinner — #13 Mattias Janmark — #42 Kasperi Kapanen
Defensemen
#25 Darnell Nurse — #2 Evan Bouchard
#14 Mattias Ekholm — #36 John Klingberg
#27 Brett Kulak — #49 Ty Emberson
Goaltenders
Starter: #74 Stuart Skinner
#30 Calvin Pickard
Injured: Evander Kane, Alec Regula