We’re under 24 hours until the opening of unrestricted free agency. Below is your July 1 Eve roundup.
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Elliotte Friedman on possible destinations for Sharks dynamic duo (Fan 590)
The HNIC broadcaster shares his thoughts on great moments in Canadian sports, why Joe Thornton &/or Patrick Marleau would fit with the Leafs, who Lou Lamoriello may target for his backup goalie, and the domino effect of the reported Connor McDavid deal.
The landscape in the NHL got shaken this week with the McDavid news. All of a sudden, you’re the Islanders and you’ve got Tavares. I don’t know if it affects the Canadiens and Carey Price, but it certainly affects the Toronto Maple Leafs and Matthews. When you’ve got multiple guys with a chance to be great players… I don’t know if Nylander and Marner are going to make what Matthews does it but it maybe moves them up behind him. You have one more year of Nylander and you’ve got two more years of those guys before you have to pay them, really. I think Thornton is a guy who can make a big difference. He can’t play at the same speed as the other guys can, but I think that when he’s on the ice, he controls the tempo. He can still do a lot with your power play. I see the fit as you see another weapon on your team that has a chance to do a lot of things.
Also, don’t forget who the coach is. He won a gold medal and a World Cup with Thornton. He won two gold medals with Marleau. He’s going to know how to maximize these guys. Marleau was playing with Sid, too, for a long part of it, at least in 2014. He trusts the guy and feels the guy can do a lot of different things. I just see them as you add and you give yourself as many weapons as you can and then you find ways to maximize them. I think Babcock is a really smart guy who can do that kind of thing.
[With Thornton], if it’s not San Jose, it’s probably LA. Marleau — I think he’s going to have Anaheim making a good push for him. I think he’s going to have the Rangers making a good push to him. I think Toronto is interested. All of these dominos… I don’t want to say 100% one way or the other, but my guess is that it’s LA if it’s not San Jose for Thornton. Marleau is a wildcard. It could be Anaheim, it could be Rangers, or it could be [Toronto] I guess. Do the Rangers, who have a lot of cap room, offer them both to come together?
On the backup market:
I think they made a big run at Condon. I heard after he signed in Ottawa that he was a guy the Toronto Maple Leafs took a big long look at. They might have been one of the reasons he got a third year out of Ottawa because of Toronto’s interest. I’m sure they’re interested in Grubauer, but from what I understand about him, Washington is making it a big ask to get him out of there. That’s not always easy.
It looks like a lot of these guys are signed. I think Miller is going to Anaheim. Nilsson is going to Vancouver. Mason is going to Winnipeg. Elliott is going to Philadelphia. I think Niemi has got a job in Pittsburgh. I can’t remember if there’s anybody else I’m missing off the top of my head, but it’s interesting that Calgary made a trade yesterday for Lack. Now you’ve got the Rangers looking for a guy. I don’t know if they like too much of what’s out there.
Probably the biggest name left is Bernier and I don’t see a reunion here. You’re probably going to say, “Are we going to pay the price for Grubauer, or is there somebody else out there we’re going to take a look at?” It sounds like the goalie merry-go-round is filling up and everybody has got their guy except for maybe Toronto and the Rangers.
On the timing of William Nylander’s contract:
I haven’t heard a lot about contract talks with Nylander, but that doesn’t mean anything for two reasons: 1) I haven’t even focused on it; 2) We’re not going to hear a lot about contract talks with Toronto at all. If I was Nylander, I might wait a year. If you’re him, are you doing a contract based on what you’ve done the first two years or what you think you’re going to do next year?
The agent who represents Nylander is Lewis Gross, who also represents Johnny Gaudreau. The Gaudreau contract was a precedent-setter, too. For a guy with no arbitration rights and no offer sheet rights, he hit a big number. It’s a number that worked out for both. I think the Flames will be very happy they got him locked in for six years now. But it was a number that set a precedent.
McKenzie: Leafs need to save cap space for future contracts (TSN1050)
TSN Hockey insider Bob McKenzie joined Naylor & Landsberg show to talk about the Free Agent frenzy that will get underway tomorrow, and what options teams have available to them.
On the Leafs‘ search for defence:
I don’t think Shattenkirk is in the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ wheelhouse — money, term. Some people are saying he’s the kind of defenceman they need; I suppose that’s true, but there isn’t an absolute ideal fit for a defenceman that’s out there. Does Jason Demers maybe — and I say maybe — fit the bill a little better? He’s already under contract. He’s making $4.5 million. The Florida Panthers are definitely in the mode to move him. He’s a guy who could conceivably improve the defence of the Toronto Maple Leafs. It could be a soft trade, you never know. To find somebody, I guess, even just another NHL body who can contribute to the cause, somebody who can help make them a little bit better next year but not do it in such a way that they eat up a huge amount of term or money because they’re going to need for that other people down the road.
On Thornton/Marleau:
Not for the Toronto Maple Leafs, I don’t think. Mike Babcock has a huge amount of respect for both Thornton and Marleau, but I would expect San Jose will make a pitch to keep both of those guys. Now, whether it’s well-received or not remains to be seen. If Patty Marleau leaves San Jose, it might give Joe Thornton more pause to consider whether he wants to stay in San Jose or not on a one-year deal. Even if they move, I don’t see them moving to hockey capitals like Toronto or Montreal or some of the other places. That’s not been their style in terms of the off-ice fit. They’ve enjoyed San Jose, and part of the reason they’ve enjoyed San Jose is because it gives them a degree of anonymity and comfort in terms of the off-ice lifestyle. It’s not as hectic and all-consuming as it would be in a place like Toronto or Montreal. I don’t realistically expect that, but I’m sure the Maple Leafs — like a lot of teams — made inquiries.
On Demers, Franson and what’s left in the defence market for the Leafs (MLHS)
Demers is a legitimate #4 who could help drive play in the right situation, but the Leafs might not be that situation. They already have Nikita Zaitsev locked in long-term at the same number – $4.5 million – and his rookie numbers suggest he is in a similar boat to Demers: a capable puck mover, solid even-strength point producer, and a respectable #4 who has some holes in his game defensively.
McKenzie: Leafs want to improve but not at any cost (TSN1050)
Bob McKenzie joined Overdrive to discuss the upcoming NHL free agency, the Leafs needs heading into July 1st and Thornton & Marleau.
They want to improve their team but I don’t think they’re hellbound to do it any cost. Were they in on Hamonic? Yes, they were, but they didn’t get him. Go after the guys that are available that are there if it makes sense. If it doesn’t, back off, because you know deep down that you don’t have to hit homerun this summer. There may not be a homerun to be hit.
On the league-wide impact of McDavid’s reported contract:
I don’t think you can look at anything in a vacuum and say it’s a one-off. Yeah, you can make the case that Connor McDavid is a one-off; that you’re the first overall generational talent who, in your first full season in the NHL and second actual season, not only win the Ted Lindsay Trophy as voted on by the peers as the most outstanding player in the league but then you win the Hart Trophy — adjudged to be the most valuable to your team as voted on by the media — and the Art Ross Trophy as the leading scorer at 20-years-old. Those are credentials that, even if you’re Auston Matthews or somebody else, you’re still hard-pressed to say, “That’s me.”
But, even so — and Bob Goodenow will be the first to tell anybody, “a rising tide floats all boats” — all boats get elevated when the tide goes up. It’s fascinating to me, after so many years in a cap era where $10.5 was the absolute max in terms of the AAV, that suddenly here we are a few years later and it looks like McDavid is going to smash through that ceiling. Once that ceiling gets smashed, it does open the ceiling for other people to climb up there and say, “I should be there, too, and if I’m not, I should be damn close.” I’m going to be fascinated to see. I think we may smash another ceiling here shortly and that will be on netminder Carey Price. The highest paid goaltender in the NHL right now is Henrik Lundqvist at $8.5 million. I’m going to bet that Carey Price is north of $10 million on his extension. If I were Carey Price going into a negotiation with the Montreal Canadiens, I’d say, “Toews is making $10.5 million, Kane is making $10.5 million, Kopitar is making $10 million. I know each of those guys are valuable to their team, but I’m just as valuable if not more valuable to you guys. I recognize it’s a cap world and we need money for Radulov and this guy and we’ve got to rebuild our defence and everything else, but I’m sorry. $10.5 – 10.75 – 11 million, whatever the case may be.
This is going to go down as a summer when the rules changed — the parameters changed — for the elite players in the game. That’s got to have a ripple effect down the line, no question about it.
Maple Leafs’ Lamoriello laughs at ‘win-now’ notion (Toronto Sun)
The Maple Leaf general manager gave a hearty laugh at the notion free-agency shopping would tempt him to accelerate with willy-nilly signings instead of William Nylander-type drafting. To those who insist the Stanley Cup window is a small one in the post-lockout NHL, Lamoriello had a wry comeback on Thursday. “Well, that was fast. To go from where we were (30th place last year) to the window closing … I don’t think so. first of all, you (sign UFAs) if it makes sense, there has to be a reason for it. I think it’s very important to be mentioned we’ve added three free agents already, two defencemen and a forward.”
2017 UFA Bargain Bin: Four players analytics identify as value adds (Sportsnet)
Goal differential followed a similar pattern, with the Sabres’ negative goal differential without Franson being sliced in half when the defenceman was on the ice. Even in tough minutes, Franson’s teams tend to be better when he’s on the ice than they are when he’s on the bench. Add in his ability to play on either special team, and he can be a very useful second-pair right shot defenceman, something that is in short supply in free agency.
On the McDavid effect, The Big 3, and the Maple Leafs’ “2-year window” (MLHS)
Toronto is basically in a pre-Cups Chicago window right now with so many players yet to be paid. Their roster is loaded with talent that is eventually going to fill top roles elsewhere (whether it’s JVR, young players, or prospects). That will place even more emphasis on drafting and developing so that new players can step in on cheap contracts and replace those who have priced themselves out of Toronto.
Marlies Announce Front Office Changes (Marlies.ca)
The Toronto Marlies announced today the hiring of Mike Dixon, Director of Hockey Operations and Alternate Governor in addition to Will Sibley as Hockey Operations, Analyst. Mike Dixon joins the Maple Leafs organization with over 11 years of experience in the NHL. Having previously worked for the Florida Panthers, Mike has held a variety of positions with the Panthers and most recently served as the club’s Director of Hockey Operations. Mike holds an MBA in Sports Management from Florida Atlantic University.
