When the Maple Leafs signed Chris Tanev in the summer, it was widely assumed he would pair up with Morgan Rielly in a do-it-all pairing.
Tanev talked about the potential partnership after the signing, and the two had previously played international hockey together for Team Canada at the World Championships.
The two were paired up at the beginning of the season, just as we all expected. Eight games into the season, though, it changed as the Leafs swapped Rielly and Jake McCabe, uniting McCabe-Tanev as a true shutdown pairing—something that has historically eluded the Leafs, who have often gone into the playoffs needing to scrape one together.
Last season in the Bruins series, the Leafs tried to send the Benoit-McCabe pairing out against the David Pastrnak line as much as possible. The season before, new trade deadline acquisition McCabe was paired up with TJ Brodie in a shutdown role. The season before featured their best shutdown pairing of this era, as Jake Muzzin paired up with Brodie and managed to stay healthy the entire series against the Lightning, one of the reasons it was the best series this era of the Leafs has played to date.
The early returns on McCabe-Tanev show a pairing that will make a difference for this team. In just over 126 5v5 minutes together, they are controlling over 54 percent of shot attempts and over 60 percent of the expected goals. They are up 5-3 in goals despite just 36.71% offensive-zone starts while pairing with a top line centered by Max Domi instead of Auston Matthews recently (needless to say, it makes a massive difference).
Both Tanev and McCabe are not only strong defensively and physical in the tough areas of the defensive zone (in front of the net and the corners), but they can lead the breakout all on their own, able to rip passes to each other cleanly as a lefty-righty duo. The Leafs really haven’t had this dynamic in a primary shutdown role (since Muzzin-Zaitsev…), and the thinnest of margins matter in the playoffs.
The duo is among the top of the league in blocked shots — Tanev is first, and McCabe is 26th — and it’s not been accomplished in a “We’re running around all game and never have the puck” way. They often get in the shot lane the odd time they are on the ice for a chance against.
Both players are in their 30s and have been around the league. They play as you would hope and expect: steady from game to game, they know their limits, and they are professional about filling their role.
On paper, it looked like a good shutdown pairing, and so far, it is coming together as a good shutdown pairing on the ice. While neither player is overly productive offensively, they move it well enough and advance it up ice so cleanly that the Leafs can play McCabe-Tanev with skilled players without hindering them.
This is a big development for a Leafs team that’s lacked a top-flight, elite defenseman. When teams have won Cups without one, they’ve at least possessed a rock-solid shutdown pairing that can eat minutes. The Pittsburgh Penguins without Kris Letang come to mind.
McCabe-Tanev can pair with the Matthews line and go head-to-head, or they can pair with the Tavares line and cover for them defensively. There are options.
While this union always seemed possible, part of the question was whether the rest of their defense would be good enough to support pairing McCabe with Tanev.
The Rielly-OEL pairing hasn’t been anything to write home about (more on that below), but Conor Timmins’ early play has helped round out the defense and made it easier. Jani Hakanpaa appears close to playing in NHL action, which could help, too. Simon Benoit’s game has also started to trend up.
There are viable NHL options here. Can the Leafs figure out the right combinations to go along with their new shutdown pair?
Notes
– Last season, the Leafs were 11-12-3 against Atlantic Division foes. It was tied with the Buffalo Sabres for the worst record within the Atlantic; only Montreal was worse. The first goal should be winning the division, and if you aren’t even .500 within it, you have little to no chance.
It is early days yet — and the Leafs haven’t gone toe-to-toe with Florida yet — but so far, the Leafs are 4-1-1 against their division. Their one regulation loss, the first game of the season in Montreal, easily could have (and probably should have) been a win as well.
– I attended the game on Friday, which was my first time catching them live this season, so I was interested in seeing the team with the full view of the ice. One thing that stood out was the Leafs’ dump-ins.
Under Sheldon Keefe, the Leafs would regularly have forwards stand at the far blue line, and they would rip pucks at them so they could deflect them in deep. Against Boston last playoffs, they did a very good job creating turnovers off the forecheck (at least early on when they were healthy).
Their dump-ins are a little different now, though. There was a lot more of their defensemen skating to center and dumping the puck in rather than the forward doing it. Theoretically, it allows the forwards to gather some speed off the puck. It helps when there is a defense capable of making plays.
The Leafs also mixed in more cross-ice dump-ins, where a forward on one side of the ice is shooting it to the opposite corner. It is an effective way to keep the puck away from the goalie.
Those are a couple of wrinkles in their approach to getting pucks in deep in an effort to produce a more effective forecheck.
– I hate to keep bringing him up, but the Red Wings’ power-play goal was again an example of Pontus Holmberg losing his assignment. The Leafs have regularly run a diamond on the PK this year; he has to pressure the half-wall, but instead, he shot up to the point, leaving the player alone on the half-wall, where he had time to find Larkin in the slot for an easy goal.
Holmberg has also produced some good moments—which is why they keep playing him shorthanded—but the mistakes have been glaring and are adding up.
– There has been lots of talk about Max Domi not shooting enough. Craig Berube has referenced it multiple times, and even Mats Sundin mentioned it during his media rounds. Against Montreal, Domi, with a wide-open look, tried to turn and pass back to Marner, but the play didn’t work. Later in the game, on a 2v1 with McMann, the pass was far more open than it was in his earlier chance, but he shot it anyway (it almost trickled through the goalie).
Domi has yet to score through 16 games and has just 20 shots on net. He’s on a 10-game pointless streak. All of this comes despite steady PP2 time and playing just under 15 minutes per night, including more than enough time with Marner and Nylander. I think the lack of production—and no goals yet—is starting to cloud some of Domi’s decision-making on scoring chances.
– It didn’t get much attention, but I liked how Simon Benoit walked the line prior to Conor Timmins’ goal before turning and facing the net in a shooting position. It forced both Habs defenders to respect him before dishing it over to Timmins. It’s a very small thing, but credibility with the puck in that situation gave Timmins just a little extra time. When Timmins fanned on his initial shot, he had enough time to grab the puck, make a play, and score.
It wasn’t a big, skilled play by any means, but Benoit did make a play in the offensive zone, which is something he needs to continue to work on. In the playoffs last spring, he recorded seven shots in seven games and ripped a one-timer off the bar in Boston. He is showing the odd sign of asserting himself more offensively (he has two points through 16 games after notching five all of last season), but his shots-per-game rates are actually down so far this season. His offensive-zone starts dipping from 38.14% to 25.93% is definitely a contributing factor, but there are still some promising flashes.
It’s important to at least be competent on the offensive-zone blue line, especially for a team trying to generate more offense from the point, particularly at playoff time.
Quotes
“We are generating pretty good five-on-five chances. I want to see us get back there. I think we are very capable of it.
I call it hard offense. It is not about making cute plays or risky plays. It is about hard offense, recovering pucks, recovering rebounds, point shots with traffic, and things like that.
We have to get back to that. We can be better than what we are, but as I always say, in these low-event games, we are not beating ourselves. We are staying patient. That is important—not trying to open it up, make a risky play at a bad time, or turn a puck over.
We just have to be focused on that. I know it is difficult at times because guys want to get scoring chances and want to score, and I want them to do the same, but you have to do it the right way.”
– Craig Berube on the team’s 5v5 offense
For a team that traditionally hasn’t produced offensively in the playoffs, this is what it’s really going to be about. Can they grind for offense when the game tightens up? It’s boring now, but they need to build up to it.
“I just don’t think we’re shooting ourselves in the foot. We’ve been playing some teams with some very serious firepower up front and with their back end joining, so I think we’ve done a good job with putting pucks in good areas, staying above, trying to just be smart with our play, and trying to read off them. I think we’ve done a good job. We got to continue doing it.”
– Mitch Marner on beating the Habs and the three-game winning streak without Auston Matthews
It’s noteworthy that both Marner and Berube mentioned that the team was not beating itself. This was a big concern last season, especially against better opponents. The Bruins swept them in the regular season and eliminated them in the first round of the playoffs, and a big issue in many of those games was the Bruins simply hanging back and waiting for the Leafs to make mistakes before capitalizing on them.
The team seems very aware of it this year and is conscious of mitigating risky plays through the neutral zone, whether it’s not trying to beat players 1v1 as much or rip as many cross-ice passes. On breakouts, if they don’t have a play, they are far more likely to put it off the glass and out.
“It’s been a while since I’ve played in an everyday role. I’m just really enjoying staying present in the moment.”
– Connor Timmins after scoring his first goal of the season against Montreal
Last season, Conor Timmins had an opportunity to assert himself as an everyday player. He contracted mono, effectively ending any chance he’d have of becoming a regular, given it happened in the second half of the season. He didn’t have enough credibility to enter the playoff lineup once healthy, and the Leafs added reinforcements.
This is Timmins’ third season in Toronto, and he’s only played 64 games. I’ve always wondered what he’d look like as an everyday player, and so far, the answer is… pretty good. When the puck is on his stick, good things generally happen.
He can rip clean outlet passes to the middle of the ice, and he’s buying into what’s required defensively and isn’t forcing plays that aren’t there, which were two notable question marks in his game. He’s been able to handle aggressive forecheck, too, which really threw him off in previous years (in part because he wouldn’t play for long stretches).
I am curious to see what Timmins looks like some 40-50+ games into the season.
Tweets of the Week
Maple Leafs score multiple PP goals for the 5th straight regular season game without Auston Matthews in the lineup
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) November 10, 2024
The Leafs’ record without Matthews, especially this season, isn’t particularly meaningful to me. They played two bad teams (Detroit and Montreal) and a reeling team in Boston. Two of those teams should probably be looking for new head coaches before American Thanksgiving. The other should be seriously discussing what their GM has done, given how long he has been there.
But the power play is a different story. This has certainly caught my eye. Five straight multi-goal games on the power play without Matthews is absolutely noteworthy and worthy of discussion.
What’s happening here? A few things stand out.
The first is the entries with William Nylander and Mitch Marner. You would think it would be awkward between two righties, as the Leafs like to have the left-handed Auston Matthews play pitch and catch with either the right-handed Nylander or Marner. It is fair to wonder if those are their two best options on the entry. Matthews isn’t bad at it by any means, but he has regularly skated through the middle and automatically bumped the puck to Tavares on the wall, even as opposing PKs sat on it. It happened all playoffs last spring, too.
Montreal is significantly worse than Boston, but on Nylander’s goal, for example, David Savard had already turned to the wall to cover Knies before Nylander even did anything. Instead of forcing it, Nylander simply said thanks for the space:
The second part is the power play running through Marner on the half-wall, where he naturally moves around more to create space. Against the Red Wings, they scored a bit of a flukey goal as Marner tried a cross-ice pass that went off a stick and right to Tavares, who buried it. But the process there is something we used to see a lot—Marner circles up high and gets the puck going downhill, which puts pressure on the penalty kill and moves players out of their formation.
Matthews can’t easily catch a puck on his offside, and if he’s not one-timing the puck (which he’s doing less of this season), they aren’t getting much utility out of the spot compared to Marner catching the puck going downhill and moving around with regularity.
Even before Matthews got hurt, their one recent power-play goal was him standing still and feathering a pass through an entire penalty kill — a low-percentage play even for an elite player. Marner going downhill with speed opens up options, and he also uses the bumper spot more.
There are legitimate lessons to take away from this recent stretch on the PP without Matthews, even if some of it comes down to “the power play was due.”
Best and Worst Finishers this season by Goals Scored Above Expected – November 10 pic.twitter.com/Vkqw6Yxcrk
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) November 10, 2024
Nylander is shooting over 20 percent so far as a career 12.6 percent shooter. We know it will regress, but on the flip side, Matthews is right around the bottom. As long as he can get healthy — and stay that way — it will course correct at some point.
#LeafsForever John Tavares has enjoyed an effective start to this season pic.twitter.com/q5ZI0qDSBR
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) November 9, 2024
Other than when John Tavares was sick — as Berube noted, he lost roughly 10 pounds (plus the subsequent time it took for him to recover/get back up to speed) — Tavares has looked good so far this season. He’s getting tons of chances, and he’s clicking at nearly a point-per-game pace with 14 points in 15 games, including eight goals. In a down year last season, Tavares still produced 29 goals and 65 points. He’s clearly still productive.
But I don’t think that’s the question or concern. He’s clearly a good regular season 2C to this day. But the playoffs involve matchups against very good 2Cs. For Florida, it’s Sam Bennett. For Tampa Bay, it’s Anthony Cirelli. The Rangers have Vincent Trocheck. Last spring, the Leafs faced the Bruins, who had probably the worst center depth in the Eastern playoff bracket, and Tavares largely struggled to create/produce.
He’s only a year removed from scoring the Leafs’ biggest playoff goal in two decades, so he can contribute, but that second line looks just a notch below the other contenders unless Nylander goes nuclear.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. Without knowing the extent of the Max Pacioretty injury, I think his absence throws a wrench into any plan to spread the stars across three lines. I know it’s something we wrote about last week — and I’d do it while the team is healthy or there are more players in form offensively — but with Matthews soon eligible to return and Connor Dewar activated, I don’t think it helps the team, on the whole, to play Matthews with one of a one-point-in-14 games Nick Robertson or Pontus Holmberg, while Mitch Marner plays with the other. Matthews and Marner are stars, but it’s a big ask to prop up players who have combined for the same amount of points as Simon Benoit thus far.
It also doesn’t help that Max Domi is in the midst of a 10-game pointless streak despite moving up to the top line to play between a red-hot Marner and an emerging Matthew Knies. The trio has zero goals and 40 percent of shot attempts. With Matthews there, they are up 9-5 in goals and controlling 54 percent of shot attempts. I’d just reunite them at this point, given the other options.
2. On the second line, I think I’d start with what the Leafs did last game by moving up Bobby McMann. We’ve seen McMann enjoy success alongside Tavares and Nylander before, as he’s fast enough to keep up with Nylander, strong enough to be the primary forechecker, and has enough finishing ability if he does get an open look.
That said, I’d be pretty quick to rotate Robertson into the spot if McMann falters or even just for the odd offensive zone faceoff — in part to try to get Robertson going but also because he’s a bit more skilled/capable of snapping pucks around with Tavares and Nylander.
3. I think this leaves us with basically a “prove-it” third line with Holmberg, Domi, and Robertson. I’m not advocating for this line, but I think it’s the reality of the situation, and there are worse things they could do than stick three players not producing together and force them to figure it out. They will be sheltered and fed offensive opportunities against easier matchups.
Holmberg has generally played his best on the wing, and Domi and Robertson have shown chemistry together before. Eventually, Jarnkrok and Pacioretty will presumably return. The trade deadline will likely add depth. Holmberg and Robertson are two of the easiest players to remove from the starting 12 right now, and they are getting more than enough opportunity relative to their production to cement roster spots. At some point, they will have to break through, or they won’t be in the lineup.
4. I think I’m not particularly sold on this Morgan Rielly–Oliver Ekman-Larsson pairing. I liked OEL a lot better on the left side, where he was more involved and effective in the offensive zone. Some pucks have gotten by him on the right side in the offensive zone — par for the course for a player playing his off-side — and it’s not like he has a one-timer that he’s ripping to nullify the disadvantage here.
OEL has just two points in nine games since moving next to Rielly, and one of those points came when he happened to be on the left side. He’s pointless in his last six. The whole point of the pairing is that they provide offense. Otherwise, they’ve owned just 45 percent of the shot attempts together, although they’ve graded out better in goals (7-5) and expected goals. It’s not necessarily a bad pairing, but I don’t think it has been particularly good, either.
5. Ideally, I’d like to see a healthy Jani Hakanpaa alongside Rielly—the exact type of player Rielly has regularly played well with—and then OEL paired with Timmins in a real offensive-pairing role where both players are on their proper sides.
Of course, it’s a big ask for Hakanpaa to walk right back into this role, and he’ll likely have to work his way back up to speed. Still, when looking at the overall group, all things being equal, I would be trying to work toward those two pairings, along with the McCabe-Tanev shutdown pairing.
