MLHS’ Anthony Petrielli joined The Fan Morning Show to discuss the Maple Leafs’ forward depth, production from the defense, the rejigged D pairings in Washington, Conor Timmins’ strong start to the season, and John Tavares’ impressive first 17 games.
Petrielli on the Maple Leafs‘ ability to find another gear offensively when down in games:
Their ability to come back, score, and win games is very much to be determined. They did it last night in Washington, which was good, and it kind of calms things down ahead of a couple of days off before the game against the Oilers, which is going to be tough at the best of times, let alone if they’re without Matthews.
This is going to take months. They are transitioning to a different style of play. They are trying to do things a little bit differently. That is an acceptable way to approach things, just given how the last eight years have gone. They did need to try something different, and they are trying something different.
We have seen really high highs already and really low lows. They have had a couple of really bad losses already, but they’ve also had a couple of really, really exciting and promising wins. It is going to take time. They are not built to be the run-and-gun team that comes back and blows teams out of the water offensively.
Part of that is they are not getting some of the contributions they thought they would. Nick Robertson has not produced. Bobby McMann was excellent against Washington, but he hasn’t really been that so far this season. Maybe last night was a turning point; we have seen that from him before. Auston Matthews is not in the lineup. The power play was struggling. Matthews was not exactly on a 70-goal pace when he was in the lineup.
Some of this will course correct naturally, but they are not playing a game that is conducive to letting the offensive guys freely doing their things. That is naturally going to limit them.
Petrielli on the idea of spreading Matthews, Nylander, and Marner across three lines when healthy:
It makes sense, provided you have enough reasonable depth around it. If you look at last night’s lineup, it was not a good enough lineup from 1-12 up front. Alex Steeves and Pontus Holmberg are on the third line. You can’t and shouldn’t look at Marner and say, “Carry a player of this calibre.”
I think it is fair to say, “One of you is getting Calle Jarnkrok or Max Pacioretty.” Those are still solid players. Jarnkrok is a legitimate double-digit goal scorer year in and year out.
Right now, Robertson has one goal this season. Holmberg has yet to score. People are excited about Alex Steeves coming in as a mid-20s AHL scorer.
When they are healthy, they should spread it across three. I do think they have enough depth. Realistically, they are going to have to add at forward. It was clear before the season started, and it has just compounded since the season started. The question is how many at this point.
The entire mix of the bottom six just looks really bad.
Petrielli on whether Brad Treliving failed to shore up the forward group enough over the offseason:
I am happy that he prioritized defense and goaltending. There was a really good UFA class on defense. They needed to get two solid defensemen out of it, and they did that.
In net, Joseph Woll is really good. We saw it again against Washington, and we have seen glimpses of this season, as to be expected. He has also been hurt, which is to be expected. They needed to get a veteran hedge to protect against it.
They may have hit a home run in who they ended up signing with Anthony Stolarz, or at least, so far, they have. It is really, really early, but not trading for Markstrom or not spending a ton of money on a guy and still getting a quality goalie at a good price for the next two years is excellent work.
OEL and Tanev have been great fits.
Those had to be the priorities. The toughest misdiagnosis so far this season is with some of the guys we mentioned.
I don’t think the Leafs were looking at Nick Robertson and saying, “He is going to have one goal through October and a half of November.” He has played well at times — I believe he leads the team in drawn penalties, so there are some things there if you want to squint — but it is not good enough for a regular, everyday top-nine forward. I don’t think they expected Calle Jarnkrok to not play so far this season.
Those are little things, but they add up to a lack of contribution and depth. If Robertson was producing reasonably, Jarnkrok was healthy, and Matthews was playing like his normal self, they would look really, really good right now, I would imagine.
On whether the production from Rielly, OEL, and Timmins should be counted as “legitimate secondary scoring depth” or more as bonus production:
They are making a conscious effort to cycle it to the point and get bodies in front. They want point shots. Berube has said it a bunch of times. They want shots, traffic, and rebounds. To me, it is more than just gravy if one of the things you are trying to do on a shift-to-shift basis is get some shots out of these guys.
I think all three of Rielly, OEL, and Timmins are talented guys who are able to contribute to 5-10 goals, and if it is closer to 10 than 5, it is a reasonable contribution.
They are still sorting out what it looks like as a team with this general idea of generating a little more offense from the point. In previous years, we used to see the forwards pull high often, and it was often the forwards making the plays from the point. We still see it with Marner, and Nylander is never shy about carrying the puck at the blue line to see what happens. But there is a little bit more of an effort for Timmins to take a shot, Rielly to take a shot, or OEL to let one go. OEL came from Florida, and they did the same thing there.
You have to count them. The Leafs are trying to play that way now.
Petrielli on the decision to sit Simon Benoit and unite Morgan Rielly-Jani Hakanpaa in Washington:
For one, I think Timmins has been really good to the point where it wouldn’t have been justifiable to take him out of the lineup over Simon Benoit. I don’t think Simon Benoit has been bad — and he has been better in the last few weeks — but if you were to put them head-to-head, Timmins has outplayed him. Timmins has been pretty good on the penalty kill, and surprisingly, Benoit has been a little worse than Timmins on the PK. Timmins kind of pushed out Benoit.
If you look at it through three pairings, it makes sense to pair Rielly with Hakanpaa. We have seen Rielly have success with this type of player — Luke Schenn comes to mind as a very similar defensive defenseman who is physical and not particularly exciting with the puck, which Rielly can do most of.
It leaves them with more of an offensive pairing in OEL and Timmins, which also makes sense. Take the offensive zone shifts, and see what you can create while trying to limit them a little bit defensively.
OEL has been good — and is a good player — but there have been large stretches where he has been leading the defense in minutes, and I don’t think he is a “lead the defense in minutes” guy at this stage in his career. I think he would be the first to admit that, especially for a team that fancies itself as a contender. It has the positive effect of lowering his minutes.
The defense makes sense as best as possible this way if your goal is to keep McCabe and Tanev together.
On Conor Timmins as an early pleasant surprise/revelation for the Leafs:
He has been excellent. He always had good numbers under Sheldon Keefe. This is just an example of timing is everything, and sometimes, a new set of eyes provides a fresh perspective. That said, I don’t think Sheldon Keefe would necessarily be surprised that Timmins is playing well. Like all of us, I think he would be surprised that he has actually stayed healthy and in the lineup.
Last year, just before spring, Rielly was suspended, and the Leafs experienced a run of injuries on defense. Conor Timmins got mono. It was the definition of his career to that point. He had ample opportunity in front of his face to be an everyday player, and he could’ve easily come in and done this exact same thing at that point last year.
Last year, he had the great preseason, got hurt, missed a bunch of time, got mono, and missed a bunch of time. By the time he was healthy, it was playoff time. No one is inserting him in the playoff lineup with no track record and no games played under his belt.
You could see flashes of really good things from him, but he wasn’t stringing together games and providing what he needed to provide to the team. He is skilled. Last year, he scored a really nice goal against the Rangers where there was an offensive-zone faceoff win and he got it through traffic. At that point last season, he might’ve been the only defenseman on the team who could give them that outside of maybe Morgan Rielly. You could see how there would be a spot for him, but he just couldn’t stay in the lineup to clean up how he was playing defensively.
He has been a lot more competitive on the defensive side of the puck. Part of it is that he has been in the lineup and finally learning while playing everyday defense, which he hasn’t done for something like five years now. He is a talented guy who has all the tools. I am sure if we watched him practice, he would look amazing; he is big, can skate, and has a bomb. He finally has the games rolling to the point where he is rounding out the rest of what he needs to bring.
It actually reminds me of the first year with Mike Babcock when he had Rielly play on the penalty kill. He didn’t play offense at all. Babcock was like, “I am going to teach him how to be a defenseman.” That is what it feels like for Timmins. He is not playing on the power play. He is on the PK. He is rounding out his game.
Honestly, it is nice to see.
On whether John Tavares’ nine-goals-in-17-games start is sustainable:
I want to lean towards no. I don’t think he will be a 40+ goal scorer, but he should be a 30+ goal scorer.
Last year, in a “down year,” he had 29 goals and 65 points. I think that is his floor. It is sustainable in the sense that he should put 70+ points up and should score 30+, provided he stays healthy.
It’s interesting that he has made it known he wants to play on Team Canada. Good for him. I don’t think he is going to make the team, but good for him for coming out and making a statement about it.
He obviously scored the OT winner in Washington, but the first assist to Bobby McMann — Matt Roy is a really good defenseman, and he torched him. He straight-up torched him. It was excellent stuff by him.
He is a good player. The tough thing about him: Can he do it against Sam Bennett in a seven-game series? Can he do it against Anthony Cirelli in a seven-game series? Those are the guys the Leafs are going to need him to play against. It is not Brayden Point or Aleksander Barkov — that is what Matthews will need to do — but Tavares is going to have to match up against those other guys. It is an insanely difficult matchup, and it has been tough at times in the playoffs for him, just like everyone else on the team.
That is the bar. That is what they have to go through.
