It’s nice finally seeing a full slate of Maple Leafs games on the docket this week.
There will be lots to discuss as the week rolls along – and we will be all over it here at MLHS – but given the big week and month ahead, I wanted to skip the preamble and get right into an extended notes edition of the Leafs Notebook.
I plan to flesh out the various dynamics of splitting up Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner versus keeping them together, but I want to do it justice with a fully developed article. Look out for my analysis on the subject later this week.
Notes
– First, some kudos are in order. This Leafs team has been very good in the regular season for years now, but they’ve failed to break through in the playoffs. Naturally, it leads to lots of nitpicking (this column included) of little things that may translate to positive or negative outcomes in the playoffs.
This season, the Leafs have reached American Thanksgiving in first in the Atlantic Division by points percentage despite Auston Matthews missing nearly all of November, Joseph Woll’s injury absence to start the season, and at least five (!) other regular forwards missing time (concurrently at points).
It’s important to frame the Leafs’ start within the context of the league right now. Parity is super tight across the NHL, and the pressure has been dialed right up already in several big markets. The Bruins fired their coach. The Rangers notified the league that their captain and one of their all-time scorers are fair game to discuss in trade talks.
The Predators have more or less sunk their season after a huge summer spending spree, barring another 15-0-2 stretch like last season. The Islanders are under .500 25 games into the season after making the playoffs last season, unable to keep afloat amidst injuries like the Leafs did. Even Colorado has largely stayed in it because the West is so weak; the Avalanche are -12 in goal differential and have already made one trade as they battle adversity.
The Leafs have also battled adversity but have generally cruised through it to this point and set themselves up for success. There’s still a long, long way to go—twists and turns are inevitable—but some recognition has been earned.
– On Tanev’s goal against Tampa Bay, we saw the pros and cons of Pontus Holmberg playing in the top six all in one shift. Off the rush on the initial play, Tavares made a nice drop pass to Holmberg as the trailer, and he didn’t threaten in the high slot due to his inability to shoot. To his credit, Holmberg stuck with the play as Brayden Point collected the puck thinking there was time to circle the net and reset the play. Holmberg pursued him aggressively and created a turnover on the wall, where he helped win the battle, leading to Tanev’s goal.
Holmberg is a good worker and forechecker. He understands his purpose, which is an important part of filling the role successfully alongside star players – not everyone fully embraces the role of a forechecker who works the walls and goes to the net. Again, the question for Holmberg will be whether he can produce enough to justify sticking in the role, but he’s responsible defensively and adept at getting the puck back for star players.
I’m not making this comparison at all in terms of an actual player projection, but it reminds me of the very early years of Zach Hyman high in the Leafs’ lineup – he couldn’t shoot, he couldn’t finish, and offensive sequences died on his stick, but he worked hard and got the puck back for his linemates, so it clicked.
– From the start of Mathews missing time to his return, Matthew Knies has scored seven points in his last eight games. It’s nice to see that production rolling along even when he’s not playing with Matthews. He has carved out a role on the top power-play unit as a net-front presence, where he’s done a highly effective job of not just screening the goalie and winning battles in the crease but also tipping pucks.
Revisiting Knies’ 15-goal rookie season, there was only one goal that I’d consider a tip (it was against Ottawa; he scored another one against the Senators that was credited as a deflection, but he tried to jump out of the way of a Matthews shot and it grazed his skate in the process). He already has two tipped goals this season, plus the questionable disallowed goal against Washington.
I would like to see Knies shoot more, though. He has just eight shots in his past eight games.
– The player who has led the team in shots on net since Matthews went down? William Nylander, with a gaudy total of 41 in 10 games (leading to six goals and 12 points). He already has 83 shots on net and 15 goals this season. His 18.1 percent shooting percentage is well above his career average of 12.6 percent, so some regression is likely coming (remember when he went cold last season after signing his contract in January?). Still, he has a real chance to pass his previous career-high 40 goals.
– Mitch Marner has 17 points in his last 10 games and leads the team – not just the forwards – in time on ice per game at 21:39 in that time. As someone new falls injured seemingly every game, Marner and Nylander have been stars.
– That was as loud of a scream as you’ll hear in celebration of a 3-0 goal in November from Nick Robertson. That’s how hard of a run he’s had lately.
We mentioned him in the notes last week as a player who is doing things right but cannot buy one. Now he has one – and it was a beauty, too. I know there was a lot of thought that he used up his opportunities in November while the Leafs were injured, but the team has 15 games in 31 days coming up; they will need bodies, and there are still players missing through injury. Now, Robertson has finally scored. This upcoming month is the telling one for me.
– Chris Tanev’s goal brings the Leafs’ total goals by defensemen up to seven this season. Last season, the team’s defense scored 25 total. They currently rank 26th in the league in total goals by defensemen; only the Red Wings, Penguins, both NY teams, the Senators, and Blackhawks are worse.
There has been a lot of talk about getting pucks to the point and traffic in front, and while the Leafs are definitely more talented on the back end, it hasn’t led to much in terms of actual scoring from the point. Stunningly, Tanev has the third most points on the Leafs’ defense so far. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is on pace for the lowest points-per-game season of his career. Jake McCabe hasn’t scored yet and is on pace for the third-lowest points per game of his career. Conor Timmins has four points in 21 games.
They are defending exceptionally well as a unit, grading out high in all sorts of major indicators, but the way the Leafs want to play needs to include them chipping in offensively. They can give a lot more on this side of the puck.
– It was interesting to see the Leafs replace Holmberg with Connor Dewar against Tampa in the third period for defensive situations. Dewar has worked his way up into a role of note.
Quotes
“Toronto is the first place where I really felt at home. These fans, they’re crazy. They’re the most passionate fans in the world. I know how much those losses hurt, especially to Boston. But I hope they know it kills me, too. Fuck, man. It really does.
“I hope signing [the Leafs’ contract] was a clear message back that I want to be here. This is it. This is home.
“The city and the fans have always been so good to me. I think it’s because they know I’m right there with them. It’s why I love living downtown, stopping to talk, being surrounded by people. I want to feel connected, like we’re in it together.
“When it’s all said and done, I just want to be the guy that was on the team that won the Cup for us. Forget about everything else. That would be the only thing that would matter. That’s why I signed here. I want to win a championship more than anything.”
– William Nylander on being a Toronto Maple Leaf
By no means do I think William Nylander took a discount of any kind to stay in Toronto, but he did sign for eight years knowing the cap was going up (potentially drastically, too). He’s a gamer and loves this market’s bright lights. I have a lot of time for that.
“When you play in the #1 hole as he did his entire career, there are times when you conserve a little bit. You can’t be running around finishing every check. It is not a really big part of your game. He is playing two minutes on the top power play and playing against the other team’s best from game to game.
With us, he started in the top four because of injuries. He played with [Kulikov] at the end, and Kuli is a physical player. You also then play against more physical players — the third and fourth lines of other teams — so that is the way the game is played. He had no problem playing the game like that.
He was a hell of a defenseman before he got hurt. He is a hell of a defenseman now. He just had to get healthy and play.”
– Paul Maurice on OEL’s understated physicality
I really liked the first point from Maurice above. For eight straight seasons, Oliver Ekman-Larsson averaged between 23 and 25 minutes per night (!) in Arizona. When playing that much, a defenseman needs to conserve himself and pick and choose his spots, especially with their physical play. OEL isn’t picking and choosing his spots anymore.
“It was a tough situation. I kind of put myself in a tough scenario. I was just trying to put the puck in. You have to keep your head up. I am kind of upset it led me to getting hurt and missing a few games, but it happens in hockey. I am happy I am healthy now and can play.”
– Matthew Knies on the hit that sent him to the IR for a week
We discussed this on the most recent MLHS Podcast. Matthew Knies puts himself in vulnerable spots a little too often, but it generally doesn’t matter because he’s a truck. Against Boston in the playoffs, Charlie McAvoy got him with a few big hits. Obviously, Whitecloud lined him up, too. He needs to do a better job protecting himself, and it was good to hear him take the approach of learning a lesson from this.
Tweets of the Week
Steeves doesn’t require waivers. Alex Nylander does. https://t.co/WpeS027c3H
— luke fox (@lukefoxjukebox) November 30, 2024
Based on the lines the day before the Leafs played Tampa Bay, Craig Berube probably wanted Alex Steeves to stay on the fourth line, but then business factored into play. Steeves was up on an emergency recall, and it appears that the emergency situation alleviated when Matthews and Knies returned, so Steeves could be freely sent down.
Real deal…
Via @Sportlogiq https://t.co/OVy6Kq0r3a pic.twitter.com/XoFfeWyzYq— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) November 26, 2024
What a start John Tavares has had this season, with 10 goals and 21 points in 22 games. As the chart above indicates, he has been a menace winning battles and retrieving pucks. The Leafs are playing a bit of a slower style of hockey that’s really suiting Tavares so far.
Leafs in the month of November since 2016-17 after Matthews' arrival is 73-32-8. The past three years it's 31-6-5, including 8-3-1 this month.
— Lance Hornby 🇺🇦 (@sunhornby) December 1, 2024
It’s like clockwork with this group – they dominate in November. I’d be very careful not to make any long-term predictions about them yet. They look good – there are lots of promising things to be excited about – but at the end of the day, they have been excellent in November pretty well every season in this era.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. I think getting Oliver Ekman-Larsson back on the left side should be a priority. He hasn’t been effective on his off-side, and there’s no real shame in it – most defensemen aren’t particularly good at it at the NHL level.
Against Tampa Bay, OEL made a 360 pass at the blue line that went for a breakaway, and if Woll hadn’t bailed him out, it would have received much more scrutiny. On Tampa’s first goal of the game, he made a soft chip up the boards on his backhand; it took a deflection, Tampa recovered the puck, and Michael Eyssimont promptly one-timed it home. On his forehand, the puck goes off the glass and out.
With Rielly on the left, the pairing is getting outscored 8-9 at 5v5 and getting under 44 percent of the shot attempts despite starting faceoffs in the offensive zone 65% of the time. They should split them up and play both on the left side. The tough part is that Simon Benoit has played well since returning from a healthy scratch. Either they split up McCabe and Tanev, ask Benoit to play the right, or insert Hakanpaa.
2. If Jani Hakanpaa is healthy, I think he has to get into some games soon. There’s a balance to strike between getting his knee through the season and getting him up to game speed so he can be a useful player for them down the stretch and into the playoffs. The Leafs have played 23 games, and Hakanpaa has dressed for two, looking understandably rusty in the process.
The Leafs play a lot in December; I imagine they won’t stay fully healthy on defense for all 82 games, so he’s bound to make some appearances. But I’d like to see them rotate in some right-handed looks – partly because of the note above about Rielly and OEL. It would be nice to know if Hakanpaa can form a pairing alongside Rielly that’s similar to what Luke Schenn and Ilya Lyubushkin were able to provide.
3. It should go without saying, but as the Leafs get healthy, I think it’s not helpful to the team or player to play Nikita Grebenkin for seven minutes. He played 7:22 against Tampa and 7:12 against Utah. Against Florida, he played over 11 minutes as McMann left the game.
Those are Grebenkin’s last three games, and it’s ultimately no good for his development to keep this up long-term. He should be sent down as the team gets healthy, and so should Alex Nylander, simply because he hasn’t done anything to justify staying up.
The one call-up who is starting to prop himself up a bit, in my view, is Fraser Minten. At the very least, I’d like to evaluate him with better linemates. McMann would be a huge upgrade over Nylander and Grebenkin. So would Max Domi. If he heats up alongside Minten, Nick Robertson can be a difference-maker.
Minten is sound positionally and uses his size to protect and retrieve pucks. I don’t think he’s a playoff 3C solution come springtime, but I’d like to see what he shows with better linemates. It would be nice for the Leafs to see what their team looks like with a better third line in place in general.
4. If Domi and/or McMann can return this week, I think I’d like to see them flanking Minten as noted, but if their injuries drag longer than expected, I’d recall Alex Steeves. I thought he did his job on the fourth line and played a role as a forechecker and cycler. There was nothing flashy about it, but he gave the team dependable NHL-level shifts.
While I think Grebenkin can do it, too, he really shouldn’t be playing seven minutes per night. It’s more sensible to play Steeves in limited minutes as an older prospect who has spent years in the AHL. Compared to A. Nylander, Steeves gives the team more defensively and on the forecheck.
5. I think I’d like the five-forward power-play configuration to receive a long look. They only had one power-play attempt against Tampa; it was early in the game, and their spacing was off as they made multiple passes to areas where players weren’t. It’ll take a few games to roll, but everyone is in the right spot to succeed – Marner is really good up top, Nylander and Matthews can both shoot from the half-walls, Tavares is effective in the bumper, and Knies is excellent in front.
One point I’d add: Marner and Nylander should remain the two slingshot drop-pass recipients. They were really effective at it in Matthews’ absence, and I haven’t loved Matthews on the PP entries so far this season; he has skated a lot of pucks and passes into dead ends. Marner and Nylander have been more effective at taking the space available to them rather than simply making the pass to the wall on the entry no matter what.
