The Battle of Ontario is finally back.
Many fans are nostalgic about this matchup; it resurfaces great memories if you’re a Leafs supporter – myself included – and it’s hard not to think back fondly on those games and those teams. But these are different teams in a different era, so it’s time to analyze the 2025 Battle of Ontario matchup.
Let’s start with the five-on-five matchups (keep an eye out for a special teams article in the near future).
The Senators’ lines and five-on-five deployment
The Leafs’ bottom three forward lines are unclear at this point, so let’s start with the Senators’ lineup, which is all but locked in.
Lines at #Sens skate:
Tkachuk-Stützle-Giroux
Perron-Cozens-Batherson
Greig-Pinto-Amadio
Cousins-Gaudette-ZetterlundSanderson-Jensen
Chabot-Zub
Kleven-Matinpalo
Gilbert-HamonicUllmark
Forsberg— Claire Hanna (@clahanna) April 17, 2025
Here is the picture of the Senators’ line deployment:
The Tim Stutzle-centered line is fed offensive zone starts – Stutzle, in particular. He is their leading scorer, and they cater to his offense with the deployment. We can see Stutzle all alone in the upper-right quadrant of the player usage chart.
On the flip side, Shane Pinto is in the top left. Watching the Senators down the stretch, they quietly formed a pretty good matchup/identity line with Ridley Greig, Pinto, and Mike Amadio. Since the Four Nations, Greig is second among Senators forwards in time on ice per game, and Pinto is third. Over this period, Pinto led the Senators in goals.
If we stretch the sample further back, Pinto leads the team in goals since the Christmas break. The trio is starting under 30 percent of their shifts in the offensive zone this season, winning the expected goals metric, and is outscoring opponents 9-8 overall.
The skilled players will receive all the attention, but this is a significant line for the Senators, one they will look to match up against Auston Matthews’ line in a matchup that will be critical in deciding the series.
This brings us to the Dylan Cozens line (with David Perron and Drake Batherson) and the crux of the matchup decisions for the Leafs. It’s a reasonable line with three quality NHLers, but it hasn’t fully gelled – they’ve been outshot and outchanced – and they are treated as a bit of a hybrid between the Pinto line and the Stutzle line.
Essentially, the Senators have a top scoring/offensive line, a checking line, and an in-between unit. They also have a heavily-sheltered offensive fourth line with a 4C who scored 17 goals this season (Adam Gaudette), albeit only four in 47 games since Christmas.
The stats below depict how Ottawa’s top three lines grade out by the numbers. Keep in mind the fourth line has not played enough together to include any of their statistics.
| Line | TOI | Goal differential | CF% | xGF% | Ozone starts % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tkachuk - Stutzle - Giroux | 216:46 | 0 | 60.05 | 55.11 | 67.48 |
| Perron - Cozens - Batherson | 159:37 | +3 | 47.73 | 45.93 | 55.67 |
| Greig - Pinto - Amadio | 188:25 | +1 | 46.13 | 53.15 | 29.86 |
On defense, the Senators lean on their top shutdown pairing of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub. Sanderson was 13th among all skaters in time on ice per game this season and is a monster for Ottawa.
The Senators then run a more offensive top-four pairing in Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen (although Jensen will also move around a bit, similar to OEL in Toronto, and handle some defensive duties). Their sheltered bottom pairing of Kleven-Mantipalo shows some promise, but is also a very inexperienced duo; it’s the first full NHL season for both players, and Mantipalo only appeared in 40 games.
The Senators’ Cozens acquisition was critical; uniting Cozens with Batherson and Perron makes the Senators more of a three-line team compared to the Leafs, who are more of a two-line club with the potential for their bottom six to provide more than it has (we will get to the bottom six shortly).
The Leafs’ lines and five-on-five deployment
It’s not totally clear yet how three of the Leafs’ four forward lines will shake out. We know with certainty that the Knies-Matthews-Marner will be a trio, but beyond the top line, it’s anyone’s guess.
The Leafs suddenly united Domi-Tavares-Nylander with a few games to go in the season. Is this now a line for the playoffs? The same goes with the McMann-Holmberg-Robertson trio. Are the Leafs putting stock into a few games where they played Montreal on the second half of a back-to-back, a Carolina team that mailed it in all month, and a Buffalo team that didn’t exactly lay it on the line?
I’m not particularly sold on the second line as a good idea. On the one hand, it is a dangerous line when it has the puck. Domi is a legitimately good playmaker, and when the puck is on his stick, he can hold onto it and find teammates. On the other hand, the trio is an adventure without the puck; not a single player on the line is above average defensively.
Would the line produce enough to make up for any defensive shortcomings? In the playoffs, when space is at a premium, none of those three players could be considered a proper F1 forechecker. Domi can do it when he is engaged, but he has to do it every night in the playoffs, and he hasn’t shown consistency in this area through two full seasons with the team, although he has shown a sense of occasion/a gamer quality at times.
Ultimately, I still prefer Bobby McMann in the 2LW spot. He’s a strong forechecker and defends well, capable of getting pucks out of the Leafs’ end and into the offensive zone. The issue: If McMann is on the second line, what is left of the third line – Domi and Robertson with one of Laughton, Pacioretty, or Jarnkrok?
A healthy Max Pacioretty is a viable left wing option alongside Tavares and Nylander, allowing the Leafs to reunite the McMann – Domi – Robertson trio. On paper, at least, it would make sense all around.
Similarly, will the Leafs’ fourth line remain Lorentz-Laughton-Jarnkrok? They have looked good as expected, but it would mean David Kampf sits; Kampf isn’t going to play anywhere else higher in the lineup, and it’s unclear if the Leafs’ coaching staff would want to scratch a strong faceoff man and penalty killer if healthy.
Even if we don’t exactly know how the Leafs’ lines will shake out, it’s fair to suggest the deployment will look roughly like so:
- The Matthews line: Shade towards more offensive usage but trusted in all scenarios
- The Tavares line: Scoring line, but against tougher matchups
- The Third line: Sheltered scoring line
- The Fourth line: Checking/defensive start line
The Five-on-Five Matchups
Let’s start at the top, where there’s a potentially significant swing in the Leafs’ favour compared to the regular-season series.
The Leafs never ran the Knies-Matthews-Marner line against the Ottawa Senators for a full game this season. In the first game, Matthews didn’t play due to injury. In the second game, McMann skated with Matthews and Marner (and they scored the Leafs’ only goal of the night). The third meeting was the one time this season the Leafs spread out their top players across three lines.
It’s hard to overstate how significant this is when reflecting on the regular-season series: The Leafs’ top line is really good, outscoring opponents 35-23 this season, but the Senators never faced them.
In the two games Matthews did play against the Senators, Ottawa looked to match Shane Pinto against Matthews as much as possible. Pinto played 10 minutes against Matthews at five-on-five in Toronto. In Ottawa, it was 13:27.
It’s also possible the Leafs look at the Pinto line’s numbers of late and conclude that it’s the Senators’ top line in some ways. Pinto has been their leading scorer for over half the season now. They are playing a ton of minutes. Watching the Senators last week against the Habs in a big game for both teams, Pinto scored 28 seconds into the first period as the line set the tone for their team in a big win. Notably, the defenseman Pinto shares the ice the most with is Jake Sanderson, Ottawa’s top defenseman.
There’s a fair argument to suggest this is the line that stirs the drink for the Senators, even if Stutzle’s team-leading scoring and Tkachuk’s physicality will be factors. The Leafs could match Jake McCabe-Chris Tanev against Stutzle all night while pairing Morgan Rielly and Brandon Carlo with the Matthews line against the Pinto unit.
Were I the Leafs’ coaching staff, I’d look to get the Matthews unit on the ice head-to-head against Tim Stutzle and his line as much as possible. It’s a sheltered offensive line – it features their leading point getter (Stutzle) and goal scorer (Tkachuk), accordingly – and it started over 67 percent of its shifts in the offensive zone. At the same time, if the Leafs can get the McCabe and Tanev pairing on the ice with their checking line to effectively eat minutes against the Stutzle line, they are cooking with gas.
When it comes down to it, do the Leafs neutralize the Pinto line by making them play against a lesser Leafs line – thus mitigating their top attribute as a strong matchup line – or do they trust the Knies-Matthews-Marner to simply win the matchup?
It was years ago now, but it’s worth remembering that Sheldon Keefe never really moved the Matthews line away from the Phillip Danault matchup against Montreal. We all know how that turned out.
How the Leafs navigate the aforementioned matchup will create a domino effect for the rest of the deployments.
If the Leafs go head-to-head with Matthews against Stutzle, Tavares likely draws the Pinto matchup; the line plays so much for Ottawa, and it’s more of a traditional checking line than a scoring line. If Matthews goes head-to-head against the Pinto line, who will match up against the Stutzle line with their two best offensive forwards (Stutzle and Tkachuk)? We know McCabe-Tanev will face them as the Leafs’ shutdown defense pairing, so it’s possible the Leafs simply zone match around it; meaning, Tavares matches against them in neutral/offensive-zone faceoff situations, while Laughton or Kampf soak up the defensive starts.
Ultimately, the Leafs could end up in a yin-and-yang situation between the Tavares line and the checking line whereby they take on Cozens/Pinto/Stutzle matchups depending on the situation, while the Leafs go head-to-head with their sheltered third line (which would essentially be a fourth line, given how they’re deployed) against the Senators’ fourth line.
In turn, the Leafs can use their defense – which is deeper than Ottawa’s – to offset the matchups at forward. As noted, we know McCabe-Tanev will draw the Stutzle matchup. We know the Leafs coaching staff will look to Rielly for offensive starts to push for offense, which means he will play a healthy chunk of his shifts with the Matthews line. Despite OEL playing on the “third pairing,” we know he will play a lot more than a bottom-pairing defenseman and will move around depending on the matchups and score situation. The Leafs can trust any of their three defense pairings on paper against essentially any Senators line, save for perhaps the Stutzle line.
With that in mind, I’m expecting more zone deployment (certain lines starting in the offensive zone or defensive zone) from the Leafs while their defensive pairings match up. This is more likely at home, where they can pulse check all the matchups.
If the Leafs start with a middle six of Domi-Tavares-Nylander/McMann-Holmberg-Robertson, I would be surprised if it lasts very long. Players will likely move around in a hurry, especially as the series shifts from home to the road by Game 3 and Craig Berube has less control over the matchups.
The Leafs ultimately own the best line in this series. They can use them to do a lot of heavy lifting both ways, but they have to hold up their end of the bargain and produce. Getting shut down by Shane Pinto is a nonstarter for the Leafs’ success in the series. If Toronto wins the matchup straight up, it will really throw the Senators’ plans into disarray, and Ottawa would be in tough to survive it.
If the Leafs’ lines remain as they are, they will run two lines that can produce offensively (one more than the other). William Nylander will be the best forward on the ice in any secondary matchup and needs to take advantage of it. The Leafs will then run a pure defensive/checking line to soak up tough minutes with three proven veterans.
At home, I think it can work. The Leafs’ defense is deep with proven veterans, and they have excellent goaltending. Both of those elements greatly help their cause.
On the road, the Leafs’ coaching staff may need to balance it out more. Again, though, this is why the teams play 82 games – to determine who gets this advantage in the playoffs. The Leafs control the matchups and own the ultimate trump card in the Battle of Ontario (at least on paper). However, they need to get their three lines in order.
They have the pieces to do it, but they haven’t exactly found the right set of combinations to the point where fans can feel warm and fuzzy about each line. From the outside looking in, it’s hard to fully prescribe a solution without knowing the health situations of Pacioretty and Kampf. There’s some ambiguity at play, but the Leafs should be able to manage the five-on-five matchups in their favour either way.
