Feels good to win Game 1 of a series for once, eh?
For the first time in three years (and four series), the Toronto Maple Leafs have won Game 1 of a playoff series, and they did it in convincing fashion. After ugly blowouts in their playoff opener each of the last two years, this time it was the Leafs who put up a crooked number on their opponents to kick off the playoffs in a near-best-case performance. The power play roared, each member of the core five forwards contributed in meaningful fashion, and Anthony Stolarz looked comfortable in his first playoff start. Toronto leads the series over Ottawa 1-0.
Turning Points
Three big moments altered the trajectory of Game 1.
The first is the opening goal just over seven minutes into the game. The game had gotten off to a bit of a cagey start, with both sides engaging physically and taking some low-danger shots. That changed on a play that began deep in Toronto’s end with Steven Lorentz’s heavy play to hammer Drake Batherson and take the puck back, before making the first pass to help break it out of the zone. His linemates, Calle Järnkrok and Scott Laughton, skated in 2v2, with Järnkrok giving it to Laughton just inside the line. Laughton stopped up to wait for assistance to arrive and made a slick pass to the rushing Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who walked down broadway and rifled a shot under the glove of Linus Ullmark to open the scoring.
This was a particularly important play knowing the history of the Leafs in Game 1s during the Matthews/Marner era. Not only have they struggled to win them, but they have also struggled to start the games on time and score the first goal. Mitch Marner scored the first playoff goal of the era just over a minute into Game 1 of the 2017 series against Washington. Since then, the Leafs have scored the first goal of a series just once: in 2022 against Tampa Bay, when Jake Muzzin hammered a slapshot through traffic by Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Last year, John Beecher opened the scoring for Boston in the series just 2:26 into Game 1. In 2023, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare opened the scoring for Tampa in round one just 1:18 into Game 1. In the next round, Nick Cousins kicked it off for Florida at 9:25 into Game 1. Scoring the first goal finally allowed the Leafs to start on the front foot rather than playing from behind almost from the hop. It was even sweeter that it came from a depth source, with the checking line and third pair teaming up.
That goal asserted Toronto’s control over the game, but a sequence of events in the second period nearly threatened to change the game’s complexion entirely. After surrendering a goal to trim the lead to 2-1 in the later stages of the first period, the Leafs came out a little sloppy to start the second period and provided Ottawa with several opportunities to tie the game.
Morgan Rielly coughed up a brutal turnover at the offensive blue line, creating a breakaway situation for Brady Tkachuk, but Anthony Stolarz stood his ground and kept it out. Not long after, a counter rush by Ottawa against the Toronto top line led to a scrambled defensive zone coverage, and eventually, the puck landed on Shane Pinto’s stick all alone in front of Stolarz. Again, the big netminder made a huge save to keep the Leafs ahead.
Just 17 seconds later, Tim Stützle took an offensive zone penalty and put the Maple Leafs on the power play. Toronto needed only eight seconds for John Tavares to score his own rebound, and just like that, the Leafs were back ahead by two.
Fast forward a couple of minutes, and the Senators were beginning to unravel with penalties by Ridly Greig and Adam Gaudette, giving the Leafs a chunk of 5v3 time. Toronto pounced quickly again, with William Nylander striking right off the faceoff to put the Leafs up 4-1.
In a ~six-minute span in the early second period, we went from Ottawa generating several A+ chances to tie the game to Toronto leading by three and feeling like the result was in hand, barring a total collapse. Credit the hot power play of the Leafs, but most of all Stolarz, who gave up a bit of a shaky goal in the first period but found his best game when he needed it in the second period, buying the Leafs enough time to crack the game open on the man-advantage.
Finally, there was a brief moment in the third period where the Leafs might’ve wobbled. With “It Was 4-1” rattling around the minds of Leafs fans as they looked at the scoreboard, a flat opening to the third period featuring a completely uninspiring carryover power play gave way to a Senators goal 6v5 during a delayed penalty charged to Simon Benoit. Ridly Greig scored with 16 minutes still to play.
Before Leafs fans could sweat too much, the Leafs scored a dagger, coming just 45 seconds after the Ottawa goal. Following a rush and stop-up by Nick Robertson, Rielly’s shot from the point deflected off Matthew Highmore’s glove and fluttered by the glove of Linus Ullmark, who seemed to be floundering a bit in his net. With a three-goal lead restored, it was the final bell for Ottawa.
Notable Performances
Let’s start with the group that got the party started for the Leafs, the checking line of Scott Laughton, Calle Järnkrok, and Steven Lorentz. They sparked the Leafs with the early goal and generated positive shifts all game long. They were on for a goal against, but the primary culprit among skaters was a defenseman (Carlo’s turnover), and mostly, the goal fell at the feet of the netminder.
Among the four lines that started the game for the Leafs, this was the only one to out-attempt their opposition and win the xG battle, per Natural Stat Trick. It was fitting to see two Ontario natives in Laughton and Lorentz showing out in the return of the Battle of Ontario, and it’s hard not to look at this game and the end of the regular season and believe the Leafs have something cooking with this line, particularly after Lorentz and Laughton showed chemistry together down the stretch.
For all of the early consternation about the Laughton trade, he started his playoff campaign with a primary assist, a 58 percent game on the faceoff dot, took an off-setting roughing minor with Brady Tkachuk, and played over 15 minutes. Solid 200-foot play at center ice, some jam, PK ability, and some secondary scoring — all of the reasons the Leafs paid up to acquire Laughton were all plainly visible in Game 1.
The top line didn’t have its A game, but they did score a big goal and weren’t scored on the other direction. Credit Auston Matthews for the great stretch pass to spring Mitch Marner for the breakaway, and Marner, of course, deserves credit for a superb finish. The ice was tilted against the Leafs with those two plus Matthew Knies on the ice at five-on-five per Natural Stat Trick, but a chunk of it is attributable to score effects later in the game. Craig Berube was content to match them up against the Tkachuk/Stützle top line of Ottawa, avoiding the Pinto matchup, and the line ultimately came out ahead on the scoreboard. That said, a few more strong cycle shifts in the offensive zone will be on the wishlist for Game 2.
The middle six was a bit hit or miss. There were some moments for William Nylander at five-on-five, but Max Domi‘s presence on the second line with John Tavares sullied it a bit with some neutral-zone turnovers. Berube shuffled the lines mid-game, shifting Domi to 3C and Pontus Holmberg to 2LW, which at least reassembled a familiar, if somewhat flawed, third line with some proven offensive chemistry.
On defense, it was a really strong night from Oliver Ekman-Larsson in his return from injury. He got himself up into the rush and scored a big goal to open the game, fired four shots on goal in total, and the Leafs came out strongly ahead in his minutes (with a good chunk of them coming against Ottawa’s respectable Pinto line). Both were physically engaged throughout, particularly Simon Benoit. There was a section of the game when Benoit was fighting it a bit, including taking the delayed penalty that led to Ottawa’s 6v5 extra-attacker goal in the third period, but as a whole, this pairing passed the test in about 17 minutes of action.
Anthony Stolarz passed his first test as a playoff starter with flying colours, finishing with a 31/33 (.939) statline and his first postseason win. Stolarz more than made up for a first-period gaffe with the pivotal saves early in the second period, and the Leafs won the goaltending battle decisively, as Stolarz picked up a confidence-building win.
The Maple Leafs’ special teams owned the night. They finished the game 3/6 on the power play and struck quickly off Tavares’ faceoff wins for several of those goals. The Leafs made the Sens pay for some undisciplined penalties, and while there was one early-third-period PP that was subpar, the five-forward unit looked extremely confident and purposeful when inside the zone, dissecting the Ottawa diamond PK and exploiting the gaps available down low. The top unit moved the puck around confidently, created opportunities, and looked really dangerous.
The Leafs killed both off their own penalties, with Holmberg and Järnkrok ragging the puck nicely on each one. Ottawa created one good look on each PP, but Stolarz was there each time, including one fabulous stick save on Fabian Zetterlund from the slot.
Storylines for Game 2
1. The Playoff Experience Gap. In a bit of a cross-sport comparison, I was watching the NBA Playoffs on Saturday, and the young Detroit Pistons took an eight-point lead into the fourth quarter of Game 1 against the more veteran New York Knicks. The Pistons were surging after an excellent third quarter and were clearly feeling good about their position. However, the moment the fourth quarter arrived, the Knicks turned their defensive intensity way up and fed off the home crowd, blitzing Detroit and forcing turnovers, while the young Pistons looked like deer in headlights. The Pistons gave up a 21-0 run and were buried under an avalanche of energy from the Knicks, who dominated the fourth quarter to win the game. The Knicks knew what it took to finish off tight games in playoff basketball, and the Pistons, with many key players playing in their first playoff game, were not expecting the energy level and intensity to be so high in the fourth quarter.
I don’t want to suggest the situation between the Leafs and Senators in this game was as pronounced, but it was in the same ballpark in terms of how playoff experience (or lack thereof) influenced this game. Ottawa played an immature game, taking a litany of terrible penalties away from the play or in the offensive zone that exposed a wobbly penalty kill to a Toronto power play that has been excellent in the second half. It cost them the game. The Senators looked like a team that thought they knew what playoff hockey would be like and how to play it, without the experience to actually navigate the reality of it.
Tim Stützle threw nine hits in this one. His high in the regular season? Five. Captain Brady Tkachuk, also in his first playoff game, threw seven hits, a mark he matched just seven times in the regular season. Drake Batherson, yet another first-timer, threw six hits, something he did just three times in the regular season. They tried to match the physicality the playoffs demand, but they couldn’t keep their emotions and discipline in check.
Their coach’s postgame comments also seemed a bit lackluster, complaining about refereeing and downplaying major issues with the team’s PK. Green himself has fairly limited playoff coaching experience, with just one prior appearance and 17 total games coached. Craig Berube, on the other hand, has coached in five different playoffs and over 50 games (including a Cup ring). Berube even threw in a bit of gamesmanship at the end of his post-game presser, instructing the media to call the league about the Ridly Greig cross-check call.
The Maple Leafs seemed very comfortable in this game compared to their counterparts. Whether the Senators can mature and adjust quickly or not will be a major determining factor in whether this series is a short or long one.
2. Toronto’s excellent power play. The power play won the Leafs the game. It delivered two huge goals just when they needed a shot in the arm to give them control of momentum and a solid lead, and they added one more PPG just for good measure. The Leafs scored more PPGs in a single game than they did in seven last year against the Bruins. Toronto’s painful struggles with the power play in the playoffs over the years are well litigated by now, and some began to have creeping fear as the playoffs approached, with the team scoring just one PPG in April’s regular season games.
The process still looked quite sharp in those regular-season games, even if the puck wasn’t going in due to poor bounces/finishing or great goaltending. But the Maple Leafs deserved no benefit of the doubt, given their history with power plays in the playoffs. They earned some credibility in Game 1 with the performance on the power play, but whether they can keep it going in Game 2 will be just as important. If the Senators cannot come up with an answer to slow down Toronto’s power play, it is very difficult to see a team that struggles to score five-on-five like Ottawa finding a path to winning this series.
3. Playoff Ullmark? Some commentators picked up on Linus Ullmark’s playoff history before the series, but those who didn’t surely will begin discussing it now after an 18/24 performance in Game 1.
In the 2022 playoffs for Boston (his first), Ullmark was bombed in the opening two games of the series by Carolina and was pulled after losing both with an .860 SV%. Jeremy Swayman replaced him and finished the series, taking it to seven games. In 2023, Ullmark’s Vezina-winning season, he played the first six games for Boston, going 3-3 with an .896 SV% against the massive underdog Panthers. He was pulled again in favor of Swayman, who lost Game 7, completing the stunning upset. Last year, the Bruins planned to rotate Ullmark and Swayman against the Leafs, but after Swayman won his first two starts and Ullmark was not as strong and lost his (31/34, .912), they decided to ride Swayman the rest of the way to a series victory.
After Game 1 of this series, Ullmark’s career SV% clip in the playoffs is .877, and his record is 3-7. The Senators traded a first-round pick for Ullmark so he could stabilize their regular-season goaltending and finally break their playoff drought, which he accomplished. He was fine in the regular season (25-14-3, .909) and is a good goalie, all things considered. Ullmark produced several great starts to nail down a playoff berth (a 48/49 effort against Detroit in March stands out), but his performance in playoff games across his career has officially reached the level of some concern.
Ullmark wasn’t outright terrible in Game 1, but he wasn’t good, and he didn’t come up with any big saves of note. In the simplest depiction of the gap between the two goalies, Stolarz stopped his breakaway against while Ullmark was easily solved. If Ullmark doesn’t have a solid outing in Game 2, the concern level will reach crisis mode in Ottawa. Unlike in Toronto, there isn’t a confidence-inspiring second option available to the Senators.
4. Lineup changes. I doubt Craig Berube will change his lineup personnel after a win to open a playoff series, but the performance of the second line with Max Domi on it was not convincing. The defense pairs are almost certainly not changing, and neither is the Matthews-led top line or the Laughton-led checking line. Anthony Stolarz will also remain in net. But the other two forward lines should be under examination.
Pontus Holmberg could remain with Tavares and Nylander — quite possible, knowing Berube’s affinity for the player — or Bobby McMann could jump up to play with Nylander and Tavares, a combination that saw L2 in its best form this season. However, that would create the same challenge the Leafs faced down the stretch: who plays with Domi and Robertson to keep that line functional?
McMann has always been the strongest fit next to Tavares and Nylander, and Max Pacioretty also gave the Leafs good minutes on the unit at points earlier in the season, but would Berube really consider a personnel swap after this Game 1 result? Nick Robertson deserves to remain in the lineup, and Holmberg is a Berube favourite.
5. Can the Leafs actually go up 2-0 in a series? The Maple Leafs have won Game 1, a rare occurrence during this era. It’s only happened two times previously, in 2019 and 2022, the Leafs were subsequently flattened in Game 2. To find the last time the Maple Leafs established a 2-0 series lead, we have to rewind over 20 years to the 2002 first-round series against the Islanders. The Leafs went up 2-0 in the series and ultimately only won home games in the series, claiming Games 1, 2, 5, and 7 (all without Mats Sundin) to advance to the second round.
In other words, Matthew Knies was not born the last time the Maple Leafs went up 2-0 in a series. It’s time for that to change, and if the Leafs can put together two strong efforts back-to-back to open a series and defend home ice with two wins (remember, they went 6-14 at home under Sheldon Keefe in the playoffs), it would be the first sign that something might be different this year.
