The Maple Leafs still hold a 3-2 series lead — they are technically in the driver’s seat — but it sure doesn’t feel like it as their top players are falling quiet, the power play has become a liability again, and they are beginning to chase each game.
Suddenly, the demons in their heads will need to be tangled with.
The big story is the Leafs‘ stars because it’s always going to be about their stars. This is how the team is built structurally. They play huge minutes, and the coaching staff asks them to do everything. Not only did they not produce, but Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner were on for every goal against. Specifically, Matthews was directly responsible for multiple goals against. If he doesn’t figure it out, the Leafs will be in trouble. They’re not going to win despite Matthews.
Your game in 10:
1. The matchup intentions for this game were declared immediately as the Senators started the Shane Pinto line and the Leafs responded with the Scott Laughton line rather than the Auston Matthews unit. This is how the Leafs approached the first two games before the series swung to Ottawa, so it’s clear how they want to play this.
Matchups aside, though, the Leafs actually looked quite nervous to start the game, if we’re honest. By my count, at least five Leafs fanned on pucks in the early going, including a Bobby McMann chance when he came out from behind the net, an almost breakaway by William Nylander (that Max Domi followed-up and fanned on), John Tavares on a full breakaway that he fanned on, Jake McCabe on the point (he then shot it right into shinpads), and Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the point.
It’s uncharacteristic of the Leafs to be fighting the puck so much, and it felt like it was the byproduct of nerves early on. The Senators had a near goal early on as well as a David Perron one-timer in the slot struck the post and deflected behind Anthony Stolarz, who tried to avoid hitting it into his own net, before Morgan Rielly beat Drake Batherson to the puck and jammed it back under Stolarz to clear it off the line.
2. The Leafs did create the next good look in the game as OEL found Calle Jarnkrok in the slot for a shot-pass that Jarnkrok deflected, giving Ullmark some trouble. Jarnkrok played a really good period in general, getting in on the forecheck, deflecting the aforementioned puck, and also throwing a notable hit on Fabian Zetterlund on a good backcheck. His line with Scott Laughton and Steven Lorentz was one of the Leafs’ best at creating good zone time and checking well in the first period.
The top line had their first notable contribution with just over five minutes left in the period when they drew a penalty following a sequence where they cut through the neutral zone, gained the blue line with possession, and Matthews tried slicing to the net. It led to a deflected puck, and Knies was shoved from behind, leading to a power play.
The top unit came out with everyone in their usual place and zipped the puck around, creating a few flurries in front and launching six shots on net in just under a minute before Knies took a slashing penalty while battling for a rebound. It was a shame to cut the power play short as it was buzzing.
3. The Sens scored power-play goals in three straight games coming into this one, so even on an abbreviated penalty kill, there was some uneasiness. The Leafs were up to the task, though.
Matthews and Marner started it off before Laughton and Lorentz did a really good job as the second pair out. Lorentz aggressively challenged Tim Stutzle on the wall, leading to a turnover and 3v2 rush that Brandon Carlo joined the other way.
Following the good kill, Morgan Rielly took a penalty, and the Leafs were right back at it. It’s the type of penalty that’s crept into the Leafs’ game lately, i.e., unnecessary. Chabot came down off the rush and took a shot that deflected off Rielly and into the corner; when they came together for it, Rielly crosschecked Chabot, getting him on the side and sending him flying into the boards. Chabot stayed down afterward, and Travis Green was calling for a five-minute major (which would have been nonsense).
On the kill, Marner made a really good play on the wall to create a turnover and dump it down, and again the Leafs generally stuck with Matthews-Marner and Laughton-Lorentz, with Jarnkrok and Knies seeing some spot duty. The most notable play on the penalty kill came on a rebound that kicked out to where Chris Tanev and Batherson were battling with an empty net in front of them. Tanev won the battle. If he lost it, it was a tap-in and a Senators lead. Instead, Tanev simply overpowered Batherson, leading to a clear and a still-scoreless game to end the opening frame.
4. The second period started with an early flurry as both teams generated some looks. The big one for the Leafs was a clear 2v1 for Matthews and Knies; with the defenseman selling out on the pass, it left Matthews with a clear 1v1 look against Ullmark, and he shot it wide.
Think about that for a second: This is the best goal scorer in the league since he entered it eight years ago, he was given the shot, and he didn’t even force the goalie to make a save. There was tons of net available on the side he targeted, too.
There’s really not much more to write about Matthews other than what we have written basically all season. Any sort of injury he may be playing through is honestly irrelevant at this point. He needs to bear down and start finishing. He has one goal in the series, and it was basically an empty-netter off an unreal Marner pass that caught Ullmark looking the wrong way. He has yet to beat Ullmark clean.
On the other side, the Senators quickly went on a 2v1, but Tanev deflected the pass away, continuing an unreal game for him. Laughton almost found Jarnkrok in alone a few shifts later, but by and large, the Leafs’ chances were a lot of almosts and not much “Ullmark made a fantastic save” to this point.
5. For the third straight game, the Senators opened the scoring. Thomas Chabot’s 1-0 goal also marked the first time the Matthews line has been on for a goal against at five-on-five in the series.
On the goal, the faceoff went to the half-wall, where McCabe didn’t win it as the puck went back to the point. Marner tried to challenge Chabot on the point, but Giroux ran a pick on him, giving Chabot some extra time to walk the line and look for his shot. With Tkachuk screening in front, Chabot got it through, and Stolarz tried to stand tall, but it nicked off his shoulder and went in.
The Senators scored first in each of the past two games, and with them scoring first for a third straight time, we saw why the first goal was so important: the energy was sucked out of the building, and you could feel the nerves setting in with an “Oh no, it’s happening” type of vibe.
6. In a second period where the Leafs gave up a goal under four minutes into it and went to a power play, they recorded just six shots on net. They drew the power play on a good Bobby McMann shift to create zone time, leading to a Jarnkrok offensive-zone change where he drew a high stick.
It was a good shift for McMann, who continues to find himself on a fourth line that is not creating much of anything so that Pontus Holmberg can play on the second line. McMann scored more goals than Holmberg had points this season.
On the aforementioned power play, the Leafs weren’t nearly as aggressive hunting their shot as they were in the first period, although Tavares had a good look in front and couldn’t get enough on his shot. The coaching staff pulled the top unit off, and the second unit actually played more than the top unit on this power play, although they did absolutely nothing with it.
7. The Leafs had very little going on for most of the second period and, really, the game in general. They finally showed signs of life with just under five minutes in the middle frame when Rielly joined the rush and tried to walk in and shoot against two defenders; it got deflected and bounced right to Marner, who was trailing the play and got a clean 1v1 look on Ullmark out of it. Marner attempted to go backhand-forehand and over the shortside shoulder — a move he loves — but he was denied this time.
The Leafs built on the chance and started tilting the ice, although the Senators did counter with a good rebound chance where Zetterlund missed a lot of net under heavy checking. The Leafs swung back the other way after Stolarz made a great stretch pass on a bad change by the Senators, leading to a borderline 2v0 with Lorentz and Jarnkrok. With a checker taking away the pass, Lorentz elected for the breakaway but took way too long to make his move and had the puck knocked off his stick while staring down an empty net.
At the end of the period, Tavares applied a nice tip on a Tanev shot that almost squeezed through Ullmark. By the time the second ended, slot-driving chances were 24-10 for the Leafs, and Toronto had almost three minutes more of offensive-zone possession, but the Sens recorded five more shot attempts at five-on-five.
8. In the third period, the Senators created the best early chance, but Stolarz made a huge save on a Tkachuk one-timer right in the slot. It was not exactly a great start by the Leafs.
Berube responded by moving up Domi to L2 with Tavares and Nylander. As if there wasn’t enough evidence this line doesn’t work in the first few games of this series, it continued to struggle and was hemmed in at one point, achieving the rare feat of the opposing team executing a far-side line change while maintaining possession.
The Leafs were the beneficiaries of what should have been a break when Ridly Greig took a stupid penalty on Marner, handing the Leafs a power play to try to tie the game. Instead, they gave up their second shorthanded goal in as many games.
Stolarz had no chance on the 2v1 caused by Matthews floating the absolute softest pass imaginable to the point. It has no place in playoff hockey. At no point did he make a serious or hard driving play in this game, and at no point did he even dominate a single shift, let alone a period or — God forbid — a game.
I’m not going to focus on the goal here. I’m going to focus on Matthews, who needs to earn his keep at some point. There’s no getting around this. He’s the highest-paid player in the league this season, and he’s playing this first round like he’s an $9 million player (producing some points, decent defensively, etc.). The bar is set at elite, and he’s not even close. He is supposed to drive this bus, and instead, he’s making this kind of play in the third period of a one-goal game in a series-clinching opportunity.
9. There’s also no getting around this:
Maple Leafs are now 0 for their last 30 PP opportunities in potential series-clinching games
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) April 30, 2025
What else is there to say?
10. The Senators ended with two empty-netters, and while the Leafs created some chances — Matthews hit a post, Knies had a decent jam play in front — it never felt close. The Leafs launched just nine shots on net in the third period.
Berube still doesn’t know what to do with L2, even though he had the answer for most of the season: McMann. You can argue McMann is not playing well — he isn’t — but he can shoot, unlike Holmberg, and he can forecheck, unlike Domi. Those two traits qualify him for the spot, in part because that’s how incredibly low the bar is.
Even at the end of the game, the Leafs pulled their goalie down 3-0 with the second unit on, and Laughton wasn’t on it; Holmberg was. On principle alone, what are we doing here?
Max Pacioretty started well in his first game and hasn’t been a factor since; Nick Robertson should likely draw back in. At least he can shoot the puck in the net on occasion.
We will see if the coaching staff switches Stolarz for Joseph Woll; you could probably understand going either way on this one.
There will be so much talk about Linus Ullmark and his shutout after this game, but as we’ve said playoff after playoff, how many great saves did he really need to make? In all situations, the expected goals were 3.5 for the Senators and 2.38 for the Leafs. I wasn’t sitting there thinking Ullmark was lights out in the Ottawa net; I was sitting there thinking what we always think in the playoffs: The Leafs’ stars aren’t stepping up.
That’s the only story here. And it’s going to be the story to watch again in Game 6. There’s nothing else to talk about.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
