As expected, the defending champs will not go down without a fight. 

The Panthers absolutely needed to win this game, and by the slimmest of margins, they pulled it off. The Leafs conceded three goals that went in off their own defensemen, and Joseph Woll let in a pure stinker on one of the others.

At the end of it all, the Leafs were still right there with a real chance to win. They just couldn’t get it over the line tonight. There’s promise in that, but they will need to make a few adjustments ahead of G4 and grab a road win to maintain a definitive advantage in the series.

Your game in 10:

1.   Back home for the first time in this series, the Panthers swapped three players out of their lineup and debuted a new fourth line. In came Jonah Gadjovich, AJ Greer, and Tomas Nosek to replace Jesper Boqvist, Mackie Samoskevich, and Nico Sturm. Paul Maurice also flipped Evan Rodrigues and Carter Verhaeghe. In essence, the Panthers changed three of their four lines in search of a spark.

Yet it was the Leafs who came out flying and scored on the game’s first shift. Auston Matthews cleaned out the faceoff before Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies combined to win a battle at center ice that almost sprung Matthews on a breakaway; the puck just got past him, but Matthews hunted it down and attempted a strong wrap-around move. Knies just missed the rebound, and the puck got cleared to the point, where Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe worked it across the line, buying time for Marner to pull high, which he is so effective at. Marner took a good shot through traffic with two Leafs and four players in front. It deflected, hit the crossbar, and Knies won the battle for the rebound to shoot it into the empty net.

That’s Knies’ fifth goal of the playoffs, second on the team behind William Nylander. More importantly, it was a fantastic start for the Leafs when we expected the Panthers to come out flying.

2.   The Leafs didn’t stop there. They played with great pace to begin the game throughout their lineup and recorded four of the first five shots on net, ultimately launching 18 shot attempts on net at five-on-five in the period, compared to Florida’s 15, while outshooting them 13-10 in total. Just under six minutes into the period, the Leafs doubled their lead.

A big part of this series is Florida’s aggressive forecheck and the Leafs’ ability to break it. On this one, the Leafs did just that, as Florida sent the puck in deep and Chris Tanev took a hard hit — which was right on the numbers, by the way, except Tanev didn’t toss his stick and milk it like Evan Rodrigues in G2, and we won’t have to hear Paul Maurice whine about it for 48 hours.

The Tanev pass went to Jake McCabe, who hit Nylander in the middle of the ice, and the Leafs were off on a 3v2. Nylander skated right down the middle, drawing in Seth Jones, which opened up a passing lane to dish it to Max Pacioretty up the wall. Pacioretty made a great cross-ice pass to Tavares, who had a look all alone on a sprawling Sergei Bobrovsky and made a great decision to take advantage of Bobrovsky going down on the play; he went around the net for a wrap-around finish. It’s a good breakout and a great finish, and everything was coming up Leafs early.

3.   As the period and game progressed, Maurice tried switching the matchups by using Lundell vs. Matthews. On the first shift of this matchup, Matthews had a great scoring chance courtesy of Knies’ 360 pass, and Maurice immediately put Barkov back out against Matthews for the defensive-zone draw.

On the subsequent shift, the Panthers cut the lead in half on a goal full of bad bounces. As the Panthers chipped the puck in deep, Morgan Rielly went back with pressure on him and a bouncing puck to play, so he tried to whack a far-side rim, which was the right play with the Panthers overloading the quick-up. Rielly’s initial attempt hit the ref, so the puck then got sent back up the short side, where the Panthers had numbers. Matthews supported and tried to chip it out, but it bounced off Rodrigues right to Reinhart in the slot. Reinhart made a nice touch to Barkov, and while down low, Barkov tried to pass it back to Reinhart; Rielly tried to break it up, but it deflected off Rielly and in.

A calamity of bad bounces gave Florida life on the scoreboard.

4.   Florida started the period by matching Lundell against Matthews, which they did for the majority of the rest of the game. The Panthers got off to a better start and were applying pressure early, but they took a bad penalty in the Leafs’ end during their pressure, handing the Leafs’ power play another opportunity to break through.

Just 17 seconds into the power play, following a Leafs faceoff win, they worked it around to the point; the reason they were able to work it around is that the Leafs adjusted a little on the power play. They run a 1-3-1 power play — everyone knows this — but with Florida’s pressure, they need to counter it by working the puck down low. The Leafs set up three players down low to accomplish that goal in this game, and the Panthers were forced to retreat as a result.

Look at this formation before the goal:

When Marner took possession of the puck at the point, the Leafs shifted back to a 1-3-1, and Marner made a great shot/pass to Tavares for a high tip. Tavares made no mistake as Knies provided traffic in front. It’s a huge power-play goal for this top unit.

5.   The Leafs’ two-goal lead didn’t even last three minutes.

The first Florida goal came after three straight icings in a row by the Leafs’ fourth line. Max Domi possessed the puck with time and space but elected to flip a pass that went too far. Similarly, Brandon Carlo had time and space but flipped it too far. It was begging for something bad to happen, and eventually, something did.

Maurice sent out Lundell for the first icing, then went with Barkov after the next one, and Barkov won the draw following the third Leaf icing. The Panthers worked it around the walls against a gassed Toronto unit, and when the puck came up the boards, Ekblad made a nice play off the wall to find Rodrigues in space. Rodrigues had enough time to turn and pick out the option he wanted; he was clearly looking to put it where the traffic was toward the back post, and it worked out. The puck deflected, laid in the crease momentarily, and Carlo tried to pull it off the line with a broken stick — he did get a piece of it — but a sprawling Woll couldn’t prevent it from trickling in.

The play was reviewed momentarily, but it was clearly a goal. The three icings and the inability to make a line change were the biggest issues. Both Panthers’ goals went in off Leafs players by this point.

6.   Just a minute and four seconds later, the Panthers scored again.

Marner was on the ice for an extended shift and was visibly gassed by the end of it, leading to the goal. On a breakout, Marner collected it on the wall with Aaron Ekblad pinching down; he chipped it up the wall by him, and it just made it over the blue line. Benoit challenged the puck, and Tavares supported the battle, but it seemed like Marner assumed his teammates would win the battle and began to skate it off. That’s not advisable in the second period on the long change; Marner has to support the puck until it’s definitive.

To make matters worse, the Leafs lost the battle, and Tkachuk sprung Bennett, who was now on a 2v1. He made a nice play to sell the shot, then pull it to his backhand and pass it around OEL to Carter Verhaeghe for a wide-open net.

It was a poor decision from Marner, and a battle the Leafs should win, let alone with Tavares supporting it from the defensive side instead of the offensive side of the puck.

After two periods, the Leafs won just 25% of their battles. A 75/25 split in the opposition’s favour will lead to scoring chances and goals against like this. Craig Berube used his timeout afterward, and it did settle the team down a bit.

7.   In the next 10 minutes, there wasn’t a ton going on in the game; just two shots on goal were recorded, both by the Leafs. The Leafs generated some decent shifts courtesy of the Laughton line, and they went to another power play. The PP created zone time as Florida seemed to back off the pressure a bit, but they didn’t record a shot on net and couldn’t find a way through. The best chance on the power play might have been the Panthers’ at the other end when Brad Marchand nearly torched Rielly.

The Leafs started running OEL with Tanev and McCabe with Benoit, probably in response to Maurice switching his matchups. With Lundell against the Matthews line and Barkov against the Tavares line, the Leafs appeared to try to divide and conquer a bit. There was a chess match underway with the matchups, as the Leafs clearly want to go head-to-head and the Panthers seemingly want to avoid it.

Amidst all of that, the Leafs got their top line out against the Panthers’ fourth line, and it was Florida’s fourth line that scored. On a simple 2v2 rush, the Panthers dropped it, drove the net, and took a shot. The goal was originally credited to the shooter Tomas Nosek, but it has since been changed to Jonah Gadjovich, who was driving the net.

Even with a deflection, it’s a really bad goal to give up by Woll. It’s simply can’t go in and falls under the backbreaker category, but still, the Leafs were down by one after a fairly mediocre second, and still very much had a chance to win.

8.     The third period started with bad bounces in front of both nets. The first stemmed from Woll not playing the puck properly off a dump-in. He’s battled real issues playing the puck, something we noted after the Marchand goal in G2. He’s not making proper reads or stopping hard rims, let alone contributing with his outlets. Anthony Stolarz is legitimately solid in those areas, and the absence has been felt.

Bobrovsky also had an awkward moment in front when Pacioretty high-flipped a puck to the net, and Tavares got a deflection on it. 

In the third period, McMann moved up to L2, Tanev left the game at one point, and Rielly bailed out Carlo by breaking up a 2v1. There wasn’t a ton going on, but just over halfway through the period, the Leafs’ top line started to ramp up the pressure and tied the game.

Toward the end of a good shift in the Panthers’ end, it appeared Florida snuffed out the pressure when Marchand had the puck with some time and space to clear it. Marchand thought he could skate with it, but Knies dug in and caught him from behind, lifting his stick and winning a battle to chip it down low to Matthews. The Leafs’ captain immediately tried to center it in front with both Marner and Rielly in the area; the pass missed, but it made it to the boards, where Rielly got to it first.

Rielly made a smart play to pull it to his forehand and throw a shot on net with some traffic in front. The shot was saved, but the rebound bounced right off Seth Jones in front and into the net for Rielly’s fourth playoff goal already.

Rielly also scored four in 2023 when the Leafs made it to the second round. Later in the period, he ripped one off the crossbar off the rush, nearly giving the Leafs the lead.

With 1:47 left, Pacioretty took an untimely offensive-zone tripping penalty, but the Leafs killed it off. Matthews dove to get a puck out, Tanev made a nice block, and Calle Jarnkrok won a battle at the line in a big late kill for the Leafs.

9.   The Leafs came out strong in overtime, controlling play and generally dictating the game. They weren’t visibly nervous and stuck to their game, outshooting the Panthers 7-3 in the first 12 minutes of extra time and creating the two best chances to win the game before Florida eventually scored.

The first was Nylander batting down a pass to himself for a mini-breakaway, where he tried to shoot far side. The second was another mini-breakaway of sorts for Knies, but it came at the end of his shift, and he settled for a backhand from some distance away.

In overtime, the Leafs were basically a three-line team. Holmberg was up with Tavares and Nylander, the fourth line of McMann-Domi-Pacioretty couldn’t be trusted (they got dominated on one shift and avoided an icing by mere inches). The Leafs’ top players were tired, and eventually, on the Florida winner, Holmberg-Tavares-Nylander were caught out on a long shift.

The Panthers started working it around like they were on a power play before Marchand collected the puck at the top of the circle on one side and skated across the zone. No Leaf had the legs to stick with Marchand, who skated until he identified a shooting lane, flung one to the net, and it deflected into the Leaf net off Rielly for the second time in this game.

10.    The matchups shifted in this game. Matthews played over 10 minutes against Lundell and just over five against Barkov. Barkov spent most of his night against Tavares instead; this is what we thought Maurice would do at home, and the Leafs will need to adjust. The Leafs put their defense in a blender when attempting to combat it.

The Leafs clearly didn’t trust their fourth line on the road, and Florida tried to attack it as much as possible. Their only defensive zone draws came after icing it repeatedly, leading to a goal against.

On defense, it was a fairly even spread in ice time. Rielly played the most at 28:01, while Benoit was the low mark at 20:29. Some of it, at both ends, was the result of Tanev missing some time; Berube blamed an equipment issue after the game, but I’m not convinced he’s telling the truth. Tanev was crushed multiple times in the game, and while I admire his willingness to hold onto the puck and take a hit to make a play, he probably has to pick and choose his spots a little more.

Behind all the skaters, Woll came up with a few good moments, but if he’s going to be the starter for the foreseeable future, he will need a big game at some point. This wasn’t it.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights w/ Joe Bowen & Jim Ralph

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