Just like that, it’s now a best-of-three.
The Leafs went to Florida up 2-0, but the Panthers held serve at home. This game specifically was arguably Toronto’s worst of the playoffs so far, which is naturally a cause for concern. The Leafs will need to take the extra day to regroup, enjoy some home cooking, and dig in for Game 5.
Your game in 10:
1. After Game 3, Paul Maurice blathered on about Aleksander Barkov and Auston Matthews needing to go best-on-best to decide the outcome of the game, but on the opening draw, it was once again Anton Lundell matched up against the Matthews line. It’s pretty clear at this point that Maurice wants to avoid the Matthews-Barkov matchup; instead, he wants Barkov against the John Tavares line to shut down William Nylander. Maurice will likely continue to suggest otherwise, but the proof is in the pudding.
As the game got underway, there was not much to the first three minutes. All the lines touched the ice, and the Leafs didn’t get off to a hot start as they did in two of the past three, but nothing was really happening either way until a needless Max Domi penalty — not the first time we’ve said that in these playoffs. It was a lazy stick penalty at the end of his shift after dumping it in.
The Panthers spent their whole power play in the Leafs‘ end, but the Leafs got in shooting lanes to deny them looks — including yet another really good block by Chris Tanev — and Joseph Woll looked much more comfortable. After the kill, the Leafs generated a good response shift by L2.
Interestingly, out of the commercial break, the Leafs sent out a Laughton-Domi-Jarnkrok line for an offensive-zone faceoff. They didn’t accomplish anything, but it’s an interesting wrinkle to clock there.
The Leafs then took their second penalty of the period, this time a boarding call on Bobby McMann. Of all the calls in the first period, this is the one I truly hated. You would need three or four hands to count all the times Florida has thrown that exact type of hit (or worse) in the series. If it’s getting consistently called, I can live with it, but the officials haven’t called it, and then they randomly did once and never again.
On the kill, Woll made a big save on a cross-ice play to Evan Rodrigues, and the Leafs escaped unscathed again. After the penalty, McCabe made a great play to find Matthews at the backdoor, where he shot it right into Sergei Bobrovsky’s glove. It’s the type of chance we’ve come to expect him to bury, but it was completely snuffed out.
2. The Leafs’ parade to the penalty box continued with a hooking call on Matthew Knies. I agree that Knies’ stick lift got into the hands, and it likely was a penalty. What I didn’t like: On the subsequent penalty kill, Matthews was hooked in the same way, and it went uncalled. Matthews actually turned back and looked at the ref when it happened, something he rarely does.
The Leafs again did well to kill off the penalty, but with two seconds left, Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot the puck over the glass. This one was hard to argue, but the refs met and discussed it, so they clearly didn’t know it when it happened, and it was a lengthy discussion, so it doesn’t exactly sit right.
However, it was the right call, and the Panthers finally broke through on the resulting power play. The big piece of this goal was the faceoff. When it’s a 5v3 for a few seconds, the critical play is the draw, which Scott Laughton lost cleanly to Barkov. The Panthers immediately shot it on goal, Woll made the first save, and it bounced around the wall. While Knies was racing back into the play from the box, the Leafs were still in a 5v3, and the Panthers went cross-ice for a one-timer goal at the backdoor.
3. There’s not much to write about the first period other than the obvious: Penalties were the story. I hated the call on McMann, mainly because Florida has been getting away with that type of hit all series. The rest of them are relatively fair game, but they need to be called both ways (namely, Knies’ hook on the hands).
Shots were 15-4 for the Panthers as expected, but a few silver linings: The Leafs’ PK kept them in the game, and Woll was really good. The only other highlight in the period, besides Woll, was Simon Benoit lining up and absolutely running over Sam Reinhart behind the net on one of the Toronto PKs.
The Leafs getting out of the period down only 1-0 was a positive on the whole, all things considered. The question is whether they could regroup afterward and get back to playing their game.
4. The second period wasn’t exactly a continuation of the first period. The Leafs weren’t in the box, but it wasn’t exactly a great start, either. The first few lines didn’t do much of anything, and then the Domi line once again got caught on the ice for multiple icings and scoring chances against. This time, the Leafs survived it, but it’s becoming a theme where his line is regularly dominated.
The Leafs then went to their first of three power plays in the period. While Florida definitely benefited from power play calls in the first, the Leafs got their calls in the second and routinely came up empty. In fact, their power play got worse as the period went along.
The first power play was actually quite promising; they were in the zone the whole time, Matthews had a good one-timer setup that just missed, and they won multiple battles to keep plays alive. On the other two Leafs power plays in the period, Florida created the most dangerous chances. The Leafs were outshot 3-1 on those two power plays and got pressured into a penalty. Woll made a huge glove save on Sam Reinhart in the high slot, although the Leafs did get one good look where Rielly attempted to find Domi at the backdoor rather than Nylander teed up for a one-timer on the half-wall.
You knew some makeup calls would come this period, and they did; the third penalty on Florida was rather weak. The Leafs not only didn’t cash in, but they also didn’t generate much of anything and were actively outplayed for large stretches of their own power plays.
5. At five-on-five, the Leafs generated absolutely nothing. High-danger shot attempts were 6-2 for the Panthers in the second, and shot attempts were 20-9. Their power play did nothing and was outplayed, and they were also outplayed at five-on-five.
The only reason it was 1-0 after the second? Woll, who made several really good saves to keep the game within reach. At the end of the second period, Sportsnet recorded the percentage of puck battles won as 60/40 for Florida, which frankly flatters the Leafs, who won essentially no battles. Their forecheck was nonexistent, while the Panthers repeatedly got pucks through and deep along the walls.
The Panthers are clearly focused on not giving the Leafs opportunities in transition anymore, and that means the Leafs need to actually put pucks deep, forecheck, and work for the puck. The Leafs weren’t even close. Their best five-on-five chance of the period was a leaky puck thrown up the middle of the ice from the Toronto end that Nylander turned into a semi-breakaway.
6. The Leafs got off to a decent start in the third period and almost connected on a slot pass to Nylander that just bounced over his stick. Berube tried flipping Nylander and Marner in the top six, and Knies got a good look on the backhand in the slot, but the pass by Marner handcuffed him a bit; he wasn’t able to get all he wanted on it when it was an empty net at first.
About five minutes into the period, OEL hit Evan Rodrigues, except Rodrigues didn’t have the puck. The play was assessed as a five-minute major at first as Rodrigues lay on the ice, selling it as something he wasn’t (which is why he got called for embellishment earlier in the series — the officials know his reputation). After review, it was correctly reduced to a two-minute interference minor.
The Leafs again produced a good kill, and perhaps most importantly, they had their best chance of the entire period to tie the game. Knies broke in on a clear breakaway and snapped it just over the crossbar. Knies has been money on breakaways all season, but on this one, he just missed the net.
7. About halfway through the period, the Panthers parked the bus. They hung back in a neutral-zone trap and forced the Leafs to try to go through them. The Leafs couldn’t do it.
The transition goals are great — and Leafs had a few chances there again — but at some point, they have to simply flip a puck in deep and go get it back. The Leafs either refused or couldn’t, depending on who was on the ice.
On one sequence where they refused to get it in deep, the Panthers countered after a turnover in the neutral zone. Nylander wanted to skate it through the neutral zone but had nowhere to go, so he turned back and tried to feed a pass to Tavares with Ekblad draped all over him at the offensive blue line. Ekblad stepped up and made a good play to create the turnover, but Tavares had absolutely nothing he could do on the play, even if he did receive that pass. Standing still with three Panthers in front of him, what could Tavares possibly do there in the best-case scenario? The Leafs needed to get pucks in deep and forecheck.
After the turnover, Sam Bennett sprang up the ice for a 2v1 on the counterattack, and Jake McCabe, who was caught, played it extremely poorly. Tanev literally pointed at him to take the puck carrier (Bennett) while Tanev took the pass away, but McCabe skated to cover the same player Tanev was already covering (Verhaeghe), giving Bennett a ton of time to cut back and finish all alone against Woll. Can’t blame the goalie on this one.
8. The game was effectively over at this point, as the idea of the Leafs scoring two down the stretch was unfathomable on this night. Again, they couldn’t sustain any real pressure. There will be a lot of talk about Sergei Bobrovsky finding his game — and maybe he uses this shutout as a confidence builder — but the Leafs didn’t force him to make many good saves. Trailing the entire third period, the Leafs created three high-danger shot attempts.
Florida’s defensemen were boxing out the Leafs, and the Leafs forwards either couldn’t or wouldn’t win space in front. On one play, Ekblad completely moved McMann away from the front of the net. The final shot count in the game was 37-23 for Florida, although it’s important to note that the power play count was 6-3 in the Panthers’ favour.
9. The end of the game was notable. With it all but over, Craig Berube sent out Domi, and it was clear what was about to happen. He took a big run at Barkov and smoked him from behind into the wall, sparking a melee. Matthew Tkachuk was leaning over the Panthers’ bench, yelling at the Leafs bench that he would be running Nylander in return. The ref broke up a potential Marchand-McMann fight amid the chaos.
Frankly, I liked it from the Leafs. The Panthers have thrown cheap shots all series, and they had just thoroughly snuffed out the Leafs in the game. Sending some sort of message that this isn’t over and the team will fight back hopefully gives the Leafs some sort of spark ahead of Game 5.
Sometimes, a team has to get it out of their system before they move on, and I’m not sure the Leafs had fully gotten over the Stolarz injury to this point. But it’s hard to envision him re-entering the series, and the Leafs have to move on.
10. I was fine with Berube sticking with the same lineup for this game; the Leafs played well enough to win in Game 3, and there was no reason to panic. There is still no reason to panic, but they didn’t play well in this game. Woll was far and away their best player, and I would struggle to name a single Leaf who actively played well in this game besides the goalie. Did some players have moments? Sure, they did. Did anyone dial it up from puck drop throughout the game? No, other than the goalie.
The lack of depth contributions is starting to hurt the Leafs. Pontus Holmberg and Steven Lorentz both played under 10 minutes, and neither has scored a goal yet this playoffs. Calle Jarnkrok and Bobby McMann played under 11 minutes each, and neither of them has a playoff goal yet, either. Scott Laughton played under 12 and also hasn’t scored a goal yet.
It’s very difficult when half the forward group isn’t producing, and the Leafs can’t continue to count on their defense core to make up for it as they did against Ottawa. These depth forwards need to get to the net and get their sweaters dirty around the crease. It’s fair to suggest both Nick Robertson and David Kampf should enter the lineup at home, where Berube can manage it with last change. Maurice made a similar move, changing his entire fourth line when down 0-2 in the series.
Of course, a lot of the scrutiny will surround Auston Matthews, who has just two goals in 10 playoff games so far. He recorded three shots on net in this one, but he’s barely noticeable on a shift-to-shift basis, and it’s not good enough from the highest-paid player in the league. The salary rightfully comes with high expectations. His play hasn’t been poor — he’s top 10 in playoff points — but he needs to find another level. Frankly, after this game, the whole team does.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
