Ahead of free agency, the Maple Leafs and pending RFA Matthew Knies have come to terms on a six-year contract extension worth an annual cap value of $7.75 million.
This is the latest contract business that Brad Treliving was able to wrap up relatively cleanly. Treliving signed Auston Matthews to an extension in September ahead of the final season of his previous contract. William Nylander signed halfway through the 2023-24 season as well and didn’t come close to the final deadline, let alone the open market. This past season, Jake McCabe re-upped on a contract that is already well below market value, and John Tavares just signed a hometown discount on Friday. For all the narratives about the stress or pressure of playing in Toronto, all of their players clearly want to stay and negotiate deals to make it work — except one, of course.
This season, Knies enjoyed a breakout campaign, notching 29 goals and 58 points in 78 games, as he averaged 18:31 on the Leafs‘ top line, carved out a role as a penalty killer, and asserted himself as a proper net-front player on the power play. In the playoffs, he chipped in seven points in 13 games and clearly played hurt in the final two games as he tried to gut it out for the team.
A few days ago, JJ Peterka signed a five-year extension worth $7.7 million in Utah. Peterka produced 10 more points than Knies this season and has a better history of production (he scored 28 goals in 2023-24), but he doesn’t bring the same rare power forward elements of Knies; plus, Peterka has been particularly poor defensively to date. The Peterka deal somewhat set the standard for Knies’ contract, and while Knies will make a hair more, he’s also signed for one extra year, which is significant.
The contract makes Knies a UFA after its completion and buys only one UFA year in the process, just like the six-year contract Marner just finished. As we saw with the recent Peterka extension — and Quinton Byfield’s five-year extension last summer — this seems to be the avenue more and more players are taking. Buying one UFA year is at least something, but it’s not the pure slam dunk of signing a max eight-year deal. With the cap rising the way it is, getting a player like Knies signed from age 22-30 would have been a huge win.
Unlike the Marner deal, though, the Leafs aren’t paying max dollar while going a few years shy of max term. It’s a good salary already based on Knies’ play right this second, assuming he replicates pushing for 30 goals again, along with his power play and penalty killing contributions, and he’ll surely play on the top line in 2025-26 at this rate, too.
Now, there is the matter of Knies shooting 19% last season. While his game is predicated on generating offense at the front of the net — there is reason to believe Knies will continue to cash in at an above-average rate, given he’s often banging home rebounds and deflections — it’s fair to question if this is sustainable. But even with a slight drop back to mid-20s goal-scoring territory, if Knies can help carry play and develop more physicality as he ages into his prime, he is easily worth the money.
It’s also fair to flag that Knies has battled a few head injuries already in his career, in incidents involving Sam Bennett when Knies was a rookie in the playoffs, and then Zach Whitecloud during the 2024-25 regular season. He was also hurt in collisions with Alexey Marchenko and Niko Mikkola. Those are all big men, and Knies has only missed a total of six regular-season games over two years, so it’s nothing drastic. Still, any history of head injuries is always a concern.
It should also be noted that Knies has been excellent in the playoffs so far in his career. He has scored an overtime winner, was in front of the net on the Tavares series winner against Tampa Bay, scored a couple of other big/impressive goals, and has asserted himself physically in the postseason. He’s a foundational player who plays a style that the team, under Treliving and Craig Berube, only wants more of. Locking Knies down for the foreseeable future, without any drama, is ultimately an important piece of business to conclude.
When the salary cap rises to $113.5 million in a few years, Knies will take up around 6.8% of the Leafs‘ salary cap, and he’ll be just 25 years old.
In the more immediate future, the Knies contract, coupled with the extension John Tavares just signed, will add up to $12.13 million. Last year, the two combined to make $11.925 million. It’s the difference of a couple hundred thousand with the cap rising and the cap space opened up by Marner’s departure, as the team seeks to (hopefully) add two quality forwards.
The Leafs now have nine forwards, seven defensemen, and two goalies under contract with just a shade over $14.7 million of cap space to fill out three roster spots plus at least one extra forward. As usual, those numbers include the contract of David Kampf, who should be much easier to trade on July 1, once the Leafs pay his bonus.
Depending on who Brad Treliving can add in the next few days/weeks, this should be a significantly deeper forward group than we’ve seen in years in Toronto. Signing Knies now avoids any further offer sheet drama — of which there never was any real concern, beyond the media narratives (Knies wanted to stay, and the Leafs had ample cap space). Plus, Brad Treliving now enters free agency with his two major internal contracts completed and a full understanding of the salary-cap situation in place while navigating the UFA and trade markets. A GM can conduct business in the grey area, but it’s ideal to have the cost certainty of the major contracts set in stone, rather than working in hypotheticals.
