Selling and resetting is fast becoming the only logical path forward for the Maple Leafs

A few weeks ago, we wrote that the Maple Leafs’ two-plus week stretch — featuring a gruelling four-game road trip, followed by a difficult five-game homestand — would likely decide their fate for the 2025-26 season. Unfortunately for the Leafs, it’s not been a positive outcome.

Following an admirable enough 2-1-1 road trip, the Leafs returned home and essentially laid an egg. They are 0-3-1 during the current homestand, and three of those games were basically decided in the first period. The Leafs would need to beat the surging Buffalo Sabres — a tall task in and of itself — just to grab three of 10 points at home.

There is now a sizeable five-point gap between the Leafs and the final wildcard spot and two additional teams between them and the final spot, one of whom is a surging Florida Panthers, who just returned Matthew Tkachuk and Brad Marchand to their lineup — hardly a team the Leafs can easily leapfrog, and the Panthers aren’t even in a playoff spot right now themselves.

After the Leafs dismissed Marc Savard, the power play heated up and the team went on a run, but they didn’t beat anyone in a playoff spot during their 7-0-2 stretch, other than the Pittsburgh Penguins. Against the other two current playoff opponents from the Leafs’ winning nine-game stretch, Toronto lost both games in overtime (to the Islanders and the Red Wings).

Now, the Leafs are facing a stretch of stronger competition, and they haven’t come close to good enough results. There are some fair caveats to note — namely, the Leafs played all of those games without their leading scorer, William Nylander (who is leading them in scoring by a significant points-per-game margin, as Auston Matthews continues to hover well below the Mendoza line as the second-highest-paid player in the league). Plus, their best defenseman has essentially missed the entire season (Chris Tanev). Those are two significant losses that would crater most teams in the league. 

In the big picture, it’s fair to be mindful of those facts, even if it’s completely reasonable to question if the Leafs can win much of anything with Auston Matthews and William Nylander as their two best players. That should really be an offseason conversation, though. Both players have full no-movement clauses and aren’t showing any signs of wanting out right now. This isn’t a Quinn Hughes situation, whereby the Leafs can move them whenever and wherever they want. We will park those conversations for now and just focus on the decisions to be made between now and the trade deadline. 

To make the playoffs in the East, the Leafs are likely looking at a 96-ish point cutoff (the Bruins are pacing closer to 98 points, but I’m generously accounting for a bit of regression). That means the Leafs need 39 points or so in their remaining 30 games, or a record of something like 17-8-5. The Leafs play 11 games between now and March 6: Buffalo, Seattle, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Tampa Bay, Florida, Ottawa, Philadelphia, New Jersey, and the Rangers. Short of winning at least eight of those games to put themselves in a reasonable position, the organization has to be honest about its prospects this season, eventually. 

By honest, I mean: The team is probably not making the playoffs, and management must act accordingly, i.e., selling. If this recent dip in play provides any benefit, it’s that the Leafs are making it pretty obvious which direction to take. The worst place to live is the mushy middle: sit on your hands, miss the playoffs, and watch assets walk out the door for free. 

Restocking the cupboards

The Leafs currently own third, fifth, and sixth-round draft picks in the upcoming 2026 draft. Next season, they don’t own their first-round pick, either (provided they don’t retain either pick, given the protection on them). For good measure, the organization doesn’t own a third in next year’s draft. EliteProspects also lists the Toronto Marlies as the second-oldest team in the AHL.

The Leafs can restock those cupboards in the next month. The easiest example to cite is the 2024-25 Boston Bruins, who made the following moves:

That’s essentially an entire draft class and three players who are not just currently helping the Bruins this season but are serving as top-nine forwards for them.

The Leafs are well-positioned to replicate the Bruins’ 2025 haul. Of course, it’s not always easy to pull this off and ultimately net out ahead. A few years earlier, the Blues attempted a similar fire sale, one Leafs fans will know well, given Toronto acquired Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari that season:

The Blues scenario, to me, is a disaster. They traded away five good-to-really good NHL players with what, exactly, to show for it? In 2023, they drafted Otto Stenberg, who looks like a promising player, and that’s basically the sum total of it so far. The Blues went on a miracle run to make the playoffs last season, only to get bounced in the first round, and now they are back in the mediocre middle, likely to sell yet again. All of their 2023 maneuvering added up to essentially nothing.

There’s a lesson here about identifying the right players to move and acquiring quality players in return, not just draft picks. For the Blues to trade away all of those quality players and not fetch even one useful player in return is underwhelming, to say the least.

For the Leafs, it’s about identifying which players they want to move forward with while resetting their cupboards, prospects, and support players. 

Staying or Going: The Forwards

We won’t touch the Matthews or Nylander conversations for now — they are staying anyway, until either wants to move, as we all know. John Tavares is in a similar boat.  Matthew Knies and Easton Cowan aren’t on the move any time soon, either.

I’d argue I’d like to keep Nick Robertson around as well, given he has a motor, is still just 24, and his game has shown continued growth. It would also be nice to see Jacob Quillan given the opportunity to prove whether he represents NHL value to the organization heading into next season. Craig Berube giving him 6:15 of ice time, which included some defensive-zone draws and a minute of ice time after the empty netter to end the game, is a waste of everyone’s time. 

Otherwise, the Leafs should take calls on every other forward, with one caveat that there is a world where it makes more sense to extend Bobby McMann and/or Scott Laughton. They will need to weigh potential returns against potential contracts for those players, but I do like both and think they could be part of the solution. Beyond those two, every other forward is on the table without a second thought, and perhaps more importantly, there are a few players management should actively be looking to move out as additions by subtraction. 

The forwards signed beyond this season include Max Domi, Steven Lorentz, Nic Roy, and Dakota Joshua. Matias Maccelli is an RFA, and if they don’t want to keep him, it is preferable to acquire something in return rather than letting him walk for free by leaving him unqualified.

Domi, in particular, is an obvious candidate to move. He has unequivocally shown he can’t play anywhere in the lineup unless he’s paired with Matthews, and what’s the payoff there? The Leafs have still been outscored this season when the two are on the ice together at five-on-five (16-18). Is this the bar for the top line now? When Domi isn’t on the ice with Matthews, the Leafs have been outscored a ridiculous 8-23, and Domi has essentially been unplayable. The team can’t have a lineup spot held hostage, only to achieve mediocre results when Domi receives top-line placement. It’s not about returning an asset; this is purely a case of addition by subtraction, and there is also a possibility the team would still return something useful for Domi, given some of his playoff production and perceived ability to play center.

Lorentz and Roy are both solid veterans, and there are no issues with bringing either back. That said, both are effective penalty killers, bring size, wear Cup rings, and can chip in some offense. Those types of assets — especially Roy, who can play center — are in demand at the trade deadline, especially when they’re signed to economical contracts. Can the Leafs drum up a good return for either of them? Keeping both Joshua and Lorentz on the team again next season seems rather redundant, and it’s hard to imagine they can move Joshua’s contract right now. The team likely doesn’t need to keep both Laughton and Roy, either, for that matter.

Staying or Going: The Defense

Defense is where the real value could be gleaned for the Maple Leafs.

OEL is enjoying an excellent season, and essentially every playoff team should show interest in him. First and foremost, he is a really good player. He can play either side, chip in offensively, and eat minutes. He has also won a Cup. His $3.5 million AAV is minuscule relative to his on-ice contributions, and his 16-team NTC is not too big a hurdle to navigate. Short of an excellent return — a first-rounder and a good prospect — the Leafs should be happy to keep him. There’s no issue with OEL returning next season, but there is a potential opportunity to fetch two valuable futures for a team devoid of them.

If OEL is returning, the Leafs should move Brandon Carlo, given the need to restock their cupboard and the fact that they can’t simply run back their current defense. Carlo still holds value as a right-shot defenseman with 85 playoff games of experience (including a Stanley Cup Final), who has size and length, is a good penalty killer, and can be used in a defensive role. His $3.485M cap hit with another year remaining should be appealing for suitors around the league. The Leafs should easily fetch a first-round pick plus another asset for Carlo. If not, they can keep him and revisit the situation in the offseason or at the next trade deadline. 

Simon Benoit and Troy Stecher will hold some depth appeal for playoff teams, although they will likely net mid-round draft picks (which is fine). It will, if nothing else, clear some room for players like William Villeneuve and Henry Thrun to show whether they should be in the mix for next season.

While it’s likely not an in-season move, the Leafs should finally conclude Morgan Rielly’s Toronto tenure in the offseason. We’ll save this deep dive for another time, but it is clearly time to part ways. It has been for a while now. 

Staying or Going: The Goaltending

Lastly, the Leafs will need to sort through their three-headed goalie monster.

Ideally, they move Anthony Stolarz and run Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby moving forward. Woll and Hildeby are the two youngest goalies in the trio, and at this point, they can trust both of them to play more games than Stolarz.

The Leafs don’t have to do anything in net right this minute; they can wait until the offseason. I do think there is at least some sense in exploring what they could acquire for each of their three goalies. If there is good value to be found for one goalie, in particular, it’s worth considering.

Decision Time is Fast Approaching

Of course, all of this assumes the Leafs continue to chart the same course in the standings. Will they sell if they are four points out of a playoff spot in a month’s time? Is Brad Treliving effectively going to sign his own pink slip? Or does he have enough job security to sell and return next season? I can’t answer any of those questions, but I know what I would do.

At this rate, retooling is fast becoming the only option. The Leafs aren’t showing much of anything to suggest otherwise right now, and their great hope is essentially William Nylander returning to save the season (which has some merit, as he has been their best forward this season). 

A smart and savvy GM can easily sell off a collection of valuable pieces and return four-to-five good young pieces (either draft picks or prospects), shed some deadweight, refocus on the right players to move forward with, and then undertake an offseason that sets the team up competitively for next season, now with a much better prospect pool in place. It is not easy, but it is very, very achievable. There are good assets in place, but they need to shed the detrimental pieces while selling high on a few valuable ones, which they will have to backfill later.

The Leafs certainly aren’t actively buying at this point, not that they would have much to buy with, anyway. A hockey trade is always a possibility, but it’s difficult to pull off effectively. If the Leafs’ recent play continues, selling and resetting will be the only logical path. The decision has arguably already been made. It’s just a matter of whether those making the decisions in the front office are ready to admit it.