Elliotte Friedman’s final 32 Thoughts prior to the offseason break included a collection of Leafs nuggets to pore over, including the organization’s strong belief in Auston Matthews, Toronto’s offer on Claude Giroux (who has since re-signed in Ottawa), Gavin McKenna’s poise in the media, the touchy Morgan Rielly situation, and Florida’s decision to walk away from Sergei Bobrovsky.
“They really believe that Matthews is still the elite of the elite.”
Friedman: I think the organization feels this way: They really believe that Matthews is still the elite of the elite. They really believe it. They are hoping that he shows up healthy, ready to go, and drives the bus. They still believe he is the bus driver of this team.
They’ve added around him. They think all of these players are going to help make them better. But they still feel he is the critical key to the engine. That will be a very, very important part of next year.
… I don’t know how this is all going to go. It could be boom or boost. But it will not be boring. I’ll say this: I heard a lot of the returning players who were very demoralized at the end of last year really liked what’s been done. They feel much better about their team.
… I think one of the more fascinating ones will be Nylander. I think it was a really tough year between Nylander and the organization, but everybody gets a fresh start. Everybody gets something new. We talked about Matthews and how important he was, but Nylander is going to be pretty important too.
Friedman isn’t breaking any news here about the Leafs‘ continued commitment to the Matthews window, as it’s been crystal clear in both the public statements from team brass since the end of the season and in many of the offseason moves the Leafs subsequently made.
They hired a coach with whom Matthews has a positive, established relationship. They added a bunch of role players — paying a bit of a premium in some cases — who could help soak up some of the defensive-zone/matchup and penalty-killing minutes off Matthews’ plate. They added a substantial shooting threat to PP1, who can help draw away some attention from #34, while Jim Hiller talks about the man advantage as an area of focus for getting Matthews back to being the Matthews of old. They signed his USNTDP running mate, Jack Roslovic. They’ve broadly talked about making the team’s puck play exciting and dynamic again.
There is a sound enough theory behind all of this, especially knowing the Leafs‘ lack of their own first-rounders for the next couple of years. It’s not a bad bet, knowing Matthews’ age and elite track record. For Matthews’ part, now, he has to stay healthy, and he has to deliver on his end by returning to elite-level goal-scoring and play-driving.
The reality is that it’s really hard to picture any of the other players at the very top of the league’s salary rankings finishing 66th in points-per-game among players with 50 or more games played (as Matthews did last year), regardless of bad coaching/deployment or suboptimal linemates.
When Mitch Marner walked out on the team, and everyone questioned the impact on Matthews’ production and the team’s contention status at large, many hoped to see a bit of a fire lit under #34 as team captain. We never really saw it last year. When the Leafs won a few big games before the Olympic break and needed a run coming out of it, Matthews looked more run down than a man possessed (which wasn’t totally unfair, given the scheduling realities). From there, the season ended with a whimper well before the trade deadline.
Now, with a stroke of lottery luck, a coach he likes, and some aggressive spending in FA, it’s time to see the “enough is enough”, rejuvenated version of Matthews this fall. No more excuses.
It is also worth noting, amid all of the “all in” talk, that John Chayka has left an escape hatch open, if this season goes sideways and Matthews does not return to the form expected of him. A lot of the non-Raddysh deals he signed were shorter-term, and he’s actually added draft capital since he took over while holding onto Matthew Knies, Easton Cowan, and his top prospects.
“I said there is a chance they keep Rielly… I don’t know if that made everyone involved happy.”
Friedman: We should talk about Morgan Rielly. I said there is a chance they will keep him. I don’t know if that made everyone involved happy.
There was some reporting after that he would like to move on. I don’t know if that is true or not — I know it is out there — but I just heard that Toronto told people they’re not paying a big price to move him. If it is something they consider too much of a sweetener, they won’t do it. One thing that hurt them, as we talked about with San Jose, is that San Jose, with a choice, seemed to prefer Nurse over Rielly.
I look at their D — Raddysh, McCabe, Tanev, OEL, Andrae, Stecher — and if Rielly comes back, they’ll try to make it work for him. I think they feel like with a different approach and maybe a bit of a different role, it could help him.
He is a fantastic human being. I hope it works out for him. But I heard Toronto told teams they are not paying a big sweetener to trade him.
This Morgan Rielly situation remains a touchy one to navigate. Never once has he wanted out when the going’s been tough; never once has he wavered on wanting to be a Maple Leaf. As his name got dragged through the rumour mill as a contract dump, and the team has actively shopped him while seemingly communicating to Rielly that there may be a change of scenery coming, the team now has to be tactful in how it is treating one of the longest-tenured, most accomplished defensemen in franchise history (and a great person, to boot). He is deserving of more respect than to be left twisting in the wind forever or to be made to return to a team that doesn’t really want him at this point.
This is probably why Jim Hiller and John Chayka have publicly expressed such enthusiasm about potentially keeping Rielly, while making it clear he’s still a big part of the team for now. Still, this is a tricky line to walk as they’re clearly telling/have told teams behind the scenes, “We’re looking to move him, and we don’t expect anything back of real value, but we aren’t paying through the nose to offload him, either.”
Chayka should hold his line on refusing to bend over on a hefty sweetener — Kyle Dubas didn’t on Patrick Marleau, and it famously cost the team a top pick who just helped the Canes win a Cup — but he also can’t push this too, too far, either, knowing the sensitivity of the situation and Rielly’s stature within the organization and league at large. Not for nothing, Chayka has been accused in the past of not managing this type of situation involving a respected player within the league/his organization with enough tact, so he’ll want to get this one right.
Now, it’s not clear who is even left in the market to play ball on a reasonable Rielly off-load. Needless to say, this is now in a bit of a delicate spot for the Leafs.
“Gavin McKenna said everything right and hit every right note.”
Friedman: McKenna — I don’t know who does his media training, but he said everything right. He hit every right note. He didn’t have any stumbles. Everyone is always looking for the stumble, but he didn’t have any of that. That is a big win for him and them as they start the season.
We don’t bring this up to beat on a dead horse with the Mitch Marner thing; it’s more about learning lessons and avoiding that type of scenario again for this franchise. Neither side would be unhappy with the outcome one year later now — Marner made a Cup Final, the Leafs had tons of cap space to improve their team/balance their roster after drafting Gavin McKenna at 1OA — but you do generally want to avoid situations wherein homegrown elite players end up leaving the city as UFAs while citing mental health challenges.
With McKenna, the level of comfort in his own skin and self-awareness is miles, miles beyond where Marner was even when he left the team in his late 20s.
Again, we’ve made this view clear in this space multiple times, but Toronto never bullied Marner out of town. We fully acknowledge this can be a difficult market for players during tough times, like any passionate market literally anywhere in sports. But Marner was a unique combination of highly sensitive and lacking in self-awareness, to the point where he stepped on pretty much every rake imaginable in his public relations. From the organization’s standpoint, they should want to support their star players in a way that prevents this from happening again. Marner never seemed well prepared for a hard question that came his way. That’s on him, ultimately, but it’s also a place where he maybe could’ve been supported better by the organization.
The Leafs don’t have much work to do with McKenna, from what we can see. It’s not really coming across as performative or inauthentic, either, when he talks about criticism not only fuelling him, but also recognizing when there is legitimacy to those criticisms, actually taking them to heart in such cases, and finding ways to be better:
Question: When you hear criticism of your game, how do you react to that?
McKenna: “For me, it was just using it as fuel. Some of the critiques weren’t wrong in some of the stuff they said. I knew it was something I had to work on. Honestly, all year, I was hearing stuff, and it was just helping me grow as a person and a player. When I hear that stuff, it fires me up. With my work ethic off the ice, it helps me.”
We’ll see how McKenna evolves physically and in his overall game on the ice, but this kind of mental approach is highly encouraging. Self-confident, but not immune to criticism or overly sensitive about it, with the self-awareness to know when it’s just vitriol and when it comes from a place of real truth and should inspire some self-reflection (vs. defensively telling the media after a terrible series against the Montreal Canadiens that there was nothing to change about the performance). Mentally, McKenna seems to be in a much better place to succeed in the city of Toronto, through thick and thin, than Marner was.
That also extends to the conditions of the team — multiple superstars already later in their careers ahead of McKenna vs. Marner, Matthews, Nylander needing to learn to lead a team on their own, with a revolving cast of over-the-hill greybeards (Thorntons, Marleaus, Spezzas) airlifted in on short-term deals to try to help them through it.
Maple Leafs “still hopeful to add another difference-maker,” may have offered Claude Giroux the most money
Friedman: We mentioned before with Carolina that they’re still out there lurking. I think Toronto is also still hopeful to add another difference-maker. Now, it may not be now. It may be later. But I think that is what they’re considering. They didn’t give up any of their futures, really. They’ve even restocked some. I think they look at it as, “We kept that powder dry to stay alive in any opportunities that may arise.” That is one thing with Toronto.
I don’t think they’re done swinging. If there is something they could do that they see as impactful, they will do it.
Friedman: There were reports on Friday that he was going to Philadelphia. I couldn’t confirm that. I did ask; Edmonton was in there, Toronto was definitely in there. I actually think Toronto might’ve been the most money.
Another team that was in this thinks — and again, this person could be wrong; this was their impression — Giroux is seeing if anybody can really change his mind. They think he wants to go to Philadelphia. He is waiting to see if anyone can really change his mind.
I don’t want that reported as fact. It was just this guy’s opinion, and it could be wrong. That was a team that was in it, and that was his impression: Giroux is trying to see if anyone can convince him not to go to Philly.
Some models have been circulating boasting great offensive and defensive impacts from Claude Giroux. Giroux has a crafty stick, and it is notable that he was able to complement a solid shutdown line with Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio for stretches in Ottawa. But for anyone watching him regularly, it is clear Giroux is not the one driving any kind of high-end defensive results at this point in his career. He’s lost too many steps in his skating, and he was never a physical player to begin with.
That doesn’t mean he doesn’t offer some potential value to the Leafs. The Leafs appear one quality top-nine forward short right now, unless you’re banking on Dakota Joshua (or Sissons or Blueger) for those minutes and production at this point (Joshua would likely need to move off the cap sheet if the Leafs ever landed Giroux). Joshua did flash some of his offensive touch down the stretch with four goals and eight points in 17 games, but he had just 10 points in 38 games before then. He hasn’t topped 20 points in a few years now, and he’s really struggled to stay in the lineup. He doesn’t have much to offer on special teams, either. Colton Sissons and Teddy Blueger are probably more optimally — outside of plugging in up the lineup on spot duty — placed on a fourth line with Brandon Duhaime.
Giroux would give the Leafs a savvy, veteran right-shot playmaker, an elite faceoff taker, and a credible PP2 halfwall option who can still likely produce 50+ points. He’d round out the right wing with another right shot (along with Nylander, Roslovic, possibly Sissons), and give the Leafs the ability to create three legitimate-looking scoring lines.
To wit:
Cowan – Matthews – Nylander
Knies – Tavares – Roslovic
McKenna – Paul – Giroux
Duhaime – Blueger – Sissons
Lorentz
The fit works, and the ability to use McKenna — as he initially transitions into the NHL — on a scoring line with either Knies-Tavares or Paul-Giroux while facing softer matchups is appealing. In all cases but the Raddysh one (and to a lesser extent Bobrovsky’s extra year), the Leafs have been fully willing to top up the AAV if they can keep the term down, which would be their play again here on the 38-year-old Giroux.
But the Leafs shouldn’t need to back up the money truck to way overpay/convince Giroux that Toronto is the right fit over the Senators or Flyers at this point. He’s simply not that calibre of player anymore, and he makes the team slower. It sounds like they’ve put a more than competitive offer on the table, but they shouldn’t get too carried away here.
Update: Giroux has since decided to remain in Ottawa.
“Bobrovsky’s 3×7 was his last ask of Florida”
I heard the 3×7 Bobrovsky signed for was his last ask of Florida, and Florida was not willing to go there. They made their decision. Toronto gave him the offer that Florida wouldn’t do. It will be fascinating. I think he is a really motivated guy who wants to prove there is a lot still there.
They don’t have to worry about Hildeby anymore because they traded him. I was kind of wondering if they might carry three goalies, but you don’t have to think about that anymore.
First and foremost, we would be remiss not to worry whatsoever about paying a soon-to-be 38-year-old big money for three years or how motivated he is at this point in his career. Bobrovsky is already a first-ballot Hall of Famer; he has multiple Cups and multiple Vezinas. It might ultimately mean nothing, but the idea of Bob being motivated to prove division rival Florida wrong is enticing, if not comforting.
From the Panthers’ end, it is a fascinating decision to roll with Jacob Markstrom over Bobrovsky. Markstrom is just over a year younger — Bobrovsky was born in September 1988, Markstrom in January 1990 — and you can’t even remotely compare their resumes. The Panthers had to give up Evan Rodrigues to make the deal happen, too, and while he has flown under the radar in Florida, he produced back-to-back 15-point playoffs over the Panthers’ two Cup runs.
Of course, the Panthers added Brady Tkachuk, but considering Rodrigues’ playoff production and Bobrovsky’s playoff play, it’s not unreasonable to debate how much better Florida is here, if at all. Is Brady Tkachuk putting up 15+ points next spring? He just got skunked as his former team, which he captained, got swept.
The other part, of course, is the bet on whether Bobrovsky has simply passed his best-before date. He’s turning 38 and had a poor season; it’s possible this is the case. Regardless of what Markstrom does, Florida will be proven correct if this is who Bobrovsky is moving forward. If he does rebound, though, there is some real potential for this decision — on both sides — to have a significant ripple effect on the entire Atlantic Division.
