MLHS’ Anthony Petrielli joined The JD Bunkis Podcast to discuss Gavin McKenna’s impressive preseason, the encouraging signs from Auston Matthews, the Leafs’ playoff outlook, and the decisions facing Jim Hiller in the bottom six.
On whether Gavin McKenna’s preseason changed his expectations:
I wouldn’t say it reframed anything, but it put me at ease a little bit. There are certain parts of his game that are obviously going to have to develop. Everyone is going to talk about the defensive side, but there were questions about his weight, too. How is that going to hold up against NHL defenders? Is he going to be able to hold the puck the same way he did in college and the WHL? Is he going to be able to fend off defenders and make plays?
He isn’t a blazer when it comes to skating, so is his speed going to prohibit him in any capacity? So far, so good. His speed doesn’t look like a problem at all. The way he has been able to hold pucks on the wall, make plays, and create time and space for himself has been honestly really impressive.
He is slippery. When he drew the penalty, for example, it was just a quick spin-off. He might not be William Nylander skating-wise, but criticism of his skating is probably unfair. The way he moves around and his shiftiness frustrate defenders. It wasn’t just against Ottawa, either. Against Montreal in the first game, Mike Matheson went completely yard sale as McKenna spun off him on the rush.
That is what I mean by being put at ease. I’m watching and thinking, “I don’t know if the things people have been pointing out and flagging are going to be as big a problem for him as others seem to think.”
On whether McKenna and John Tavares could drive a line without William Nylander:
If those things aren’t a problem, it makes me wonder: Do they really need to have Nylander on that line to drive offense? Or can McKenna and Tavares primarily do it with someone else there, which allows you to move Nylander around the lineup as you see fit?
Last year, they just didn’t have that option. Anytime they tried to put Matthews and Nylander together, they had pretty much nothing else going in their lineup. These are good problems to have, ultimately.
On how McKenna has handled the spotlight:
I have a high degree of confidence that he is going to show you the things that make him special at the NHL level and that he isn’t going to look overwhelmed. If anything has moved the needle for me slightly, it is that he hasn’t looked overwhelmed by these moments at all.
People can say, “Well, it’s no pressure. It’s the preseason.” No, there is pressure. You are the first-overall pick. You are going out there and skating with John Tavares and William Nylander. You are getting an opportunity with Auston Matthews. You are playing against NHL competition. You want to look good.
If I were producing the highlight pack from that game, I would have had a difficult time condensing it to show how many moments Gavin McKenna had. To me, that is a win.
I saw that Bleacher Report clipped every shift from his preseason debut. In fairness, they did the same thing with Matthew Schaefer last year, but the McKenna video already had over four times the views. That is the spotlight of Toronto. People are dialed in on him because of the jersey he wears, the market he is playing in, and the fact that he stepped on the ice at all.
I would push back against the idea that there is no pressure because it is “just preseason.” If he had two bad preseason games, there would already be quite a bit of scrutiny.
On what McKenna has shown offensively and what still needs work:
Not everything has to be carved up in analysis. He looks really good. He doesn’t seem hesitant or unable to do the things he is accustomed to doing. We aren’t watching him and saying, “He really needs to change his game from what he was able to do before.” It is more that he needs to figure out his timing at this level.
It is amazing that he only picked up a secondary assist in that game. I looked at it about five times, thinking, “How did he get zero points other than chipping a puck out from his own zone to spring a two-on-one?” That speaks to how good he was. Other guys can feel free to finish at any point.
The biggest thing you could honestly say is that he will probably have to continue working on his shot. You can see how that could hold him back early on offensively, and teams will obviously play it. But players have figured it out before. The Leafs had Mitch Marner, and Nazem Kadri couldn’t shoot when he entered the league. Brian Burke was all over it. It is nothing new for a young guy, and McKenna will have to figure that part out, too.
All in all, it is an exciting development.
On whether the preseason changed his outlook for the Leafs:
Going into it, I thought they were in the wild-card mix. If you logically look at the Atlantic, Ottawa and Boston made it last year, and those are the two easiest teams to target. Boston had a lot of warts to its game that Jeremy Swayman covered up, so they are really banking on Swayman being healthy and an elite goalie all year again. Ottawa kind of squeaked into the playoffs and then had the whole Brady Tkachuk episode. That isn’t to say I think Montreal and Buffalo are bulletproof, either, because I don’t.
Those are probably the two teams from last year you look at and say you have to grab one of their spots. Florida is probably going to grab the other one. Then you have to do well against the Metropolitan Division, which I don’t think is particularly good outside of Washington and Carolina.
I still think the Leafs are in that mix. Nothing in the preseason swayed me that they are more than that, and nothing swayed me that they are less than that. They already needed Matthews to be really good just to be in the wild-card mix. They couldn’t do it in spite of him. If he doesn’t have a great year, they are going to be in trouble. I think we all know that.
What the preseason offered was reassurance that Matthews looks on track, Chris Tanev looked on track, and Sergei Bobrovsky looked on track. It was more the absence of negatives. There wasn’t a really important player you watched and said, “Oh, he doesn’t look right already.”
The only guy you could probably say that about is Matthew Knies, and Knies is probably the anti-preseason player in general. That isn’t his game. He isn’t going out there blowing guys up or forechecking extremely aggressively in preseason.
All in all, I think the Leafs are still in that same mix. Nothing has really changed that way, but it is okay to feel good about it. They do have a lot of good players. I think that was on display, and they have every reason to think that they should be a playoff team.
On Matthews’ goal vs. Ottawa, his improved assertiveness offensively, and the optimism ahead of the season:
It was nice to see Matthews shoot one into the net. He had a ton of chances against Montreal, to the point where I almost came away thinking that five years ago, he would have had a hat trick in that game, and he had none. Sure, Kaapo Kähkönen made a good save, and it was Matthews’ first game back after surgery. You aren’t going to sit there and ask, “Why didn’t he score in game one?”
But it was nice to see him put one in the net against Ottawa. He is creating a bunch of chances, the timing is getting there, and the skating looks good. All positives. He is carrying the puck a little bit more, too.
The reality is that he played with Marner for a long time. Marner was really good at holding the puck and setting him up, and Matthews became a little bit reliant on that. That isn’t to say he has been fully reliant on Marner his whole career, because that is patently false. He went entire seasons basically without playing with him, courtesy of Mike Babcock. That was never a limitation of his game.
But it is human nature. You play with a guy for a long time, you become accustomed to certain things, and then he leaves and you have to figure it out. Last year, Matthews struggled with that. He had to be more assertive on the puck, and he wasn’t. They played a system that definitely didn’t allow him to be, either.
Against Ottawa and Montreal, you are seeing more games where he is skating the puck in himself. He is taking the blue line and taking space in the offensive zone a little bit more. There are give-and-go plays and things like that.
Last year was a mixture of a really poor system and a defense that couldn’t facilitate getting him the puck. Now you aren’t looking at the defense and cringing when a Carlo or a Benoit touches the puck because you’re thinking, “Well, this guy can’t make a pass onto someone’s tape.” You are eight or nine deep now before you get to that point. All of that adds up.
On Matthews’ early chemistry with McKenna and the different feeling around the team:
When Matthews and McKenna were on the ice together in the second period, I wanted more of it. I was thinking, “Keep going.” They were just doing whatever they wanted. It was ridiculous. It looked like a power play, and then they scored. Drake Batherson was on the ice; there were NHL players out there. You couldn’t help but laugh.
It is a different vibe, a different system, and a bit of renewed confidence. They also seem to be over the cloud of Marner leaving. There are no questions about it anymore. It isn’t the thing happening throughout preseason the way it was last year. They were all tired of talking about it then, which is fair. I don’t blame them.
It is just a completely different feeling so far.
On the Leafs’ flexibility and options to move players throughout the lineup:
It isn’t just different options for playing with Matthews; it is different options throughout the lineup. They did have guys such as Max Domi who could have chemistry with Matthews for a month and go off. Bobby McMann was good in that spot. The problem was that when they forced certain guys up with Matthews, it neutered the rest of the lineup. They just didn’t have enough.
Anytime they put Nylander and Matthews together, it was like, “Well, if that line isn’t scoring two or three goals, this game is a waste of time.” Now I look at it and say that if they can’t make three lines, either they are extremely injured or that is on the coach.
They shouldn’t have to feel as though they are robbing Peter to pay Paul all the time. They can move things around depending on the fit, and there should be enough there to cobble together multiple good lines that contribute to the team.
Those are positive developments, which is what you expected after they added McKenna and signed the players they did. So far, it looks to me as though they should be in that situation.
On Nick Paul’s importance to Easton Cowan’s line:
Paul is the linchpin there. He is the bridge player. He could score 20 goals, which he has done multiple times, and you would nod and say, “Yes, he has done it. That isn’t surprising.”
What did Colton Sissons have last year — 11 points. He could have 15 points this season and you wouldn’t blink at it, and that isn’t necessarily good for Cowan, either.
Is Paul going to be healthy and be that bridge between Cowan and the defensive winger on the other side, whether that is Sissons or someone else? Can he help Cowan facilitate offense? You would like to think so, given Paul’s history and how productive he has generally been, other than last year when he was hurt and coming off surgery.
On the the fourth line and balancing the bottom six:
I watched the game in Ottawa, and I actually liked that Blueger–Duhaime–Lorentz line for what they are. They are a pure checking, defensive line: three honest NHL veterans who know their roles and know who they are in this league. They don’t cheat you on effort, and they don’t cheat you on defense. Anyone who gets anything against that line is going to have to work for it and come by it honestly.
It is nice to have a line of responsible adults like that. You just don’t want Cowan playing with those guys. If Roslovic drops down the lineup, it becomes the same sort of conversation or problem.
On Bo Groulx’s case for a roster spot:
The one guy in the mix who might be getting a little lost in the shuffle, but who I think should make the team, is Bo Groulx. I think he has had a good preseason and a good camp. They put him in a tough spot against Ottawa between Pezzetta and MacEwen, but he moved up here and there after Paul got hurt.
Just like last year, I thought he acquitted himself well against and beside NHL talent. He at least provides them an option who can shoot the puck into the net. If Cowan were setting up Groulx in the slot, I would expect him to score. He has a great shot. I would expect him to finish that chance more readily than a Sissons, Lorentz, Blueger, or Duhaime type of player.
The bottom six is probably going to be a little too defensive at times. It will come down to whether those players do just enough to chip in the odd bit of offense while being good enough defensively to open up ice for the top guys. How they run it will be pretty significant.
On Cowan starting further down the lineup:
If the Leafs hadn’t won the lottery — God forbid they had lost the pick entirely — Cowan would be the only young guy we would be talking about. He would pretty much be in the top six, and we would be saying, “Hopefully this guy is ready to go.”
He had a good finish to last season. I don’t begrudge anyone for not watching down the stretch, but he was playing with Nylander and Tavares, and they looked genuinely good. They looked like a legitimate second line. Now you have a good problem: You acquired McKenna and signed Roslovic, which, in theory, allows you to push Cowan down the lineup to start the season.
Cowan is a good player. If he were in the top six all year, I would expect something over half a point per game from him — around 40 points or so. I also liked having him as a general presence on the third line: someone more offensive and dangerous.
Early in the game, the top six would go out and establish some offensive-zone shifts. Then the third line would come on, and it was nice that Cowan was there to try to do something with those opportunities. He has his work cut out for him on that line, but I don’t think they are setting him up for failure. It is nice to have a player with that kind of punch and talent further down the lineup to start the year.
