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The Leafs’ final road game of the season was a fitting summary of their 2015 play.

They were heavily out-chanced in the first period, with Columbus having several great shifts where they generated multiple chances, scoring three goals in the frame. The Leafs were better in terms of chances after that opening period, but they couldn’t get a goal and fell further behind as Columbus scored two more in the second. The Leafs couldn’t bust the shutout in the third, either, and went down to a 5-0 defeat.

StatusOverallEven StrengthES Close
TeamTORCBJ%TORCBJ%TORCBJ%
151131.3%31121.4%31023.1%
29852.9%6554.5%00-
37558.3%5455.6%00-
Total212446.7%142041.2%31023.1%

The Leafs‘ numbers in the last two periods were much improved, as Columbus no longer needed to worry about scoring goals, but the ES Close numbers show how badly the Leafs started.

ClubStPTimeTScOscNoteTorontoColumbus
TORES117:2700Kessel from Van Riemsdyk428121233417117175872
CBJES114:5700Foligno from Johnson428121233419387172972
CBJES114:4900Jenner from rebound of Foligno shot428121233419387172972
CBJES114:4800Jenner from rebound of Foligno shot428121233419387172972
CBJES114:4300Foligno wraparound4281212334193871272972
CBJES114:4200Foligno from rebound4281212334193871272972
CBJES110:2200Anisimov drives wide428121335734174271444772
TORES108:0600Booth drives223720233455911444772
CBJES106:1500Anisimov drives42812133573417427175872
CBJES106:1000GOAL! Anisimov from Dubinsky42812133573417427175872
TORES105:5801Kadri from Panik1543182334415643444772
CBJES104:1201Atkinson from Joyhanesn24471944513419381375872
CBJES104:0401GOAL! Jenner from Johansen24471944513419381375872
TORPP103:0402Phaneuf wide from Kessel42812134434174275872-
TORPP102:0702Rielly from Bozak428121344344155272972-
CBJES101:0002GOAL! Hartnell from Dano1543192334415643272972
TORES219:4803Kadri from rebound of Booth shot1543202334415643272972
CBJES219:2703Dano from Goloubef1543202334415643272972
TORES218:2303Kessel drives428121233417427172772
CBJES217:3903Jenner drives2447192334193813444772
TORSH217:1203Booth wide from Sill2220335734-19381375872
CBJSH216:4303Jenner from Atkinson4221335734-19381375872
CBJSH216:4103Savard from rebound of Jenner shot4221335734-19381375872
CBJES214:5104Dubinsky wide from Calvert24471944514517117175872
TORPP214:3004Rielly from Van Riemsdyk428121344451719272972-
CBJPP214:0204Anisimov drives post428121344451742294772-
CBJES212:2504Letestu deflects Johnson shot15431933514555114375872
TORPP208:1504Van Riemsdyk wide from Kessel428121344451742444772-
TORES207:2304Bailey from Booth243720445745193813272972
CBJES206:4604Dano deflects Savard shot4281212574541564375872
TORES202:1805Bozak drives42182133444519387175872
TORES202:0805Kessel from loose puck4281213514517427175872
TORES201:4405Bozak drives4281213514517427175872
TORES314:5405Lupul from loose puck2237193444519381375872
CBJES313:2505Foligno drives24182025145425571272972
TORPP312:4805Bozak wide from Kessel42812134445195575872-
CBJES312:3105Calvert from Letestu42812134445551175872-
TORPP311:1305Holland deflects Gardiner shot wide2443193351451742444772-
CBJES309:4605Dano drives2237202574541564375872
TORES309:0705Kadri drives15431833444555911444772
TORES306:4605Bailey from Sill1522373574519381372972
TORES306:1205Booth drives post431820334445195643272972
CBJES304:1605Calvert from Johnson2437195157455591175872
TORES302:5805Kadri deflects Erixon shot37431833444555911444772
CBJES302:4205Wennberg deflects Dano shot wide42812133444541564375872

Player-by-Player data:

PlayerOverallEven StrengthES Close
ForAgainstDiffTOIForAgainstDiffTOIForAgainstDiff
Brewer511-620:42511-619:5935-2
Phaneuf1410423:5398117:4035-2
Lindstrom43113:5043112:13101
Panik51411:4151410:59101
Lupul27-515:3817-613:1302-2
Booth53215:2843113:33101
Van Riemsdyk1014-420:29510-514:2418-7
Sill41310:4631209:47101
Holland26-415:2016-513:3902-2
Erixon67-115:4445-112:0703-3
Bailey52311:1352311:13101
Bozak1014-421:43510-515:0818-7
Kadri63313:5953211:19101
Rielly116522:1164216:4402-2
Komarov04-407:0604-407:0602-2
Gardiner36-321:1826-417:1802-2
MacWilliam38-516:1626-414:0203-3
Kessel912-319:36410-614:0118-7
Reimer815-723:30513-820:23310-7
Bernier139436:3097228:30000

The top line had very lopsided zone starts, with a 91% ratio of OZone starts to Dzone starts. That didn’t help their chance numbers, as they were, yet again, the worst line. All three players were -7 at ES Close, and while they were able to pull those numbers back somewhat in the final two periods, they still finished a long way short of even, with Kessel a team-low -6. Joffrey Lupul was also a -6 at ES, although most of his struggles came after the Leafs had fallen behind.

One of the bright spots was Casey Bailey. He hasn’t done a whole lot in his limited minutes thus far, but had a strong night tonight, on for five Leaf ES chances and a +3. Richard Panik had the best numbers of the Leafs, on for only a single Blue Jackets chance in eleven ES minutes. Nazem Kadri also had a good night in chances, and Joakim Lindstrom, despite the lowest zone start ratio on the team, managed to finish positive in chances as well.

Toronto’s regular defensive pairings ended up in the blender as the game went on, but one constant was that Eric Brewer had a tough night with any partner. After having a strong game against Ottawa, he struggled in terms of chances tonight, on for 11 Jackets chances, a team low, and finishing-6. Jake Gardiner also put up bad numbers, despite relatively soft zone starts. Morgan Rielly managed to finish in the positive, as did Dion Phaneuf, while Tim Erixon recovered somewhat after a bad start, -3 at ES Close.

Cumulative numbers this season:

OverallPos#Even StrengthES Close
ForAgainst%TOIForAgainst%
LindstromF18434648.3%09:27282651.9%
KadriF7235037048.6%14:5620620949.6%
PolakD5628634645.3%17:5417418848.1%
RiellyD8043848147.7%17:0423626746.9%
SillF20303248.4%07:20151746.9%
PanikF7520622348.0%10:2111313246.1%
GardinerD7840044147.6%18:1121525545.7%
BernierG5774888545.8%44:0645854545.7%
KomarovF6219520349.0%12:0110212345.3%
PhaneufD6938346745.1%17:2022327744.6%
SmithF5412915345.7%09:18769843.7%
KesselF8141550245.3%15:0323331042.9%
LupulF5421129142.0%13:1911715642.9%
BozakF8139648345.1%14:5321129042.1%
HollandF6117225040.8%11:429313241.3%
ReimerG3541852544.3%41:3419528141.0%
Van RiemsdykF8137751042.5%14:5321631340.8%
BrewerD178812142.1%18:03507340.7%
CarrickF16233241.8%07:07152438.5%
BoothF5814520341.7%10:328213438.0%
KozunF20284637.8%07:26132237.1%
RobidasD5219226741.8%14:449316336.3%
ErixonD14326732.3%12:33214531.8%

If this was the last we see of James Reimer this year (the way things have gone, I wouldn’t be stunned if Bernier ended up pulled on Saturday), then there’s been a statistical oddity that I’m not sure how to explain. Bernier’s chance numbers have been consistently a little bit higher than Reimer’s all season. The gap isn’t large, but it is the same relationship I saw last season. Over the two year stretch, the Leafs have had about 43% of chances at ES when Reimer was in, and about 46% with Bernier in net. What does this boil down to? Is it just a random distribution, and meaningless? Has Reimer gotten more difficult opponents, or more difficult circumstances (playing after travel, playing in 2nd game of back-to-back games, etc.)? Do the Leafs play differently in front of Reimer, reducing their ability to generate possession, meager as it is already? Or is it something about Reimer himself, such as his rebound control? I intend to take a little closer look at it in my post-season wrap-ups, but it’s something to ponder as the Leafs decided the future of Jonathan Bernier.