The rookie tournament is over, training camp starts this week, and by the weekend, the Maple Leafs will be playing their first preseason games. NHL hockey isn’t fully back, but we’re just about there.
The Leafs had a particularly busy offseason, both on and off the ice, that resulted in six new forwards, at least two new defensemen, and a new starting goalie. While we likely know who will be on the team, barring a genuine surprise or two, how the team lines up and is deployed remains very much in question.
Alec’s individual player profiles have been a great exercise in evaluating each option individually. Now, it’s time to put it all together as a cohesive unit that accounts for each individual’s strengths and weaknesses.
Training camp and the preseason have now been abbreviated as the league moves to an 84-game season. That can make the preseason feel somewhat meaningless and the results predetermined. Contract status rules the day; teams aren’t suddenly waiving NHLers with pedigree because some young kid came in and had a few good weeks.
Bo Groulx, for example, had a pretty solid preseason last year, but we didn’t see him until late in the season, after he tore apart the AHL and the Leafs’ season was past the point of no return.
Even with that, I don’t buy that the preseason is entirely meaningless. If nothing else, it shows us how the Leafs view their players and plan to deploy them, especially with a new coach in charge. It should also provide a first look at certain combinations and whether they might work.
There is a fine line between giving something time to grow and recognizing when what’s directly in front of you doesn’t make much sense.
Last preseason, we saw how the Leafs wanted to line up. Then Scott Laughton got injured, and they inexplicably changed three of their four lines to account for their 4C missing time. It was a sign of things to come, to say the least.
Long story short, we will be paying attention and putting some stock into the decisions the Leafs make in preseason. At forward, in particular, these are the storylines I will be monitoring:
Who rounds out the top six?
Locks: Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander, Matthew Knies
In the mix: Gavin McKenna, Easton Cowan, Jack Roslovic, Nick Paul
The competition
We can say with absolute certainty that Matthews and Tavares are the team’s top two centers to start the season, while Knies and Nylander are locks for two of the four top-six winger spots. None of that really requires an explanation. After that, there is some genuine debate to be had.
McKenna is the talented and hyped rookie, but he is also a complete wildcard (more on that below).
Cowan went through fairly standard growing pains in his first season, aided by all the mismanagement happening around him through no fault of his own, but he showed well down the stretch, particularly alongside Nylander, and produced a strong AHL playoff run for the Marlies.
Roslovic is a consistent 20-goal scorer who has a history with Matthews and is the only other viable right-shot option.
It might surprise some to see Paul’s name here, but before his lost season last year, he was a solid top-six forward for Tampa Bay who strung together seasons of 16, 17, 24, and 22 goals. He is also the only option here who offers size and plays a net-front, down-low type of game stylistically.
My take
At the end of the day, I think McKenna and Cowan are the top talents available to fill out the top six. Provided they look the part, I would rather start them there and begin building chemistry immediately.
That is contingent on both players arriving at camp and hitting the ground running. If they look in over their heads, I would lean toward Roslovic early in the season, as he has generally started well in recent years when the checking isn’t as tight. He was tied for Carolina’s team lead in goals through Christmas two seasons ago and produced at over a point-per-game pace in November with Edmonton last season.
Ultimately, we know Roslovic isn’t a true top-six forward. While Paul has succeeded as a complementary player in that role, he is also limited offensively at the end of the day.
McKenna’s linemates
Locks: Technically, none
In the mix: In theory, pretty well everyone other than Teddy Blueger, Brandon Duhaime, and Steven Lorentz
The competition
You could make this argument for almost anyone because we don’t actually know who anyone’s linemates will be, given all the changes on and off the ice.
McKenna is highlighted here in particular because the Leafs have a responsibility to support the first-overall pick as they balance the unique challenge of developing him while also trying to win right now.
Complicating matters is the Leafs’ right-shot situation, as they have only three right-shot forwards: Nylander, Roslovic, and Sissons.
None of those players are options the Leafs should particularly want to play with McKenna. Nylander and Roslovic are both weak defensively and won’t support him physically, while Sissons is too limited with the puck.
Would they play McKenna on his off wing as a rookie? Would they move another left-shot option over? Or would they simply force him alongside one of the right-shot forwards?
At center, there are three potential options, which should include Paul. He is skilled enough to contribute offensively alongside McKenna and is also the only option who would actually protect him physically. Which of those centers McKenna plays with, though, probably has more to do with how ready McKenna is to contribute than anything those centers can do.
My take
I know many are chomping at the bit to simply play McKenna with Matthews as a natural playmaker-sniper tandem, but I think that would be a mistake to start the season.
If the Leafs were in a full rebuild, fair enough. Give him all the minutes he can handle, and he’ll learn as he goes. That isn’t the situation, though.
The Leafs have made it abundantly clear that they are trying to compete. Regardless of how talented McKenna is, I don’t think teams that are genuinely trying to contend simply parachute an 18-year-old onto their top line and assume everything is going to be okay.
Even with the Leafs’ additions, Matthews will spend plenty of time against opponents’ top pairings and forward lines. It is a huge ask to put McKenna in that spot immediately for a team trying to win.
If McKenna is ready to become a top-end producer right away, then great. He can show it on the second line and work his way up from there.
It’s not as though their second-line center would put McKenna behind the eight ball. Tavares scored 31 goals and 71 points last season and remains an elite faceoff man. He is a quality veteran for McKenna to learn from and grow alongside, helping set him up for immediate success against weaker opponents while preparing him to eventually move up the lineup.
On the other wing, I would like to see Knies for a few reasons. Chief among them is that Knies is the only true top-six option the Leafs have who can help protect McKenna physically, which would be very important to me. Look at how many times Matthew Schaefer was run last season.
Further, people seem to have grown accustomed to automatically assigning Knies to Matthews’ wing, but there isn’t much evidence that they form a particularly great tandem. Matthews’ best stretch last season came with Bobby McMann on his left wing, and in the seasons before that, Knies was clearly the third-best player on the line.
Who is the 3C?
In the mix: Nick Paul, Colton Sissons, Teddy Blueger, Jack Roslovic
The competition
The Leafs completely remade their bottom six in the offseason, but the anchor of any bottom six is really the 3C. That player helps drive the purpose of the third line and makes life easier on the fourth line.
Last season, the Leafs had Nic Roy and Scott Laughton, and both were traded at the deadline. Now, they have brought in a host of players who could theoretically fill the role.
Paul has bounced between center and wing over the past few seasons with Tampa Bay and has succeeded in both positions. If it’s him, he would be a more offensive option in that spot and isn’t a defensive liability.
Roslovic would represent a pure offensive option at 3C, while Sissons and Blueger are the opposite: Both are very good defensively but offer little with the puck.
My take
As far as I’m concerned, this should be Paul’s job to lose.
The Leafs gave up two mid-round picks and a promising young goalie for him. As of this writing, there are all sorts of wingers still on the market who could match Paul’s production on the wing, even if their player profiles differ somewhat from his. If Paul is going to play wing here, the Leafs would have been better off preserving their assets for something else. The acquisition cost alone should give him the inside track.
Paul is also the only option in this group who is good enough offensively to play 3C while also remaining competent defensively. He offers a reasonable version of the proverbial “best of both worlds” for what the Leafs should want from the position.
Every other option is far too limited on one half of the ice for what you would want from a 3C.
Who is on the checking line?
Locks: Technically, none, but I’d say it’s pretty safe to assume Brandon Duhaime will be there
In the mix: Teddy Blueger, Colton Sissons, Dakota Joshua, Steven Lorentz
The competition
It was clearly a priority for the Leafs to bring in checking forwards who could presumably lessen the ridiculous workload they asked Matthews to handle last season. Given all the options they now have to choose from, it is an underrated battle to watch.
They signed two potential checking centers in Blueger and Sissons. It is essentially a guarantee that at least one of them will play on this line.
Duhaime has succeeded in this type of role on a good team and should be a lock for the checking line. Otherwise, why sign him to the type of contract they did? He isn’t suddenly going to become productive offensively at 29 years old.
Then there are Joshua and Lorentz, who are both big and have demonstrated an ability to check effectively, making each a viable option. Joshua, in particular, has already shown chemistry alongside Blueger, making a reunion tempting.
My take
In an ideal world, my checking line is Duhaime–Blueger–Sissons. It would feature left- and right-shot faceoff options, which is a useful asset for a line that will likely be buried in defensive-zone assignments. I also think they should be the Leafs’ three best pure checking forwards, and the line would possess some sneaky speed.
At the same time, the Leafs paid Sissons a lot of money just to bury him on the fourth line. It would also likely mean one of Joshua or Lorentz playing in the top nine, as someone here will probably need to round out the third line unless a player such as Groulx—or someone to that effect—makes the team and sticks in a more offensive role.
As much as I would like to reunite the Joshua–Blueger pairing, I also think Joshua is the best fit in the top nine with the lineup configured this way, given that Paul and Roslovic would play on the third line. Joshua is a natural left winger who could fit alongside them.
You could also make the argument for playing Sissons at 3C, Paul at 3LW, and keeping Joshua and Blueger together with Duhaime.
This is what training camp is for. Ideally, I would like to see both setups tested, and the eventual configuration could also be matchup-dependent based on the opponent.
