Morning Mashup: Leafs All But Out Of Playoff Picture

The Toronto Maple Leafs have exited the 2013/2014 season in a slow death spiral, as opposed to the surprising, gut wrenching exit of the 2012/2013 season.

Ardent followers of the team will not find this surprising; the team has some glaring holes, particularly up the middle with one of the weakest center groups in the league, and a steep fall off after Dion Phaneuf in terms of two way defenseman able to defend against top competition. This on top of Dion Phaneuf playing the worst hockey of his Maple Leaf career, and possibly of his NHL career.

Dave Nonis is going to have difficulty acquiring talent  in the off-season in the two areas that every single team covets: number one and number two center men with two-way skill present themselves very infrequently, as well as top pairing defenseman that can play against the best players in the world while still producing points and playing on the powerplay.

Paul Stastny is an unrestricted free agent and checks the top line centerman box — if barely — but adds two-way acumen not seen in the center group and is an upgrade in pretty well every area hockey players are measured. With the much talked about pressure of playing in Toronto, on top of them being further away from being a contender optically, this is when the Toronto Maple Leafs become a hard sell to free agents. Why would he want to come play here? On top of actually acquiring a free agent, the small matter of paying him is going to be an even greater task with burdensome contracts such as David Clarkson’s and Tim Gleason’s getting in the way of making it fit under the cap.

The only other two-way center men that appears to be available would be Ryan Kesler, and he would have to waive his no trade contract to come and play in Toronto. Again, these players are not stupid and see sports highlights, hear commentary, and when you’re losing in Toronto, no one wants to play here. (Please see: Reimer, April for more details). The other question, obviously, is if going after a 30-year-old centerman with some recent injury history is getting away from going after young talent and building the core of the group using the same age bracket.

It isn’t hard to see who would be going the other way to Vancouver; Kadri’s best years are going to be right in front of him statistically (24, 25, 26), but you also have to question if you can win a championship with him. It would definitely reek of old regimes of Toronto Maple Leafs management to trade a young player before his best years, but by the same token is he the right player for this team right now? Almost all people would lean towards not moving him, but if you were to acquire one — or both — of the above-mentioned centerman,  you would go from a team comprised of players of similar skill sets that can’t win a board or one-on-one battle to save their life with limited defensive acumen to a topline two-way center men with defensive acumen, both above 50% on the face-off dot, and both with a bit more “heaviness” to their game. It would completely change the entire dynamic of the team, and by playing proper, two-way hockey, the puck will be on your stick more (possession) and allow your offensive players to shine by doing so. The Leafs can score without having the puck more than any other team in the league, but what if the same offensive players had the puck on their stick in middle-of-the-puck type of possession numbers? Or better than middle of the pack?

Having said all this, I would be remiss not to mention the coaching changes required in Toronto. Many thousands of words have been typed out here at Maple Leafs Hot Stove over Randy Carlyle’s offensive, neutral, and defensive zone systems, which are the main reasons that Toronto is on pace to be outshot at levels not seen since expansion. Randy Carlyle has staunchly stood by his system, which in the defensive zone focuses on outnumbering men in the corner, collapsing the forwards down tightly with the defenseman, and generally making coverage look like a Tyke hockey practice. Of note, Don Cherry highlighted Dion Phaneuf “running around in his own zone”, on Coaches Corner. The sad part is that he was playing how he’s been asked to play; he does this every game, against all the top players; it looks bad and it’s hard to watch, but he’s doing what he’s told. Jonathan Bernier has expressed shock in interviews about how there are regularly two defenseman the corners, and commented that at every level of hockey — especially with the Los Angeles Kings —he has always been used to having one defenceman in front of the net, at all times. The Maple Leafs are coached to do this and it goes against what any other coach in the league would do. As alluded to on “Hotstove Tonight,” coaching staff from another team said that the Maple leafs are very hard to scout because “they don’t even have a system”. Certainly damning stuff for Carlyle and the coaching staff (Dave Farrish, Scott Gordon, Greg Cronin and Chris Dennis).

Randy Carlyle’s systems, combined with horrible roster decisions, have almost certainly ended his tenure here in Toronto. Obvious, easy decisions based on common sense — and typically backed up with statistics — are tossed aside, and only when other teams force his hand is he making the correct roster decisions (Bruins ECQF, Lightning this year, Bruins this year).

Past performance is generally best predictor of future behaviour and Dave Nonis has a checkered past of bizarre decisions, combined with inaction (earning him the nickname No-No). His signature move in Toronto was rumoured to be a Tim Leiweke’s proxy trade, and he confirmed this in his lengthy, intriguing interview with Strombo.

That leaves Dave Nonis’ signature move right now as signing David Clarkson to a seven-year deal at $5.2 million; easily the worst contract signing in the almost 100-year-old franchises history.

To look for a certain transaction, use the search field at the top right of the table. 

Dave Nonis Transactions as Maple Leafs GM

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When Brian Burke was being interviewed for the position of GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Dave Nonis also interviewed for the job and was deemed unfit to run the team. He now runs the team.

Leaf Links (if you dare)

• Leafs Fail to Win A Must Win: Jets 4, Leafs 2 (PPP)
• Randy Carlyle – Jets Post Game (MLHS)
• Loss to Jets crushes Maple Leafs’ playoff hopes (TorSun)
• Maple Leafs feel wrath of fans after loss to Jets in home finale (TorSun)
• Leafs are still alive in the standings, but look dead on the ice (TorSun)
• Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf in Leafs doghouse vs. Jets (TorStar)
• Leafs Postgame: Losenipeg (TLN)
• Game Review: Game #79, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 vs Winnipeg Jets 4 (MLHS)
• Maple Leafs’ Franson says season has been ‘average’ (TorSun)
• Toronto Maple Leafs decrease already slim playoff chances with loss to Winnipeg Jets (NP)
• Mirtle: Leafs playoff hopes all but toast after lacklustre loss to Jets (G&M/Mirtle)
• Re-signing Bolland should be Leafs’ top off-season priority (LOL TorSun)
• The top forwards in the NHL today (Hockey Writers)