The Maple Leafs look to stop the bleeding defensively tonight in a meeting of the League’s two highest scoring teams.
Jonathan Bernier is expected to be a game time decision with his flu illness. James Reimer will start his second game in as many nights if Bernier still isn’t up to it.
Potentially without their starting goalie and haemorrhaging shots against at the moment, more of the same from the Leafs defensively is a very frightening prospect against a team of Tampa’s offensive ability. Will the fear of Stamkos knock some sense into the Leafs and force them to tighten up defensively? It seems unlikely, but you never know.
The Leafs and Lightning each have 11 players with 14 or more points this season, which is matched by no other team in the League. However, the Lightning are the second best possession team by CF% this season, allow the second fewest shot attempts against per 60 minutes, and the fewest shots in the league per 60 minutes at 5v5.
One place where the Leafs hold an edge on paper is in net, contingent on Bernier’s status, and on special teams. The Leafs have superior powerplay and penalty killing units, both just inside the top 10 in the NHL (Lightning are middle of the pack on both sides of the man advantage).
Steve Stamkos is slumping by his standards, pointless in his last three. If he’s been watching the Leafs defend the past couple of weeks especially, he’s going to be licking his lips at the chance to bump the “slump.”
The one constant with the Leafs team, an unfortunate one, is that they’re going to be outplayed. That seems like a virtual certainty against a Lightning team that is dictating possession consistently and scoring for fun. It’s just a question of whether the Leafs can score enough anyway and get the goaltending required to win.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning - Head to Head
| Head to Head: | Maple Leafs | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-13-3 (.597% - 15th) | 22-11-4 (.649% - 8th) |
| Goal Differential | +14 (6th) | +22 (4th) |
| GF/G | 3.33 (1st) | 3.19 (2nd) |
| GA/G | 2.97 (25th) | 2.51 (13th) |
| PP | 20.4% (9th) | 18.5% (15th) |
| PK | 83.5 (10th) | 81.7 % (14th) |
| SF/G | 29.7 (18th) | 29.5 (19th) |
| SA/G | 34.4 (29th) | 27.6 (3rd) |
| 5v5 SF/G | 28.1 (20th) | 30.4 (8th) |
| 5v5 SA/G | 32.9 (27th) | 25.5 (1st) |
| 5v5 CF% | 45.1% (27th) | 53.9% (2nd) |
| 5v5 FF% | 46.1% (27th) | 52.5% (6th) |
| 5v5 Sh% | 9.73% (1st) | 9.06% (3rd) |
| 5v5 Sv% | 92.24% (18th) | 92.09% (21st) |
| FO% | 49.0% (19th) | 50.0% (14th) |
PP=Power Play %; PK=Penalty Kill %; GF/G=Goals for per game; GA/G=Goals against per game; SF/G=Shots for per game; SA/G=Shots against per game; Sh%=Shooting %; Sv%=Save percentage; F0%=Faceoff percentage; CF%=Corsi for % (shot attempts: shots, blocked shots, missed shots); FF%=Fenwick for% (shots+missed shots)
Toronto Maple Leafs Lineup
Joffrey Lupul – Tyler Bozak – Phil Kessel
(8-8-16) – (13-16-29) – (17-21-38) (38G, 83PTS TOT)
James van Riemsdyk – Nazem Kadri – Mike Santorelli
(16-18-34) – (11-12-23) – (7-16-22) (34G, 79PTS TOT)
Daniel Winnik – Peter Holland – David Clarkson
(1-13-14) – (8-7-15) – (9-4-13) (18G, 42PTS TOT)
David Booth – Trevor Smith – Carter Ashton
(1-1-2) – (0-2-2) – (0-0-0) (2G, 4PTS TOT)
Dion Phaneuf – Cody Franson
(2-16-18) – (5-17-22) (7G, 40PTS TOT)
Jake Gardiner – Roman Polak
(2-7-9) – (4-2-6) (6G, 15PTS TOT)
Morgan Rielly – Stephane Robidas
(4-8-12) – (0-5-5) (4G, 16PTS TOT)
James Reimer
(6-5-0, .902SV%, 2.65GAA)
Jonathan Bernier
Scratched: Korbinian Holzer
Injured: Leo Komarov (concussion), Richard Panik (head)
Tampa Bay Lightning Lineup
Jonathan Drouin – Steven Stamkos – Cedric Paquette
(2-12-14) – (19-17-36) – (5-2-7) (26G, 57PTS TOT)
J.T. Brown – Tyler Johnson – Nikita Kucherov
(1-3-4) – (13-24-37) – (15-19-34) (29G, 75PTS TOT)
Alex Killorn – Valtteri Filppula – Ryan Callahan
(8-7-15) – (6-20-26) – (11-17-28) (25G, 69PTS TOT)
Brenden Morrow – Brian Boyle – Brett Connolly
(2-2-4) – (6-3-9) – (6-0-6) (14G, 19PTS TOT)
Anton Stralman – Victor Hedman
(2-12-14) – (3-11-14) (5G, 28PTS TOT)
Matt Carle – Radko Gudas
(3-6-9) – (2-3-5) (5G, 14PTS TOT)
Mark Barberio – Andrej Sustr
(0-1-1) – (0-5-5) (0G, 6PTS TOT)
Ben Bishop
(17-6-2, .915SV%, 2.30GAA)
Evgeni Nabokov
Injured: Ondrej Palat (lower body), Jason Garrison (undisclosed)
