Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Matthew Knies
Photo: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Just like that, after collecting nine of the last 10 available points, the Maple Leafs are three points back of the top spot in the Atlantic Division (with a game in hand on Detroit).

The winning run includes three impressive wins over Florida, Carolina, and Tampa Bay, in which the Leafs — once among the leakiest teams in the league this season — allowed just two goals combined. Have they rediscovered their winning formula? How can they alleviate the big headache that is their ailing power play?

We’ll cover all of that and more in this week’s Notes, Quotes, Tweets of the Week, and Five Things.

Notes

Dennis Hildeby, Toronto Marlies
Photo: Christian Bonin/TSGPhoto.com

– There’s still a long way to go, but one of the quick and dirty ways to evaluate teams is by goal differential, and to this point, the Leafs are one of nine teams in the East with a positive one. Seven of those teams hold a playoff spot (Montreal also holds one with a minus-seven goal differential), while Philadelphia joins the Leafs in the black despite sitting outside of a playoff spot.

Rather quietly, the Leafs have started to really climb up the goals against per game ranks, too. On November 22nd, the Leafs ranked dead last in goals against per game. Now, following a brilliant Dennis Hildeby shutout, they’re up to 20th. A large part of it has been goaltending — Joseph Woll was excellent before getting hurt, too — but they are defending better and are starting to get to their game. 

– The Leafs still get outpossessed on the whole, and that likely won’t change under this coaching staff, but they at least have gotten back to controlling the high-danger areas. In their four December games, the Leafs are essentially breaking even in expected goals (49.92), which ranks 18th in that time. They are at 52.61 percent when adjusting for score and venue (14th), and they’re ahead in high-danger attempts overall (43-36), despite getting out-attempted. That is their winning recipe, as it was last season. It’s likely good enough to get them into the playoffs, but the question is whether it’s enough for them to actually do any damage in the spring.

– It’s a somewhat similar story with the Leafs’ top two players. The Leafs are 6-2-2 in their last 10, even though William Nylander has missed one of those games and has been held pointless in five others. He’s currently mired in a four-game pointless streak and hasn’t played well overall during this stretch. Auston Matthews has been better of late, but the second-highest-paid player in the league is still clicking well under a point-per-game, even if he is scoring at a 41-goal pace (he also has three empty-net goals). Among players who have played at least 20 games this season, Matthews’ .83 points per game rate is tied with defenseman Jakob Chychrun and rookie Brett Sennecke, just ahead of players like Dylan Strome and Ivan Barbashev, and just below Nazem Kadri, Nick Schmaltz, and Chris Kreider. Clearly, this isn’t the company Matthews should be keeping. 

On one hand, we can see a path to the Leafs gelling into a really good team if their best two players get their act together, if Chris Tanev returns, and their goaltending can stay healthy. On the flip side, what could they realistically accomplish if their top stars play like this?

– I wrote last week that Scott Laughton needed to start chipping in some offense as part of his team contributions, and since then, he has three goals in four games, including a shorthanded beauty against Montreal to tie the game in the third period. So far this season, Laughton has played just over 22 minutes in 5v4 penalty killing situations, and he’s only been outscored 2-1. One of those goals was a funny bounce that Ben Kindel batted out of the air, too. It’s only nine games, and it’s not all Laughton’s doing, but since he returned from injury (again), the Leafs are killing nearly 91 percent of their penalties, which ranks third in the league. He is clearly an excellent penalty killer, with his knack for making reads and disrupting power plays. 

– Since his healthy scratch against Washington, Max Domi promptly produced five points in three games, tied for second on the team in scoring in that time (Bobby McMann is first with six points, by the way!). He’s played primarily on the top line alongside Matthews and Knies, and while the goals haven’t really come easily for the line, they are winning their minutes 2-1 overall in those five games, they’ve generated 20 high-danger shot attempts, and they’re carrying over 63 percent of the expected goals.

It’s an extremely small sample size, but Domi has been good with Matthews whenever they’ve played together since he arrived in Toronto two-plus years ago. It’s arguably the only place Domi works in the team’s lineup, and he looks far more engaged there. Matthews has been dangerous — even if he’s not finishing — and this has really been the first streak of games in which the top line has generally looked good on a consistent basis. 

– Don’t want to be too hard on a 20-year-old rookie, but thought Easton Cowan experienced a real welcome-to-the-NHL week against Carolina and Florida. It probably started against Pittsburgh — even though he scored a really nice goal in that game — as he committed some egregious turnovers on the wall after his goal, and it carried through the week against structured, contending, veteran teams. There are plenty of examples of Cowan turning it over at the Leafs’ blue line among those three games, especially.

The reality is that Cowan will be a lot more prone to those lapses because he didn’t smooth it out in the AHL first. He has to learn on the job in the NHL. The question will be how fast he can develop in the deep end. The Cowan-Tavares-Nylander line is up 6-3 in goals, even though Nylander, in particular, hasn’t played well in at least a week. But they are below water in attempts, expected goals, and scoring chances despite offensive starts and usage. It is more on Nylander to drive it, especially compared to a rookie in Cowan, but the overall line needs to be a lot better.

– It receives a lot of airtime when there is no response, so it’s only fair to note Dakota Joshua stepping up and fighting after Dakota Mermis took a cheap hit against Tampa. It took a little time in the scrum to get there, and he didn’t fight the player who delivered the hit, but the Leafs did respond in a sequence where, if you watch it back, none of the Leafs players on the ice saw the original incident (they all turned up ice because Mermis flipped the puck out). They saw a teammate down hurt and rallied in support. It hasn’t always been the best response from this team, but it was good to see it in this case. Throughout the game, Yanni Gourde made a point of driving the net, and the Leafs met him every time with appropriate pushback. It was good to see the physical response and engagement.

Quotes

Troy Stecher, Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman
Troy Stecher, Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman

“Seventh team of my career … Career, in a sense, in my mind, is kind of on the line, and you either show up and you play, or you fail and you sink. Just trying to leave it all out there and, so far, it’s been going well, but no time for complacency.”

– Troy Stecher on his opportunity in Toronto

Troy Stecher is such an easy player to cheer for. He leaves it all out there on the ice, he’s articulate and thoughtful off the ice, and so far, he’s playing great hockey, too. In his last five games, he’s averaging 23:51 in ice time, has three points, and is a ridiculous +10. His partner, Jake McCabe, is +11 and looks significantly better now that he’s back on the left side. McCabe is averaging 23:50 over those five games as well.

“It obviously comes up, for sure. I went back to this unit, looking at some video and some numbers early on in the year. These guys — Rielly, Matthews, Tavares, Knies, Nylander — were actually pretty good. They created a lot of opportunities. It didn’t go in the net. A lot of the time, when it doesn’t go in the net, you make changes and go from there. That was my reasoning for that.

What you bring up is a valid point. I have definitely thought about it.”

– Craig Berube on his current power play strategy of reuniting the original top unit to start the year

There is some truth in what Berube is saying. The unit didn’t look nearly as bad as people seemed to think early on, and you generally want to believe the top players can figure it out and turn it around. But the top unit is so stale right now and is clearly devoid of even a smidge of confidence. Their second unit is the only one that looks at all dangerous. Their last power play goal as a team came via PP2 against Pittsburgh.

Auston Matthews hasn’t scored a power-play goal since October 24. William Nylander did score one against Montreal a few weekends ago on a 6v4, but before then, his previous 5v4 goal came on November 9. Matthew Knies hasn’t scored a power play since October 28. For John Tavares, it’s November 8. Matthews, specifically, has just two power-play points the entire season. It’s not just a small rut; it’s months of futility now.

Tweets of the Week

Dennis Hildeby, Maple Leafs
Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA Today Sports/Imagn Images

This is true, and as we wrote last week, Dennis Hildeby was already showing he deserved more work and that the team didn’t need to run Joseph Woll into the ground. It was very predictable that Woll would get hurt if they kept running him out there, and it was disappointing to see them fall into the same trap they did with Anthony Stolarz. There’s a clear history with both of their goalies, and there was no need to overextend them. Luckily, Hildeby is more than holding the fort, so it seems to be a forgotten footnote, but it shouldn’t have happened.

This third line has started to cool off offensively, as was expected, but their real impact over the course of the season will come through taking on defensive assignments to free up the Matthews and Tavares lines.

Against Tampa Bay, for example, Nic Roy played more directly against Brayden Point than either of Matthews or Tavares. Strangely, against Montreal at home, Berube gave Montreal the exact matchups they wanted, as he went head-to-head with Matthews against Suzuki and Roy against their third line. The Montreal game aside, Berube has generally given Roy the bulk of defensive faceoffs and a steady diet of tough matchups, and it is starting to free up Matthews.

Last season, Matthews finished with the second-lowest offensive zone start percentage of his career, but it’s already trending up nearly three percent and counting, especially as the Roy line comes together and Scott Laughton is finally healthy. It sounds like a small thing, but it adds up over the course of an 82-game season.

While the American Thanksgiving checkpoint is generally significant — and it still might shake out that way — this 2025-26 NHL season appears to be more of an outlier. If nothing else, the Leafs didn’t really dig themselves a massive hole to climb out of despite their poor start. They still have work to do, but this is why getting healthy and cleaning up their act on a basic level was always going to get them right back in the mix.

Against Carolina, in particular, Simon Benoit and Philippe Myers were out-attempted 19-1, and the “1” was the Laughton goal that bounced off the stanchion on a dump-in. They took zero offensive-zone draws, to be fair, but 19-1 in 10 minutes of action is hard to fathom.

Not coincidentally, I thought Benoit played his best game of the season against Tampa Bay after Myers left the lineup. He was physical, he was active, and he actually kick-started the sequence leading to their one five-on-five goal when he stonewalled Jake Guentzel at the Leafs’ blue line and chipped it up for the odd man rush. Benoit has battled through his struggles this season, but with a decent partner in third-pairing minutes, he usually finds a way.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

1.  I think the forward group is in a good spot right now, whereby they’re asking some tough questions each night in terms of who is in and who is out, and the coaching staff is pissing off two players who can play in the league per night. This is a good spot to be, and while it’s important to string together some continuity (as they have lately), it’s also important to hold players accountable.

Dakota Joshua and Max Domi were both begging to be scratched for weeks; they finally were, and they’ve played much better since. Calle Jarnkrok came in after a stint in the press box and gave them a good game against Tampa; with the Tampa goalie pulled, Jarnkrok made a nice read late in the game to deflect a puck out. Even still, I’d probably draw Nick Robertson back in for Jarnkrok, especially against San Jose (to get some depth scoring in the lineup against them), and overall, I’d be mindful of keeping players on their toes.

Easton Cowan is teetering on the edge of needing a reset, even though he picked up a broken assist against Tampa Bay. He’s really struggling on the wall defensively with turnovers, especially against high-quality opposition like Carolina and Florida. That’s natural for a rookie, but it doesn’t mean he doesn’t need to take a step back on occasion as part of the learning process.

2.  One wrinkle I think I’d like to see at forward is Scott Laughton receiving looks on the left wing beside John Tavares and William Nylander. It happened for a shift in Carolina when Cowan missed a shift due to some struggles, and the line nearly scored. Laughton brings a bit more of a veteran game with some defensive diligence and the ability to grind on the forecheck as an older/stronger player compared to Cowan. We can see Laughton’s game building now, and he offers more than just a 4C shift.

Since he returned from injury, Cowan is playing almost three and a half minutes more per game than Laughton, which is too big a gap for me between the players, especially as Cowan battles through some rookie struggles while logging about 17.5 minutes per game. They can also move Laughton up to the third line with Nic Roy, depending on who is rolling on any given night.

3.    If Chris Tanev does return shortly, I think I’d keep the McCabe-Stecher and Rielly-OEL pairs together and ease Tanev back in with Benoit on a defensive-zone pairing. The role makes sense, and they played a little together last season. If nothing else, they can defend. It’s easier said than done when Tanev is at their disposal, but they realistically need to manage his minutes, and as long as their top four defense keeps playing as they are, it isn’t difficult to ease him in and adjust in-game as needed. If Tanev isn’t back and Dakota Mermis is out, I’d call up Matt Benning or Henry Thrun and give one of them a look. Philippe Myers simply hasn’t been close to NHL calibre this season and has played his way off the team at this point.

4.   I think I maintain it’s split-the-power-play-units time. The Leafs aren’t even remotely close right now on the power play. It’s somewhere between deflating and depressing watching them with the man advantage. They don’t even need to shake up the lines; just keep the top line together, with Knies in front, Matthews on one half-wall, Domi on the other, McMann in the bumper (where he is quite effective), and Rielly up top. The second unit is the second line, with Cowan on one half-wall, Nylander on the other, OEL up top, Tavares in the bumper, and Roy in front.

From there, they must simplify by funneling pucks to the net with traffic, and it doesn’t have to be shots from the half-wall. The Leafs used to be really effective at using the bumper for high-tip plays under Mike Babcock. Nylander and Matthews can thread shot-passes for Tavares, Knies, etc. to deflect. They can bump pucks down low to Knies and Roy and attempt some backdoor plays. There is zero creativity on the unit right now; it’s all perimeter passing instead of funneling to the bumper/backdoor for higher percentage plays.

The coaching staff really needs to get this sorted. If they do, I’d feel a lot better about their overall prospects this season.

5.   I know it was already discussed above, but Craig Berube seems to have dodged a bullet after overplaying Joseph Woll. Dennis Hildeby has been excellent. There was no need to overextend Woll, but the coaching staff is getting bailed out of their poor decision. You’d think they would have learned from the Anthony Stolarz situation earlier this season, or the general injury history of both goalies. We’ll see if the third (?) time is the charm, I guess.

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