Game 51 Scoring Chances: Flyers 1 vs. Maple Leafs 0

Toronto will be thrilled to see January end, as they lost a 9th straight to close out the month and set a franchise record for fewest goals scored in a month.

I actually watched the last two periods of this game over again, because on my first viewing the chance numbers I had were incredibly low. The second view didn’t increase them; the teams combined for only 20 chances, one of the lowest totals in games I’ve tracked. For a team that’s struggling to score, to put it lightly, playing a close checking, low-chance game on the road isn’t a bad idea, but the Leafs ended up falling behind early, and never generated much of a push to get back level. They also got only one power-play chance, and did very little with it against one of the league’s worst penalty kills.

Status	Overall			Even Strength			ES Close
Team	TOR	PHI	%	TOR	PHI	%	TOR	PHI	%
1	4	4	50.0%	4	3	57.1%	4	3	57.1%
2	3	4	42.9%	2	1	66.7%	2	1	66.7%
3	3	2	60.0%	2	2	50.0%	0	0	-
Total	10	10	50.0%	8	6	57.1%	6	4	60.0%

Toronto actually managed to out-chance the Flyers, but four ES chances in the last 40 minutes, when they were chasing the game, is a pretty weak performance, and has been a consistent theme for the Leafs when chasing the lead.

Club	St	P	Time	TSc	Osc	Note	Toronto						Philadelphia
TOR	ES	1	18:02	0	0	Lupul from Kadri	26	43	19	4	51	34	10	28	93	15	22	35
PHI	ES	1	15:55	0	0	GOAL! Del Zotto from Straka	26	43	19	4	51	34	25	17	51	15	22	35
PHI	SH	1	13:09	0	1	MacDonald from Del Zotto	23	26	46	55	34	-	14	18	40	15	47	35
TOR	ES	1	10:03	0	1	Kessel from Bozak	42	81	21	44	46	34	14	18	24	32	55	35
PHI	ES	1	04:34	0	1	White from Simmonds	43	19	71	8	46	34	25	17	51	26	47	35
TOR	ES	1	03:25	0	1	Winnik deflects Gardiner shot	24	26	18	4	51	34	10	28	93	26	47	35
PHI	ES	1	02:33	0	1	Umberger deflects L Schenn shot	42	81	21	44	46	34	14	18	24	15	22	35
TOR	ES	1	01:54	0	1	Kadri from Rielly	43	19	71	8	44	34	40	76	78	32	55	35
TOR	ES	2	12:56	0	1	Kadri drives	26	43	19	44	46	34	10	28	93	15	22	35
PHI	ES	2	12:32	0	1	Straka drives wide	23	18	71	4	51	34	25	17	51	26	47	35
TOR	ES	2	08:10	0	1	Kadri wide from Lupul	26	43	19	44	46	34	40	76	78	15	22	35
PHI	SH	2	06:34	0	1	Simmonds deflects B Schenn shot wide	23	26	46	55	34	-	10	17	28	93	32	35
TOR	SH	2	05:38	0	1	Holland from Komarov	24	47	4	8	34	-	10	14	17	93	32	35
PHI	SH	2	05:18	0	1	Read from loose puck	24	26	4	8	34	-	10	14	17	24	15	35
PHI	SH	2	05:05	0	1	Lecavalier post from Couturier	24	26	4	8	34	-	14	40	17	24	15	35
PHI	ES	3	11:56	0	1	Giroux from loose puck	42	81	21	44	46	34	10	28	93	26	47	35
TOR	ES	3	11:38	0	1	Komarov from Holland	24	25	47	4	8	34	40	76	78	26	47	35
TOR	ES	3	05:15	0	1	Rielly wraparound	24	47	18	44	55	34	40	76	78	26	47	35
PHI	ES	3	01:22	0	1	Van de Velde wide from Voracek	43	19	71	44	51	34	76	93	78	32	55	35
TOR	EN	3	00:01	0	1	Kessel wide from Franson	42	47	81	71	21	4	14	17	24	32	55	35

Player-by Player data:

Player	Overall				Even Strength				ES Close
	For	Against	Diff	TOI	For	Against	Diff	TOI	For	Against	Diff
Franson	5	4	1	24:47	3	2	1	21:38	2	2	0
Granberg	3	3	0	12:43	2	1	1	11:35	1	1	0
Panik	2	1	1	09:44	2	1	1	09:18	1	1	0
Lupul	4	3	1	16:24	4	3	1	15:17	4	2	2
Van Riemsdyk	2	2	0	19:45	1	2	-1	18:37	1	1	0
Smith	0	3	-3	07:36	0	1	-1	05:36	0	1	-1
Holland	4	2	2	17:52	3	0	3	15:59	1	0	1
Santorelli	1	0	1	09:54	1	0	1	09:20	0	0	0
Winnik	4	5	-1	17:14	4	1	3	14:27	4	1	3
Bozak	2	2	0	19:26	1	2	-1	18:18	1	1	0
Kadri	4	3	1	16:11	4	3	1	15:04	4	2	2
Rielly	5	3	2	21:48	5	3	2	20:13	4	1	3
Polak	3	5	-2	21:43	3	3	0	19:34	3	2	1
Komarov	4	0	4	13:41	2	0	2	12:43	0	0	0
Gardiner	2	3	-1	23:36	2	3	-1	22:44	2	2	0
Holzer	1	2	-1	14:26	1	0	1	12:27	0	0	0
Clarkson	2	3	-1	09:33	1	3	-2	08:41	1	2	-1
Kessel	2	2	0	20:31	1	2	-1	19:23	1	1	0
Reimer	9	10	-1	59:06	8	6	2	53:06	6	4	2

The top line was offensively non-existent in this game, on for just a single ES chance. What offense the Leafs did generate came from Daniel Winnik, Nazem Kadri and Joffrey Lupul, who all finished at least +2 at ES Close, and were each on for four chances. It’s been a regular feature in the last couple of weeks, but the depth forwards on the third and fourth lines were not involved offensively either, although Holland and Komarov were on for the Leafs‘ lone ES chances in the third period.

Morgan Rielly has been one of the few players who have thrived in the Horachek regime, and that continued tonight, with a very good game, finishing a team high +3 at ES Close. Roman Polak also had a solid game, the only other Leaf defenceman to finish in the positive at ES Close. Jake Gardiner led the team in ES ice time, and got tough zone starts, with a decent response, finishing at even. Cody Franson, who had similarly tough minutes, also had a decent chances game. Korbinian Holzer’s twelve ES minutes didn’t feature a single Philly chance, which was a nice defensive effort.

Cumulative numbers this season:

Overall	Pos	#	Even Strength				ES Close
			For	Against	%	TOI	For	Against	%
Winnik	F	49	181	195	48.1%	13:03	100	88	53.2%
Komarov	F	32	104	94	52.5%	12:10	54	53	50.5%
Kadri	F	49	241	259	48.2%	14:47	145	146	49.8%
Franson	D	49	266	283	48.5%	16:05	158	161	49.5%
Clarkson	F	51	190	201	48.6%	12:18	98	105	48.3%
Bernier	G	36	491	576	46.0%	45:13	300	342	46.7%
Phaneuf	D	48	267	317	45.7%	17:05	160	183	46.6%
Rielly	D	50	262	306	46.1%	16:18	139	164	45.9%
Gardiner	D	48	225	261	46.3%	17:15	124	147	45.8%
Lupul	F	28	126	152	45.3%	13:39	69	82	45.7%
Polak	D	41	199	258	43.5%	17:53	119	142	45.6%
Kessel	F	51	275	326	45.8%	15:15	163	196	45.4%
Panik	F	45	95	107	47.0%	08:59	56	68	45.2%
Bozak	F	51	261	301	46.4%	15:07	142	175	44.8%
Santorelli	F	51	192	231	45.4%	13:45	102	128	44.3%
Smith	F	35	70	84	45.5%	08:31	39	52	42.9%
Van Riemsdyk	F	51	247	330	42.8%	15:03	147	197	42.7%
Reimer	G	20	249	316	44.1%	43:14	118	168	41.3%
Holland	F	41	109	162	40.2%	11:41	57	83	40.7%
Robidas	D	38	145	196	42.5%	15:07	72	118	37.9%
Holzer	D	22	84	118	41.6%	15:23	46	78	37.1%
Booth	F	28	42	74	36.2%	08:49	25	47	34.7%

There’s been a lot of talk about moving upcoming UFAs Cody Franson and Daniel Winnik, and these numbers show that the Leafs should expect some good return from both. They’ve consistently been two of the best Leafs in terms of chances, and Franson in particular has been clearly the best on the defence in this table for the bulk of the year.