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The insiders discuss possible free agent targets for the Maple Leafs and how Connor McDavid’s massive contract impacts negotiations with Auston Matthews a year from now, the Leafs are slapped with a big cap overage penalty, all is quiet between the Leafs and pending UFA Brian Boyle, and more in the links.


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Elliotte Friedman: McDavid looking at $13.25M for 8 years (Fan 590)
The NHL insider provides his thoughts on the Oilers reportedly working on a long term contract with Connor McDavid, the domino effect of the deal, the valuation of draft picks, what price Auston Matthews will demand when his contract expires, and the free agency plan for the Maple Leafs.

On putting the McDavid contract in perspective:

They’re going to make a lot more than $13 million off of him. The bottom line is there is a lot of talk that he was only going to sign for five because a number of players did that – Crosby did that, Malkin did that, Stamkos did that, Kane and Toews did that. And then they went to their third contracts, which were their big ones. Edmonton gets a victory out of that. I know there is some people who can’t wrap their head around $13.25, but you can’t do back-diving contracts anymore. You’re going to make a fortune off of him. He’s going to be the best player in the league.

It’s a win for them. They get him for nine more years. The one thing I always look at is the percentage of the cap. If you take a look at it, Malkin and Crosby both came in around 15% of the cap when they took their second deals, and they both got $8.7 million. Sid still makes $8.7 million, and now Malkin makes $9.5 million. They both came in around 15.3%. McDavid, if the cap stays flat, is going to be at 17.6% in 2018-19. The cap usually moves a bit, so as long as it does, I think it’s going to stay in line.

On setting the market for Matthews’ next contract:

If you’re the Toronto Maple Leafs and all of a sudden you’re looking at Auston Matthews, now you’re thinking, “Okay, is this the number we have to budget for in two years?” I look at it from the Players Association’s point of view and say, “No matter what happens, you’re getting 50/50.” Whether McDavid signs for 7, 10 or 13 million, you are getting 50% of the revenue with the league. You’re sharing it. Maybe you do want your star players making more money, but it affects the money other players make around the league. That includes escrow, and when players get injured, that affects how much money the players make because it creates more escrow. People say that it’s a win for the Players Association and a win for the best players – okay, but I also look at it as the system being fixed to a certain amount. If you go over your share, you have to give money back. Sometimes when people say to me, “the PA pushes people to get the most money,” I’m sure there are people in the PA – maybe even other players – who would prefer that didn’t happen because it affects how much they take home at the end of the year.

I think we’re in the ballpark. You never know what can happen in two years. Where is the cap going? What does Matthews think? Is he happy in Toronto? There is no reason to believe he isn’t. In two years, when you’re doing this – and they could do it next summer – is he happy with the way the team is going? Does he look at McDavid’s contract and think it’s important to him to be the highest paid guy, or his agents, to be the highest-paid guy? What do the Leafs try to convince him to do? You have to look at this and say this is kind of the benchmark for where Matthews is going to be.

One thing you look at in Edmonton is – not only is this about jerseys, but you look last year in the playoffs, and Edmonton could sell $80 [tickets] to watch the game in the concourse. Some of that – you could argue how much of that – is Connor McDavid. Those fans love the Oilers but they’ve got a superstar player that makes you want to be a part of it even more. Edmonton, like Toronto did, is building condos there. How many of those condos are they going to sell, or how much money are they going to make off the hotel and stuff like that, partially because of Connor McDavid? I think it goes into all of that. When I see the number and people say, “Well, is he worth it?” From a business point of view, that arena and everything that’s going on around it, how much more excitement is there because they’ve got a guy wearing #97?

Who moves the needle? There is no question that Connor McDavid moves the needle. Even in Toronto, they were flat here the last couple of years and you don’t think Auston Matthews moves the needle in the same way Connor McDavid did? Absolutely, 100%.

On the Leafs‘ intentions for the rest of the offseason:

I think the way they’re looking at it is: “What can we do for a couple of years? What can we do for a couple of years before the big contracts come in?” Matthews, Nylander and Marner – they’re obviously going to have to pay these guys in a pretty hefty way. I think they look at it in terms of, “We’ve got a window open now. We took the President’s Trophy winner five times in over time in a six-game series and played them pretty hard. What can we do there?” I think that’s kind of where they are right now. “What are we going to do to give us a chance to win in the next couple of years?” We mentioned whether they would take a look at a guy like Joe Thornton, who Mike Babcock knows very well, and I’m sure those are the kinds of things that they are exploring. I am looking forward to seeing what they come up with. As we know now, since Lou Lamoriello got there, it much harder to figure out what they’re up to, but I definitely have the sense that they are trying to do something very big to give them a chance in the next couple of seasons.

McKenzie: Mike Babcock loves Patrick Marleau (TSN1050)
TSN Hockey insider Bob McKenzie joins Naylor & Landsberg to discuss Connor McDavid’s contract scenario, what it means for Auston Matthews and the Maple Leafs young stars, Toronto’s interest in Patrick Marleau and more.

On the William Nylander second contract negotiation:

I’m not sure what the Leafs’ philosophy will be on that. If I were the Leafs — and this is a case because you’ve got Matthews, because you’ve got Nylander, because you’ve got Marner — you may want to bridge one of them. I don’t know, but how do you pick which one? Because these guys are such good players or appear to be such good players, the bridge deal is fraught with peril for the Toronto Maple Leafs. If you give Mitch Marner or William Nylander a two-year deal and they continue to do what they did this past season and build on that, you’re okay for the first two years, but you look out scout. They’ll have arbitration rights. You want to try to go to that immediate deal right out of entry-level, not unlike what the Oilers did with Nugent-Hopkins. It was done with Tavares, it was done with Stamkos, it was done with Taylor Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle. It used to be the standard 6×6 give or take a half a million, depending on the player. Jeff Skinner got that kind of deal when he came out of entry-level in Carolina.

But you might be talking about players that are far greater than those other players. What is the number? Do you do six, or do you try to make it seven or eight? I wouldn’t have the answer to the question, other than that Nylander, Marner and Matthews are great players and they’re going to command substantial earning power. It’s just a matter of how you structure it, whether it’s 2, 5, 7 or 8, and accordingly, you start to get into what the cap number might be. You’ve got to try to look at and roll it out and say, “When is this all going to happen?” If we go long-term with all of these guys, we know what the nut is for the next seven years. If we stage it, then we’ve got certain guys coming out at certain times and we’re at the risk of getting caught in a salary arbitration-pressured home run, not unlike what Montreal did with PK Subban.

On the Leafs’ level of interest in Patrick Marleau:

That’s a good question and I don’t really have an answer yet. I know this: Mike Babcock loves Patrick Marleau. Loves, loves, loves Patrick Marleau. Now, is Patrick Marleau what the Leafs need right now? Maybe not. Do they need a scoring winger? Now, if they’re going to play him as a center — which he hasn’t done a lot of, I don’t think, as much lately in the NHL — then I would ask, “Where are you playing him at center?” You’ve got Auston Matthews and Nazem Kadri and Tyler Bozak. Does that mean Bozak is gone but he’s got a year left on his deal? There are lots of questions there, but if Marleau is viewed as a winger, that’s the position the Leafs least need help. I also know that’s a player that Mike Babcock tremendously values.

Leafs slapped with $5.37 million bonus overage penalty for 2017-18 (MLHS)
It’s important to note that this problem doesn’t just go away after 2017-18. The LTIR + entry-level bonus cocktail will continue to pose problems while Auston Matthews (two more years), Mitch Marner (two more years) and William Nylander (one more year) are on entry-level deals and the team is simultaneously taking advantage of LTIR relief on Horton’s contract. While Stephane Robidas’ contract is now off the books (as of July 1) and Joffrey Lupul has just one year remaining, Horton’s cap hit will remain with the Leafs until 2020.

Defence Shopping: What’s left for the Toronto Maple Leafs? — Part 1 (MLHS)
I’d argue Demers is a legitimate #4 who could help drive play in the right situation, but the Leafs might not be that situation. They already have Nikita Zaitsev locked in long-term at the same number – $4.5 million – and his rookie numbers suggest he is in a similar boat to Demers: a capable puck mover, solid even-strength point producer, and a respectable #4 who has some holes in his game defensively.

Talks quiet between Leafs and UFA C Boyle (TSN.ca)
The Maple Leafs acquired Boyle ahead of the trade deadline for a second-round pick in this year’s draft and centre Byron Froese. He posted three assists in 21 games with the Leafs in the regular season and added two assists in six playoff games. TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun reports several teams have reached out to Boyle since the window for all teams to talk to pending free agents opened Monday, but the Leafs have yet to show much interest. He notes, however, there’s still plenty of time for that to change before Boyle hits the open market on Saturday.

IceDogs draft Timothy Liljegren in CHL Import Draft (PPP)
Everyone has said all along that Liljegren would play in Sweden next year. In the SHL he’s playing against men many years his senior, facing challenging competition and being pushed to improve every shift. In the OHL he would be playing against peers from 16-20. He’d be a big fish in a small pond, facing competition around his skill level and not being as challenged as he would be in Sweden.