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The Toronto Maple Leafs and Jake McCabe have agreed to a five-year, $23.5 million contract extension worth $4.51 million per season against the cap.

If you noticed the above math doesn’t add up ($23.5 million over five years does not equal $4.51 million AAV), it’s because the Leafs are taking advantage of a deferred compensation structure, which is becoming more commonplace in the league. McCabe will collect second- and third-year bonus money at the end of the contract, thus lowering the cap hit from the face value of $4.7 million AAV to $4.51 million annually against the cap books. Here is Bob McKenzie’s explanation on deferred bonus payments and their benefits for both the team (cap-wise) and player (tax-wise), for the uninitiated:

McCabe turned 31 a few weeks ago — his birthday was on October 12 — so he’ll be 32 right around the time this contract kicks in next year. The signing makes McCabe the third defenseman in his thirties that Brad Treliving has locked into a long-term deal. Additionally, Morgan Rielly’s contract, which Treliving inherited, runs until 2030.

We will address those long-term ramifications shortly, but first, let’s discuss McCabe, the player.

McCabe is fresh off a career season pretty much across the board in 2023-24, setting new highs in goals, points, and the second-highest time on ice per game of his career at 20:39 per night. His shooting percentage of 11 percent was exactly double his career 5.5 shooting percentage. As a result, he was tied for 47th in even-strength points among all NHL defensemen last season and tied for 37th in even-strength goals.

McCabe’s versatility in successfully moving to the right side was a significant development for a Leafs team devoid of right-hand defensemen for most of last season. It was the first time he ever started a season on a playoff team, and he added a level of snarl/physicality to the Toronto blue line that has generally lacked it. By all accounts, he was a very good top-four defenseman last year.

Early in 2024-25, McCabe is playing even more minutes at 21:09 per game, has formed a successful pairing with newcomer Oliver Ekman-Larsson while playing the right side (though he was recently shifted back to the left opposite Chris Tanev on more of a shutdown pairing), and has three points in nine games (all at evens) to go along with a +6 rating.

McCabe is a bonafide top-four defenseman and has been deployed as one for nine seasons running. He was already a legitimate top-four defenseman when Kyle Dubas acquired him at the 2023 trade deadline, winning his minutes on one of the worst teams in the league before arriving in Toronto (outscoring opponents 41-39, even though the team recorded a -53 5v5 goal differential at the time). He has generally put up strong defensive numbers on bad teams throughout his career.

A team must pay up to keep those kinds of assets, especially those used in primary matchup roles against the opponent’s top players.

The Comparables and Long-Term Implications

As I look through the list of appropriate comparables, most of the contracts start with a five.

Nikita Zadorov recently signed a six-year, $5 million AAV contract. He’s three years younger at 29 (at the time of signing) than McCabe, but he doesn’t bring the top-four defenseman pedigree or the proven track record of a legitimate tough-minute-eating matchup defenseman. While Zadorov is younger, a mammoth, and scores at a higher clip, there’s a lot more uncertainty around what you’re getting from him.

Matt Roy is likely the better comparable. Like McCabe, he’s a legitimate top-four, tough-minute-eating defenseman. At 29, Roy signed for six years, $5.75 million AAV, and he is right-handed. The Capitals secured his services for his age 29-35 seasons, while the Leafs are signing McCabe for his age 32-37 seasons. They have about identical career production rates in terms of goals and points per game, as well as similar time on ice per game and tough matchup responsibilities. However, Roy is three years younger, and a premium is placed on right-handed defensemen. They are fairly similar players overall, but McCabe will make over a million less and is older.

Adam Larsson, another fair comparable to McCabe as a tough-minute-eating top-four defenseman who falls in his production range, is a year older than McCabe and signed a four-year deal at a $5.25 million AAV.

Regarding the annual average, we could’ve looked at the market and McCabe’s track record as a legitimate top-four defenseman and understood if the number started with a five – especially with a rising cap that’s once again expected to grow by over $4 million next summer. To whittle down the AAV, the Leafs probably gave McCabe a year more than they were totally comfortable with, but the AAV is good value based on the comparables.

Notably, the Leafs now have three other veteran defensemen signed to long-term deals. Rielly is 30, OEL is 33, and Chris Tanev is 34. When McCabe’s five-year deal starts next season, Rielly and Tanev will each have five years left on their contracts, and OEL will have three remaining. This will eventually be a problem.

As it stands, the Leafs have six defensemen already signed for next season, and Marshall Rifai’s two-year extension will kick in:

Rielly – Tanev
OEL – McCabe
Benoit – Liljegren
Rifai

Including Rifai in the mix and McCabe’s new contract, the Leafs would have roughly $25.5 million in cap space on the projected $92.5 million cap with seven forwards, seven defensemen, and two goalies under contract. In other words, there is $25.5 million for five to six forwards. All of Matthew Knies, Nick Robertson, Pontus Holmberg, Connor Dewar and Conor Timmins are RFAs. While they will have some cap space and flexibility to make moves, it does feel like something will eventually have to give with one of their defensemen (unless the unit has an incredible season) as well as up front with players like David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, and the last year of Ryan Reaves’ deal.

The team is clearly trying to win now when signing these veterans to long deals, age curves be damned. Nobody will care if they pull it off, but if they eventually need to blow it up after not winning a thing, it’s going to be a bad look with adverse consequences lasting years, just as it eventually caught up to the organization roughly 20 years earlier at the end of the Quinn-Sundin era.

Losing McCabe wouldn’t have been catastrophic, but replacing his minutes would have been very difficult and pricey. Defensively, he’s their second-best defenseman, and nobody else in their top four comes close to his physical style of play. There is also his versatility in playing either side and the options he gives them in terms of pairing McCabe with Tanev for a true shutdown pairing or dividing and conquering across two pairings.

A quick look at next summer’s UFA market includes defensemen Brent Burns, Neal Pionk, Aaron Ekblad, Jakub Chychrun, Brayden McNabb, Vladislav Gavrikov, Will Borgen, and Marcus Pettersson. Who knows which of those players, among others, will even make the UFA market, but there are definitely some reasonable options in the mix. The Leafs probably could have gotten younger next summer with some of the above-mentioned players, but I’m not sure they would have improved in most scenarios, and I doubt they would’ve saved any cap space.

The Leafs are also paying for the certainty to some degree; McCabe knows and likes the market, performs well here, and fits into the team. We’ve seen a trend developing with Treliving: He’s comfortable handing term to players he knows – Chris Tanev, OEL, Max Domi, and even Simon Benoit.

Ultimately, McCabe is a good defenseman and has proven to be a strong fit in this market both on and off the ice—which is important, as Toronto is not for everyone. His annual salary comes in below the market value, as long as he continues to perform as he has so far in Toronto, but there is always risk in signing a player late into his 30s.

Like Tanev, it’s a matter of how long McCabe can continue to perform as a legitimate top-four defenseman. If he can do it for the majority of the new contract, it’s going to be a really good deal. If he can’t but is excellent early on and the team wins a Cup, nobody will care. If he can’t sustain it for most of the contract and the Leafs don’t win anything, Brad Treliving — or whoever the Leafs’ GM is at that time — will have a problem on their hands.