The only piece of “hardware” this Maple Leafs core can claim through eight seasons is a shortened-season Canadian division title.
While the team has been really good in the regular season, including finishing fourth in the league twice, they’ve never won the Atlantic Division. To finish so high in the league standings twice and not win the division once has some bad luck associated with it. An Atlantic team has won the President’s Trophy in four of the past six seasons. All six of those seasons saw an Atlantic team go to the Stanley Cup Finals. Three times, an Atlantic team won it.
With 25 games to go in this season, it’s all right in front of the Leafs. They are currently first in the Atlantic, and the second-place Florida Panthers look like they will be without Matthew Tkachuk for the foreseeable future. The team to watch in the division race might be the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are just four points back of the Leafs and own the third-best goal differential in the league. The Leafs, it should be noted, are 3-0-0 against Tampa this season.
For a few years now, we have discussed the advantages of winning the division. This season, they’re even clearer than usual. Finish second, and they face either the reigning Stanley Cup champions or the experienced Tampa Bay Lightning. Win the division, and – as of right now – they are looking at a matchup against one of a trio of first-time playoff cores, be it the Detroit Red Wings, the Ottawa Senators, or the Columbus Blue Jackets. It’s possible the wildcard picture shifts, and the division winner ends up playing the New York Rangers or Boston Bruins; even if that’s the case, both of those teams have struggled for most of the season.
Advance past the first round, and they face the winner of the battle of Florida (which I would guess is a much longer battle than last season’s edition), followed by whoever comes out from the other side of the bracket.
If they finish second or third, they likely play both Florida teams without home ice for at least one of those series. The Leafs have one of the best home records in the East at 20-11-0, while Tampa Bay is .500 on the road, and all of Ottawa, Columbus, and Boston are well under .500 away from home. It guarantees nothing, of course, but every advantage helps, and the Leafs certainly can’t dismiss any opportunity to tip the playoff scales in their favour.
Following an up-and-down January (win four, lose three, win three, lose three), the Leafs are 5-1-0 in February. The trade deadline is a week and a half away, and they haven’t made any moves this season other than trading away Timothy Liljegren and cycling through internal options.
They’ve put themselves in a great spot and earned the management group rewarding them with additional reinforcements. This is a good team in a watered-down division. As much as they won’t receive their flowers until they accomplish a playoff run of significance, they have improved in net, on defense, and Matthew Knies and Bobby McMann have both taken notable steps forward to bolster the top of their forward lineup.
The stretch drive is officially here, and the division is there for the taking, with a real chance to take home a division title for the first time in a full season since 1999-200(!). It’s all in front of the Leafs; they just need to grab hold of this opportunity.
Notes
– Speaking of home ice, the Leafs completely flipped their matchups against Carolina at home compared to their first meeting. In the 6-3 loss back in January, Jordan Staal scored a hat trick against the Auston Matthews line. The Leafs switched it up at home, putting the Matthews line head-to-head against the Sebastian Aho line, while John Tavares took on the Staal matchup. At home, the Leafs also use David Kampf to take on tougher defensive matchups – the third and fourth forwards Kampf played the most against were Seth Jarvis and Aho. In the game in Carolina, Brind’Amour hard-matched fourth line versus fourth line. That’s the real benefit of home-ice advantage: you can control the matchups and tip them in your favour.
– Nick Robertson’s two-goal game pushed him into double-digit goal territory for the season. We’ve been noting the total number of Leafs double-digit goal-scorers throughout the season, and now that Robertson has hit the mark, it’s fair to wonder if anyone else on this team will.
There are 25 games left in the season, and the next highest goal scorer is Morgan Rielly with six. Max Pacioretty, Pontus Holmberg, and Steven Lorentz each have five goals, and unless William Nylander keeps passing to Holmberg for empty netters, it’s hard to picture either scoring five more times this season. It speaks to the Leafs’ depth situation that with 25 games to go, we’ve likely seen all the players who will hit double-digit goals already achieve it. It also speaks to the quality of the top of the Leafs’ lineup. The Leafs are 12th in the league overall in goals per game.
– The Bobby McMann – Max Domi – Nick Robertson line is now up 8-7 at five-on-five, and they are up in shot attempts and expected goals, but they’re also sitting at 75% offensive-zone starts. Most of their damage has come against bottomfeeders in the league – the Sabres, Islanders, and Blackhawks (half their goals came against those teams). The Leafs have lost a lot of games to bottomfeeders over the past few seasons, hurting their playoff standing, so it is important to have the depth players carry them in these games at times and alleviate some of the responsibility from the top players’ shoulders. At the same time, they will need to show a lot more to believe they are a viable playoff line.
– On the flip side, the David Kampf – Steven Lorentz combination starts just 25 percent of their faceoffs in the offensive zone, and they are up 10-9 in five-on-five goals, drawing even in shot attempts and ahead in expected goals. Both can skate and are responsible with the puck. Both are big, strong players. Kampf’s size doesn’t get much recognition – he’s 6’2 – but a big checking center and a big checking winger with some game (Lorentz is 6’4) has been a good combination for the Leafs this season. They push the play up ice, win their minutes, and take on tough assignments. Can’t ask for much more in the role.
– In both games this past weekend, William Nylander had empty-net looks where he could have shot. He’s second in the league in goals, and a 50-goal season is within reach, but on both plays, he passed it to Holmberg instead. Last season, he finished with 98 points and didn’t make a huge push or cheat to hit 100 points in the final few weeks. I appreciate that Nylander doesn’t sell out on these types of “achievements,” and if those goals go to Holmberg’s confidence in any way, it’s worth far more to the Leafs as a team overall than any individual milestone for an already extremely confident and productive Nylander.
– After a four-point weekend, Pontus Holmberg is up to 12 points in 45 games this year, a 22-point pace over 82 games. He’s moved up alongside the Leafs’ top players before, including the left wing of Matthews and Marner last season and now Tavares and Nylander. We can see why it sometimes works; he’s a good worker who gets in on the forecheck and goes to the net. When he gets the puck, he will hold onto it and make plays. Against Carolina, he set up Nylander in the slot from behind the net. Against Chicago, he hit Nylander with a good backside pass. Also against Chicago, he was set up for a one-timer attempt of his own in the slot and whiffed on it.
We’ve said it before, but Holmberg’s shot is where he needs to improve the most. He has just 46 shots on net in 45 games. Of his five goals, three are empty netters, one was Jordan Staal shooting it into his own net, and one was a shorthanded goal against the Devils that he swept along the ice from distance. The rest of the tools are there – and Craig Berube has said a few times he thinks there is more offense/skill than he’s shown at times – but he needs to work on his shot and produce more in general to become a regular up the lineup. As it is, he’s a versatile player who the Leafs can move around.
Quotes
“They defend well. They block shots and make simple plays with the puck. They are in good positions to be on the offensive side of things and be plus players.
It starts in our end with those guys, with how hard they are to play against. They have such good chemistry together and are so connected with each other, making little plays and moving the puck well. But it is the dirty work they do with the physical play, blocking shots, and defending the front of our net. They are really good at it.”
– Craig Berube on the Jake McCabe – Chris Tanev pairing
It seems the Leafs are locking into this Jake McCabe–Chris Tanev pairing after a few weeks of splitting them up. It makes sense in a vacuum; they soak up tough minutes and are still up 26-15 in goals at five-on-five. The question for the Leafs: What becomes of the rest of the defense unit?
“No, no, I won’t. Like I spoke about, Auston is my guy. He’s been my guy since day one. We’ve been through a lot of shit together. Unfortunately, we were against each other, but that’s the fun in these tournaments: you get to play against the guys that you really love.”
– Mitch Marner, when asked if he would rib Matthews after Canada beat the USA
Good on Mitch Marner for shutting this question down. I thought it was a good answer worth sharing.
“They’re outstanding—I mean, both of them. Any given night, you just trust them back there, and it gives our team so much confidence. Yeah, they were both awesome in Game 1 and Game 2 after the break. Awesome.”
– Max Domi on the Leafs’ goaltending
The Leafs are fourth in the league in five-on-five save percentage and eighth in overall save percentage. Anthony Stolarz is second in the league in goals against per game, and Joseph Woll and Stolarz are 9th and 10th, respectively, in goals saved above expected. Some argue that if you have two number ones, you have zero, but so far, the Leafs have had two quality starters they can’t go wrong with.
Tweets of the Week
The Maple Leafs & Senators have the easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the season pic.twitter.com/LqIUWeIhUv
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) February 22, 2025
The Leafs need to take advantage of their remaining schedule. As noted above, quite a few factors are lining up very well for them right now.
Reaves and Dewar have each been on for three 5v5 goals for this season.
The fourth line was on for three just this weekend, and the third line scored twice tonight as well.
It's sure nice to get some secondary scoring every now and then.
— Kevin Papetti (@KPapetti) February 24, 2025
It’s hard to undersell how much the Leafs’ depth has struggled to produce offensively. Even average NHL-level producers would make a significant difference. It’s forcing them to push Bobby McMann down the lineup to compensate for the lack of depth; otherwise, their third line has a combined 18 goals 57 games into the season. Their fourth line has some reasonable goal production from Steven Lorentz and David Kampf, but the other players with them haven’t been able to produce much of anything.
Leafs goals this weekend:
— Holmberg: 3
— Robertson: 2
— Kampf: 1
— Steeves: 1
— Tavares: 1
— Matthews: 1
— McCabe: 1
— Tanev: 1— Leafs Papi (@LeafsPapi_) February 24, 2025
It’s nice to see the Leafs stack up some wins led by bottom-six players, buying Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, in particular, time to reacclimate after the 4 Nations. Matthews hasn’t scored a goal on a goalie since January 22, while Marner is on a modest three-game pointless streak, which is his longest of the season. If/when those two heat up, it’ll be difficult for any team to catch the Leafs in the division.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. While I think the Morgan Rielly–Oliver Ekman-Larsson has quietly been good for weeks of NHL action now, I’d like to see what the defense unit looks like when they split them up and run Rielly-Myers and OEL-Timmins. I have liked both of those pairings, and the Benoit-Timmins/Myers pairing has experienced real troubles. Simon Benoit, in particular, is really struggling to advance the puck cleanly. It’s hard to remember the last time he made a clean breakout pass tape to tape.
To me, this is more in line with what you’d want the defense to be at the end of the day anyway: McCabe-Tanev, Rielly – [veteran righty], and OEL-Timmins, which has been a good offensive pairing and matches a righty with a lefty who both provide some special teams value. It gives them three lefty-righty pairings, and they can always move up OEL to play with Rielly whenever they want.
2. I think Alex Steeves has earned a continued look to this point. The offense was great against Carolina, but I was curious how he would respond the next night against Chicago, where I thought he was effective again. His forecheck led to one goal, and he laid a big hit on another one. That line was dangerous again, stringing together passing plays and cycle sequences throughout the game.
Chicago is a weak team, but most of the Leafs’ fourth-line iterations this season couldn’t provide those kinds of contributions. Steeves – plus Kampf’s forechecking – led to a Leafs goal in the game, even if Steeves didn’t collect a point on the play. I thought a skilled player on the line also gave Lorentz more confidence to make plays all weekend.
Steeves is clearly very confident right now after dominating the AHL, and he owns a great shot. I actually like his linemates right now, too; Kampf-Lorentz has been a good combination this season, one that has often been bogged down by the other players on their line (Ryan Reaves, Connor Dewar, etc.). Keep it rolling for now, and if Steeves continues to produce and/or other players struggle, he’ll eventually work his way up the lineup, similar to McMann.
3. Speaking of Bobby McMann, I think I understand why they are pushing him down to the third line to hopefully drive the unit (as he did on their first goal of the night against Chicago, even if it was on the power play), but they need to be mindful of his minutes. He played 12:40 against Carolina, which is simply too low. Against Chicago, he was up to 16:17, which is far more reasonable, but it was a weaker opponent, and the line played well as a result, so it was somewhat inflated. It’s a fine strategy for building some depth; they just have to be mindful of not losing McMann in the shuffle.
4. If the coaching staff wants McMann driving the third line and is looking for more ice-time opportunities, they should give him some looks on the penalty kill. He was good there last season and has the speed/size/strength combination to close off lanes and get the puck out. The PK has ticked up in February; they are 14th this month after ranking 20th in January. It has been fine, but it hasn’t been good or great to the point where it’s a locked-in unit.
5. I think it’s fair to start questioning whether Max Pacioretty should have a spot in the lineup when he is healthy. Who is coming out at this point? Pontus Holmberg is far more versatile, and Nick Robertson has scored double the goals. Are you taking out Alex Steeves if he keeps playing like this?
All it takes is one dip in play from someone else and Pacioretty is right back in, but he has been hurt a few times now on rather innocuous plays, and he has just five goals and 13 points in 37 games. He’s not exactly a player they can bank on at this point.
