Well, that trade deadline escalated quickly.

Only a few weeks ago, we discussed how wide open the East felt, a take that aged like milk. Suddenly, an arms race broke out, and the battle is on. 

While Friday seems like an eternity ago, I wanted to share some thoughts to wrap up a big week.

Firstly, prices were high across the board. Useful veterans like Luke Schenn netted multiple picks, including a second-rounder. The Leafs acquired him two years ago — when he was a much better age and having a much better season — for just a third. While he was a pending UFA then, his $2.75 million price tag is not exactly a homerun at this stage. Brandon Tanev also cost Winnipeg a second; we have seen veterans like this move for less over the years. Last season, for example, Brandon Duhaime cost a third. The New York Rangers also acquired Alex Wennberg for the same second + fourth package.

It’s not difficult to see why prices were so high — not many teams sold. In total, there were just 21 trades compared to 23 the year before. A collection of teams just outside the playoffs that had been building for years felt that they didn’t need to add more picks, choosing instead to try to stay competitive, such as Utah and Montreal. There is also a collection of teams that are largely kidding themselves.

You have to commend the Bruins for seeing the bigger picture and selling aggressively to kickstart a proper retool/rebuild/whatever they want to label it. We could argue teams like the Vancouver Canucks, New York Islanders, and St. Louis Blues should have done the exact same thing; because they didn’t and because a collection of perennial bottom-feeders are now in the thick of it (Columbus, Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa), there just weren’t a ton of options. Hence, the available players cost a ton.

In the Atlantic, in particular, four teams improved.

The Panthers have had a hole on right defense all season due to the departure of Brandon Montour last summer. Add in OEL leaving as well, and they’ve generally lacked quality on defense. Now, they are back to a proper veteran top-four on defense with two lefties and two righties, and they’ve pushed Dmitry Kulikov to the bottom pairing. The Panthers are eighth in the league in goals for and seventh in the league in goals against, and they already looked very good once they rounded out their defense. Then they went and added Brad Marchand, too. 

Marchand isn’t the superstar he once was, but he’s still very productive; he already has 21 goals, and he’s producing .77 points per game while averaging his lowest time-on-ice per game in eight years on a poor Bruins team. He’ll fit in well in a secondary role on a stacked Florida team, and it’s hard not to view the Panthers as the cream of the crop of the East. 

The Lightning also improved by adding site-favourite Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand. We mentioned the Leafs’ lack of scoring outside their top six a few weeks ago, and the Lightning were just as underwhelming in this area as the Leafs. Bjorkstrand is a legitimate 20-goal guy, while Gourde can still chip in offense; plus, he’s an excellent play driver up the middle. The Lightning are already second in the league in goals per game and sixth in goals against per game, with one of the best goalies in the NHL backstopping them. 

While the Atlantic is a three-horse race, the Ottawa Senators should also not be overlooked, especially after they improved over the deadline.

The Senators went into the deadline ranking dead last in five-on-five goals. They simply haven’t produced offense at evens, but they are 10th in goals against per game. Their new additions, Dylan Cozens and Fabian Zetterlund, instantly became second and third on their entire team in five-on-five scoring, believe it or not. They have nine double-digit goal-scorers now (the Leafs have seven, if we include Laughton).

The Senators are legitimately deep. The Leafs haven’t beaten them since December 7, 2023, and in their two games against them this season, they’ve scored a total of one goal. 

All three teams pose real challenges, and the Leafs will likely need to beat two to make the Eastern Conference Finals.

Notes

Brandon Carlo, Maple Leafs
Photo: Kyle Ross-USA Today Sports/Imagn Images

–  The Leafs, for the record, did well in addressing their most critical needs. The other right-handed defensemen that were traded this year are:

  • Seth Jones
  • Henri Jokiharju
  • Erik Johnson
  • Luke Schenn
  • Vincent Desharnais (twice)
  • Cody Ceci
  • Alexandre Carrier (traded in December)
  • Jacob Trouba (dramatic fallout earlier this season)

Carrier and Desharnais are the only defensemen under 30 signed with term. While some solid left-handed defensemen were moved, I strongly believe the Leafs needed to acquire a right shot, given that they have three veteran lefties. It’s less than ideal to have defensemen on their off-side in the playoffs, especially among the top four.

The Leafs paid a big price for Brandon Carlo, but he has two more years on his deal after this one, and they secured retention, so he costs only $3.5 million. Among that entire group, I’d argue Carlo best fits their needs (although Carrier was a site-favourite last deadline, has been very good in Montreal, didn’t cost as much, and I still quite like him as well). Carlo’s playoff experience, size, penalty-killing acumen, and age fit the Leafs’ roster well. Making a division rival immediately worse never hurts, either. 

–  One side benefit of the Leafs acquiring Carlo and locking into this defense group of seven is that they don’t have to get involved in the free agent market this summer. There’s always some value to be found in free agency, but by and large, it’s not a very strong market. I would not be lining up to pay Aaron Ekblad or Neal Pionk if either makes it to free agency. The one defenseman I quite liked in this summer’s FA crop, Jonathan Kovacevic, just signed an extension to stay in New Jersey. I assume both Vladislav Gavrikov and Jakub Chychrun will stay right where they are, and pretty quickly, we are into the Cody Cecis and Brian Dumoulins of the world. With both goalies already signed as well, the only focus will be on the forward group, which is obviously Mitch Marner-dependent.

–  The center market was an even trickier market overall. Beyond Scott Laughton, centers of note that were moved included:

  • Brock Nelson
  • Lars Eller
  • Morgan Frost
  • JT Miller/Filip Chytil
  • Mikael Granlund
  • Yanni Gourde
  • Nico Sturm
  • Dylan Cozens/Josh Norris
  • Charlie Coyle/Casey Mittlestadt
  • Mark Jankowski

There were some big trades involving centers swapping spots that the Leafs didn’t have a reasonable chance of getting in on, given the assets moved (Coyle, Cozens, Miller). Beyond that, some interesting options that moved outside of Laughton include Gourde, Granlund, Nelson, and even Eller. The difference is that Laughton is signed through the end of next season. Laughton locked in at just $1.5 million keeps the Leafs’ books really clean for the summer with all of Knies, Tavares, and Marner needing contracts instead of paying big to retain a Nelson or Granlund.

It is the price of doing business, but in the short and medium term, the Leafs did really well, and Laughton helps fill a need on the penalty kill. There are definitely options that we could argue would help them more, but they ran a real risk of paying another hefty price for a few months of a player only to watch him leave this summer. It was nice to have a deadline where the Leafs added pieces that will be here for more than just the immediate springtime.

–  Rather quietly, the Leafs own a decent collection of draft picks in 2025: 2, 3, 5, 5, 6, and 7. They don’t own a first (or fourth), but it’s a reasonably normal draft class presenting the opportunity to add a new wave of prospects, which is noteworthy, as the Leafs did hire Mark Leach from Dallas as their Director of Amateur Scouting with these situations in mind. It’s not a haul of picks, but there’s enough to continue mining value and adding to their cupboards.

The following draft in 2026 is a different story, as they already don’t own a first, second, or fourth pick. We will see how they attempt to address the imbalance; to collect the 2025 draft picks they currently have, they traded down in the first round in 2024 (adding a second) and also moved Timothy Liljegren.

–  In terms of game notes, I would be remiss if I didn’t look back to the San Jose game, as it was a bit alarming to see how the Leafs’ minutes were handled. Their top line did not have it that night, drawing even in shot-attempts against the worst team in the league. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner matched up against an 18-year-old Macklin Celebrini at home, and the shot attempts were 8-3 in Celebrini’s favour at five-on-five. They were legitimately outplayed.

Yes, there are other factors at play in terms of the Leafs’ schedule and travel (a back-to-back) and the Leafs going to five power plays, but they don’t need to play Marner 27:29 and Matthews 25:55 against the Sharks of all teams, especially when they aren’t even playing well. Half the Leafs forward group played 13:19 (Domi) or less, the top guys didn’t have it, and — again — the opponent was the worst team in the league.

After the game, Berube admitted he didn’t manage the ice time well, but we’ve seen this movie so many times with the previous regime that it’s worth noting. All the talk in the summer was about the whole team and everyone needing to contribute. The ice can’t be this lopsided in favour of the top players now that spring is approaching. It’s something to monitor down the stretch.

Quotes

Craig Berube, William Nylander, Maple Leafs bench
Photo: Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports

We are frustrated, I think. I (actually) wouldn’t say frustrated; we are making too many mistakes and giving up too many goals. We had a good meeting this morning. The guys spoke. We are trying to get this thing straightened out.

– Craig Berube following the Leafs’ third straight loss

Since Matthews returned on January 4, the Leafs are third in the league in goals per game at 3.42 per night. In the same period, they are 25th in goals against per game at 3.29. This is not to imply that it’s on Matthews in particular; it’s to suggest that this has been an issue for a while now, and the Leafs really need to clean it up in their final 19 games.

They are no longer grinding opponents down. If we look at the Colorado or Vegas games, they are great teams, and the neutral zone was wide open. The Leafs are trading chances, they aren’t tight or defending well, and when teams enter their zone, they are not closing time and space; they are giving them some cushion and allowing them to possess the puck with ease. 

“We like everything about Mitch.

We talked about it at the beginning of the year. We are going to try to handle the business side away from it. I think he has handled everything extremely well.

I get it. You guys have jobs to do. I totally respect that. I just wanted to make sure we came out and addressed it. I support Mitch 1,000%. He is not out here on an island with us. We are trying to worry about winning hockey games.”

– Brad Treliving addressing the Mitch Marner situation

It was the right move by Brad Treliving to address the rumours publicly and throw his support behind Mitch Marner. GMs should protect their players, especially in this market, and the Leafs can’t let this story continue to evolve. The focus really should be on winning at this point. They have burned the boats by now. 

“I’d rather have a lineup full of good players than a bank of a ton of draft picks, because I think ultimately what we’re trying to do is win hockey games.”

– Tampa GM Julien BriseBois after trading multiple first rounders for Yanni Gourde and Olivier Bjorkstrand

The Leafs also traded multiple firsts and prospects in their moves for Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo. While we can debate the players, at the end of the day, this is where the Leafs are at right now as a franchise. It’s the time to be aggressive, and it’s the time to buy. All their competitors are doing the exact same thing.

 

Tweets of the Week

Scott Laughton, Maple Leafs
Photo: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Although he debuted poorly, Scott Laughton is a solid 3C and an excellent penalty killer. At just $1.5 million through next season, he is great value. It’s important that they sort out the right role for him. Namely, we’ll see if this Laughton-Domi sticks; they are a bit like water and oil in terms of what they bring. Sometimes, it turns into a product greater than the sum of its parts. Sometimes, it makes no sense and doesn’t work. It is early yet, but in the right checking/penalty killing/energy role, Laughton will show well.

It’s no coincidence that there are four Bruins on this list, first and foremost. They have received elite goaltending up until this season, and it has buoyed their team across the board. But Brandon Carlo is an excellent defender. He’s disruptive due to his height, reach, and strength, and he has spent a lot of time in a primary shutdown role.

For example, Carlo played more against Matthews than Charlie McAvoy in the last playoffs. He won’t be asked to do that in Toronto with Chris Tanev in the lineup, so we’ll see how it helps the rest of his game in terms of play-driving and setting the table for a more offensive partner.

Another right-handed defender is critical with three veteran lefties already in the Leafs’ mix. Carlo is limited with the puck, but he will make them a better team in their own end. On the PK, he is also in the money spot for most power plays (right-handed one-timers). On Saturday night, Nathan MacKinnon scored the game-winning power-play goal on the right side with OEL defending because Tanev was out of the lineup.

Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner generally rates as one of the better lines in the league, but the results have been a bit underwhelming this season, all things considered. They are up just 26-21 in five-on-five goals (roughly 55 percent), which is fine, but nowhere near elite. For example, the Draisaitl – McDavid – Hyman line is up 22-9 (roughly 70 percent). The Protas-Strome-Ovechkin line is at 20-8 (roughly 71 percent). Guentzel-Point-Kucherov are up 33-21 (61 percent).

The Leafs’ top line isn’t tilting the goal total count in their favour as heavily as they should, and while they take on tough matchups night in and night out, they also give up quite a bit defensively. Knies is enjoying a breakout season, and Marner has been their best player/is tied for sixth in league scoring. Much of it does fall on Matthews needing to be more assertive and dominate the middle of the ice. We’ve said it nearly every week at this point, but he’s capable of so much more than what we’ve seen this season.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

Bobby McMann, Toronto Maple Leafs
Photo: John E. Sokolowski/USA TODAY Sports

1.    I think I am encouraged by the fact that Bobby McMann was back up on the second line in practice. I have no idea why they went away from this. In four March games so far, McMann is averaging just 12:43 per night, which is his lowest of *any* month this season. Against Colorado, in what was arguably the fastest game the Leafs have played in this season, McMann played just 10:44.

We have continued to flag this with McMann on the third line, but these ice-time numbers are far too low for him. He is, without question, their sixth-best forward. I don’t even think it’s close, to be honest. I understand they rely on him to drive the third line, but if they are going to spread it out, they should actually spread it out. Don’t load up the five best forwards in the top six, then tell the sixth to drive the third line. It’s a half measure, and the results are what they are.

McMann is sixth on the team in goals and will likely be the Leafs’ sixth and final player to hit the 20-goal mark this season (he’s currently at 17). He also brings a rare combination of size/strength/speed to this team and needs to be played accordingly.

2.   I also think the Leafs don’t have 12 forwards that are better than Calle Jarnkrok. It’s unclear if he’s a healthy scratch or if they are managing his return from surgery, but he’s a legitimate NHL veteran who is good defensively. He will help a team that has been bleeding on their own side of the ice for months now. I’d like to see Jarnkrok play with Max Domi and Scott Laughton to see how the trio comes together. It’s a smaller line, but it’s three veterans who have all been productive in the league.

3.    I can’t believe it even needs to be said, but Simon Benoit–Philippe Myers really shouldn’t be a pairing. We always have to be careful with single-game stats, but they were out-attempted 19-6 at five-on-five, and it looked as expected. Neither is particularly strong with the puck on their stick, and they struggle to make proper breakout passes. You can’t only turn the puck off the boards/glass against a good team; they will reload and attack again. They both need to dress right now, but the coaching staff needs to give them a chance to succeed.

4.    With Chris Tanev out of the lineup, I think the Leafs need to split up the pairings, but here is the issue: They don’t want to play Morgan Rielly head-to-head against top lines and have avoided doing it all season. That means Jake McCabe–Oliver-Ekman-Larsson takes on the top matchup, while Rielly-Carlo sees time together because they want it to be their second pairing, and they need time to gel.

I get all of that, but this third pairing is untenable. That means they either need to lock into a proper matchup pairing of McCabe-Carlo, or even OEL-Carlo, then split up the other two to pair with Benoit and Myers. I would personally run McCabe-Carlo, Benoit-OEL, and Rielly-Myers.

When Tanev returns, he will be reunited with McCabe, leaving one of OEL or Rielly to play with Carlo while the other plays with Benoit or Myers. Rielly-Myers or Benoit-OEL are the two pairings that make the most sense for that eventual third pairing, giving them more looks at both to see how they come together. Plus, they can reunite the Rielly-OEL pairing for key shifts throughout the game and work around it.

5.   I think I would start Joseph Woll against Utah and then Anthony Stolarz against Florida, no matter what. Whoever plays better takes the Ottawa Senators start on Saturday.

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