The Toronto Marlies advanced to the North Division Final via the most challenging route possible. After defeating the Rochester Americans 2-1 in the play-in round, they upset the regular-season division champs, Laval, in five games. Now, the Cleveland Monsters stand between the Marlies and the Conference Final.
Regular Season Series
These two teams battled it out down the stretch for the coveted third spot to avoid the first-round play-in series. Cleveland eventually prevailed, but Toronto fared relatively well in the regular-season encounters.
Regular readers will know that Cleveland had, until recently, been Toronto’s kryptonite. In the previous five seasons, the Marlies have won just nine of the 34 meetings.
At home in 2025-26, the Marlies won three of four in regulation, losing the fourth in a shootout. Cleveland’s Rocket Arena is a difficult barn in which to earn a result, but Toronto’s 1-1-2 record wasn’t terrible when we consider the two shootout losses. The Marlies won the last two encounters between the teams in March, scoring 11 goals in the process.
Playoff Series
Toronto and Cleveland have met just twice in postseason play. The first occasion was in 2019 (Toronto won 4-0), and the second came last year. Cleveland swept aside Toronto 2-0 in the play-in round before falling to Laval. This will be another five-game series in which Cleveland holds home-ice advantage.
Both teams had strong home records through the regular season, but it’s on the road where success has been earned in the playoffs so far. Toronto won two of three in Laval, including the decisive Game 5. After splitting two games at home, Cleveland won consecutive games in Syracuse to win the series.
Similar to the Laval series, the Marlies will be looking for at least a split before the series returns home. Cleveland has proven to be excellent front-runners, and Toronto can ill-afford to spot them a decisive series lead.
Starting On Time & the Five-on-Five Play
Both teams are notoriously slow starters in terms of first-period scoring.
The Monsters finished the season with a minus-20 goal differential at five-on-five play. They scored 132 goals and relied on winning the special teams battle. Cleveland earned a chunk of points this season by being a tough out in regulation, with 22 games requiring OT/SO, in which they picked up the extra point on 13 occasions (they led the Eastern Conference with 10 OT wins).
Notably, the Monsters did pepper the net with shots in the first period this season. They ranked first in the East (fifth overall) in terms of shots on goal in the opening frame.
Overall, they’re a fairly similar opponent to Laval. They can challenge you with speed and a high-energy effort over all four lines, but they’re also physically engaged and eager to crash the net.
Special Teams
Toronto and Cleveland’s special teams were equally matched in terms of overall output in the regular season.
If the Marlies can remain composed — as they have done for the most part during the post-season — it could be a competitive edge. Cleveland’s 307 minor penalties were the 10th most in the regular season, although they did dial it down against Toronto (20 penalties in eight games).
Toronto’s struggling power play enjoyed regular-season success against this opponent, striking at 25% despite drawing just 16 penalties in the season series.
Luca Del Bel Belluz, Mikael Pyyhtiä, Owen Sillinger, and Luca Pinelli combined for 29 of Cleveland’s 43 goals this past season. The key for Toronto will be quieting Del Bel Belluz, who registered a team-leading 18 power play assists and nine goals.
Goaltending
Ivan Fedotov was the primary starter for the Monsters in the regular season, but the tables have turned in postseason play. Zach Sawchenko has been handed the reins and has responded with three victories in all of his starts. He will be chock full of confidence with a 1.51 GAA and a .946 save percentage heading into this series. There is one question mark surrounding him and Fedotov, though: neither excelled against Toronto in the regular-season series, and the Marlies now own considerably more offensive firepower.
As I’ve said before, I would match the Marlies’ goaltending tandem against any in the AHL with relative confidence. John Gruden has consistently turned to Artur Akhtyamov, and the “King” has yet to let the team down.
I’ve posted it twice already, so why not for a third time? In the words of John Gruden, “We are very fortunate to have two outstanding goaltenders. We’re more concerned as a staff to make sure we’re playing the right way in front of whoever is in net. If it’s Dennis or Artie, we are confident either way.”
Offensive Producers
Unlike the series against Laval, the Marlies should hold the edge in five-on-five scoring. If we compiled the top 11 five-on-five scorers between the two teams, eight would be Marlies players, including all of the top five.
Only three Cleveland players accrued 20+ points at five-on-five, and those names aren’t surprising: rookie Luca Pinelli, Hunter McKown, and the aforementioned Del Bel Belluz have led the way for the Monsters. The latter pair have carried their form into the playoffs and will be key figures for Toronto to shut down. Roman Ahcan has been a Marlie killer recently, registering six points (4G/2A) against Toronto during the regular-season series.
The Marlies’ scoring depth should be a huge asset, but converting on early chances will be important against a Monsters team that has the uncanny ability to stick around in games and find a way to win. In the regular-season series, Logan Shaw (4G/8A), Ryan Tverberg (3G/6A), Alex Nylander (3G/5A), and Bo Groulx (five goals in six games) led the way for Toronto offensively.
Recent form
Cleveland also upset the odds in the previous round by defeating second seed Syracuse. While they’ve only played four games in the playoffs compared to Toronto’s eight, Cleveland emptied some gas from their tank in an enthralling series. Game 3 of the series took just seven minutes of overtime to solve, but Game 4 required a third period of overtime.
With three victories by one-goal margins, Cleveland showed its knack for finding ways to come out on the right side of tightly contested games. They won’t be short on confidence, especially facing a Toronto team whose number they have had in previous seasons.
The Marlies, meanwhile, won a pair of series deciders and prevailed against Laval as the underdog. They should also be brimming with confidence, and several members of this roster should feel there is unfinished business against Cleveland.
Series Prediction
This series will be as tight to call as the previous one.
With Cleveland proving itself as an excellent front-running team, Toronto cannot afford to feed into the third seed’s strength. Staying out of the box and making Cleveland play the game at five-on-five should favour Toronto.
This could end up as a coin-flip series, but there is something about this Marlies team that stands in stark contrast to the previous few years. I’ll go out on a limb and predict Toronto to win it in four games, but no result would really surprise me.
Marlies vs. Monsters Third Round Series Schedule
| - | Date | Location | Time (EST)/Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | May 14 | Cleveland | 7:00 p.m. |
| Game 2 | May 16 | Cleveland | 7:00 p.m. |
| Game 3 | May 20 | Toronto | 7:00 p.m. |
| Game 4* | May 22 | Toronto | 7:00 p.m. |
| Game 5* | May 24 | Cleveland | 3:00 p.m. |
